Defense spending in the Southeast Asia (SEA) has been experiencing an upward trajectory during the last decade amidst the escalating rivalry between the United States (US) and China in the Indo-Pacific region. SEA countries are pouring billions of dollars into modernizing their army, navy and air force with next generation tanks, warships, aircrafts and missiles. Since 2013, there has been a notable increase in defense spending across the majority of SEA nations. In the past decade, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam have either acquired or are planning to procure advanced military assets, including next-generation fighters, frigates, submarines, anti-ship missiles, and other sophisticated platforms. The analysis of data from the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) reveals that this group allocated a total of $60.9 billion towards weapons procurement and defense research and development over the period from 2013 to 2022, adjusted to constant 2015 US dollars. The ongoing military build-up in Southeast Asia warrants close examination, especially given the heightened intensity of US-China strategic rivalry that has characterized this change. This piece delves into analyzing reasonable causes behind the burgeoning arms stockpile and the outcome of this change in the context of Sino-US strategic rivalry in the Indo-Pacific region.
SEA Countries amidst the Sino-US Rivalry in the Indo-Pacific
In the context of 21st century geopolitics, the US and China have emerged as two competing states involved in a significant power rivalry. China has been contesting the dominance of the US, which is considered the preeminent power in both economic and military aspects. Eventually, China officially launched the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2013. Since then, China has been swiftly enhancing its economic and military strengths while strategically positioning itself in critical geographic areas globally, with a particular focus on the SEA region. The US has articulated its Indo-Pacific strategy as a countermeasure to China’s BRI, positioning it as a response to perceived threats from China. The Indo-Pacific Strategy identifies the SEA region as the single most consequential region for America’s future. In the current context, smaller powers within the SEA region are encountering challenges in developing their independent foreign and military policies. Their efforts to uphold impartiality in the ongoing competition between the US and China are proving to be challenging day by day. Strategic hedging has been a favored approach for smaller powers engaged in competitive dynamics. However, International Relations experts argue that strategic hedging is also becoming difficult for small powers in the current era. As a consequence, SEA countries are keen to acquiring modern military equipment to bolster their preparedness for the possible break out of any potential conflict in the region. They are forced to embrace this strategy because there is no superpower that can ensure their security. Therefore, the self-help policy appears to be the ideal option for the SEA nations to maneuver the great power rivalry.
Arms Flow in the SEA Region
Over the past few years, Philippines has been eyeing upgrading its military with American Typhon ballistic missiles and advanced fighter jets. Philippines government is set to spend $35 billion to modernize its defense in the face of growing regional tensions. The country is acquiring four warships from South Korea’s Hyundai Heavy Industries for nearly $1 billion as well. Previously, Philippines was handed over three Hamilton class cutters by the US under the EDA program. The country recently garnered attention by revealing a $375 million acquisition of BrahMos missiles from India. Moreover, in 2024, the US Army deployed the Typhon missile system in Philippines, a land-based weapon that can fire the SM-6 and the Tomahawk Land Attack Cruise Missile. It sparked stark warning from China accusing Philippines and the US responsible for regional instability. It is noteworthy that, since 2005, the US delivered more than $17 billion in foreign military sales to SEA States, providing world-class capabilities to address their security needs. In response to Sino-US rivalry in the Indo-Pacific region, Indonesia has responded by enhancing its naval capabilities, including the acquisition of two Scorpène-class submarines from France and multiple surface warships in recent years. Indonesia partnered with Japan and agreed to commence joint development of new naval vessels to bolster Indonesia’s maritime security. The country is also acquiring 42 Dassault Rafale and 24 F-15EX 4.5th generation multirole fighter jets from France and the US respectively with a view to achieving air superiority along with ageing American F-16 and Russian SU-30 Flankers.
Vietnam perceives China’s “expansionist” actions as a significant threat to its territorial and jurisdictional assertions in the South China Sea. Since the early 1990s, there has been a strategic effort to enhance the capabilities of its armed forces through the acquisition of modern fighter jets and submarines, aimed at deterring potential threats from China. Vietnam recently unveiled their indigenous surface to surface cruise missile VCM-01A and is nearing the acquisition of the BrahMos supersonic missile from India for a staggering cost of $700 million. The country currently operates a fleet of Russian origin SU-27 and SU-30 flanker jets in their air force. Malaysia is likely to incorporate new surface-to-surface Naval Strike Missile (NSM) from Norwegian Kongsberg Company on one of its Lekiu-class frigates. Malaysian armed forces reportedly purchased a fleet of American made F/A-18 Hornet fighter jets last year, designed for naval strike mission especially.
Surging Arms Stockpile: Arms Race or Deterrence?
Military expenditure in the SEA region surged significantly during the last decade according to SIPRI datasets. Military expenditure increases in the SEA region began in 2013, when expenditures leapt from $34 billion to $38 billion and have been growing since. Latest data released by SIPRI shows a sum of $47.8 billion military expenditure among the SEA countries in 2023. It indicates around 1.3 times increase in total military expenditures between 2013 and 2023. However, analysts are not keen to denote the upsurge in military spending as arms race in the SEA region in response to burgeoning Sino-US competition. Academics describe an arms race as a dynamic process in which two or more actors see each other as a clear and present threat, ramp up defense expenditure as a proportion of GDP, and strive to match each other’s military strengths. Two historical instances include the Cold War nuclear arms race and the Anglo-German naval conflict before World War I. Fortunately; however, Southeast Asia does not yet have this dynamic. During the Cold War era, SEA nations reallocated resources from defense to prioritize economic development. Their military forces, primarily focused on addressing internal political challenges rather than external threats, perceived little necessity for modernizing their weaponry. The Sino-US rivalry in the Indo-Pacific region marked a significant shift, coinciding with the economic expansion observed in SEA nations. It is essential for them to possess defense capabilities that align with their size, as well as to maintain deterrence in the event of a territorial dispute between the US and China. However, the growing interest and involvement of European countries, China, India and the US may well end the relatively benign security landscape that Southeast Asia has enjoyed for the last two decades.