On February 13th , President Donald Trump for the first met with his counterpart PM Narendra Modi in Washington aftermath his landslide re-election, tariff wars and furthermore, leaving behind the tariff bombs, important decisions were made which were key for India’s national security and defence development. Further, events vis-à-vis President Trump’s scepticism about alliances and imposition of tariffs on aluminium and steel makes it imperative for New Delhi to proactively engage with great powers through choice based on its commitment towards ensuring a stable regional balance of power.
Tools of Cooperation
In the contemporary past, Modi and Trump enjoyed trustworthy and resilient relations , which could be witnessed through revival of partnerships, frequently held 2+2 high level mechanisms, which were key in mitigating key traditional cum non-traditional security challenges emanating during dire times such as pandemics, territorial conflicts etc. Moreover, popular diasporic outreach were also elements of success being witnessed with the two leaders hosting shows or events in renowned stadiums being key in constructively engaging with citizens .
Even, in the midst of the election campaigning process, President Trump referred to PM Modi as a close friend and also vowed to nudge ties with him in case he came to power likewise old times when ties ushered when the vision of the QUAD on mustering a free Indo Pacific Order was re-envisioned in 2017 and also the relations witnessed an upward trend, paving way towards a Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership .
Hereafter, a key issue where both leaders need to collaborate on are the growing disillusionment furthering through rising Sikh extremism in Canada, which has furthered a deadlock in ties between the New Delhi and Ottawa where Washington could play a constructive role in being a key negotiator to keep checks and balances vis-à-vis rising refutation of New Delhi’s narrative in tackling nationalist extremism.
Regional Impasse To be Seen
Furthermore, coming to neighbourhood impasse, Bangladesh and Pakistan are witnessing political turbulence which need assessment and clarity where security risks emerging from extremism and nationalism cannot be counted out from discourse . Therefore, only way fruitful discussion and solutions could only come through collaborating, exchanging views in forums and non-state actors should be given an open space for exchanging ideas, knowledge.
Seeing the atrocities being carried out against Hindu Minorities in Bangladesh amidst the ouster of Former longtime PM Sheikh Hasina , President Trump has raised concern regarding the current situation and also felt that the Yunus government needs to have a broader approach towards communities to ensure peace in areas where communal violence is immanent.
Even, coming to terrorism, the two countries during the Mo-Trump Summit, raised concerns regarding increasing non-traditional security threats emanating from Islamabad’s proxy warfare where even Washington acknowledged the extradition of 26/11 accused Tahawwur Rana and further, Pakistan’s belllgerence through state sponsored terrorism was challenged through understanding and discussion.
Moreover, the two countries will continue to engage in the Indo Pacific and multilateral frameworks such as the QUAD and ensure robustness in ties to foster a rule-based order. But for New Delhi, media reports underscore the need for options to be open for New Delhi due to Trump’s protectionist policies based on the ‘Making America Great Again ‘approach and his scepticism of alliances which are key in determining the structure of a multipolar world . In positive light, New Delhi could use the ‘Make India Great Again’ narrative its motto to achieve gains in the interconnected global market.
An Assertive China Policy and Alternative Partners
Thus, coming to Beijing’s silent rise, the cry for deterrence and security vis-à-vis maybe upending, coming to the grey zone warfare capabilities gained in contemporary times. President Trump will be tougher on China vis-à-vis tariffs and technological aspect, where even the latter has alternative action plans ready coming to Taiwan , semiconductor chip supply .
Hence, partnerships and collaborations will be key for President Trump to keep Washington’s global stature at the same dominant pace so that the smaller powers have trust in the US led global order and keep equidistant from the Chinese and other of its initiatives. In order to keep the trade moving at a proper pace, market incentives should be given to India if a trade balance is imperative to move at an equilibrist pace coming to trading and furthering B2B relations.
Amidst neo-Cold War dynamics, New Delhi maybe a key strategic partner which could relied on vis-à-vis China and could even act as a bridge for conflict zones of Ukraine and Middle East so that the assurance towards allies is not compromised upon and in case if Ukrainians are wary about President Trump’s radical stances, middle powers will play a key role in decision making and building regional stability in the case of Kyiv’s security and survival.
Ushering Defence and Technological Ties To Play a Key Role in Multilateral Frameworks
Recently, US-India trade soared in 10 years to USD$ 191 billion as per media statements. This gives an incentive for New Delhi to play balancing role in shaping geopolitical narratives in order to make US pro India in business, defence. However, if trade imbalance occurs due to increased tariffs, then investor trust would be shrouded and isolationist policies will reduce dependency on neoliberal American market where alternative spaces could be looked at for multiple investments . Furthermore, a goal was determined to be reached by 2030 where the bilateral trade would be soaring towards USD$ 500 billion.
Factually, defence trade has also soared between two countries based on converging regional threats where New Delhi has received defence procurements worth USD$ 20 billion. Also during the recent visit , F-35 fighter, C-130J Herculese along with Javelin” Anti-Tank Guided Missiles and “Stryker” Infantry Combat Vehicles were given inclusion in India’s defence inventory which are key tackling multidimensional belligerent tactics.
In order to move defense ties trustworthily and transparently ,a Reciprocal Defense Procurement (RDP) agreement maybe seen as an option to enable future exchange of defense procurement.
Hence, in order to keep ties moving at an equilibrist pace, New Delhi could use this TRUST (“Transforming the Relationship Utilizing Strategic Technology”) opportunity to attract multiple American investors which are key for the Indian market where Public Private Partnership models could prove viable for Small Scale Medium Enterprises and foreign investors which aspire to contribute towards energy security, semiconductor supply .
Thus, noting the aforementioned developments, India and US could collaborate on space technology, non-conventional cum technological threats through intelligence-based system development alongside maritime cooperation to ensure robust sea lanes of navigation. Moreover, the QUAD is a key framework for the two democracies to collaborate and come to a common ground on important issues such as terrorism, climate change , artificial intelligence, equitable exploration in outer space.
Coming to the Indian Ocean Region’s upending geopolitical impasse, the US recognises India as a net security provider and further supports the latter for development of undersea cables with a covering distance of 50,000 km spanning five continents.
What Lies Ahead
Coming to New Delhi’s changing diplomatic postures and multi-aligning initiatives , building a bonhomieship with Kremlin should still continue and further, the latter could act as a peacemaker in between both where PM Modi has even warm ties with President Putin whom could listen to the former as per what he reiterates that war is not the way to peace and the latter is essential in ending the war sooner. Coming to defence ties, New Delhi’s dependence on Moscow may witness sluggishness, making it an incentive to foster further ties with Washington coming to defence trade which could be seen through a viable signing of a 10 year agreement known as the Indo-US Major Defense Partnership of the 21st Century
Here, multilateral frameworks shouldn’t be ignored by the new administration and the organisations such as BRICS, I2U2 , IMEC, G20, as well as ISA, CDRI could be seen as bridges to fostering international cooperation and sustainable development .Furthermore, India and US have a special relationship for decades and with this new administration there doesn’t seem to be any alteration or change in trajectory in ties , the importance of New Delhi will only further in the eyes of great powers.
Even though there is a tariff cum trade issue prevailing, India should nevertheless be viewed as a partner which could be relied upon for multilateral mechanisms and business initiatives in the information age.