PHOENIX — Which Los Angeles newcomer will have a better season, Roki Sasaki or Luka Doncic?
“Being biased,” Dave Roberts said with a hearty laugh, “I hope it’s Roki.”
The safer pick would be Doncic, of course, the Lakers’ trade-deadline prize already a consensus top-three player in the NBA. That Roberts could even fantasize of the possibility of Sasaki outperforming Doncic speaks to the 23-year-old’s potential.
Sasaki has the talent to be an instant sensation the way Fernando Valenzuela or Hideo Nomo were in previous generations. The 6-foot-4 right-hander could just as easily become the Japanese Bobby Miller, a hard-thrower who betrays the expectations of a radar-gun-obsessed front office.
Clearly, the Dodgers have an optimistic view of Sasaki, with Roberts saying on Wednesday that he could start the second game of the season-opening two-game series in Tokyo against the Chicago Cubs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto is expected to pitch the series opener.
General manager Brandon Gomes compared Sasaki last month to Paul Skenes of the Pittsburgh Pirates, and some team officials have said they think Sasaki could be one of the best pitchers in baseball this season.
Then again, the Dodgers also believed Miller would emerge as a frontline pitcher last year. Miller finished the season with a 8.52 earned-run average and was excluded from the postseason roster.
“Just talking to the scouts, when he pitches, I think he’s going to be very good,” Roberts said of Sasaki. “I don’t think anyone knows the body of work that’s going to come this year.
“I’m just as curious as everyone else is.”
Roberts watched Sasaki throw in person for the first time on Wednesday. With Austin Barnes behind the plate and about 100 Japanese reporters watching nearby, Sasaki threw a 35-pitch bullpen session on a minor-league field at the Dodgers’ spring-training complex.
At one point, a splitter uncorked by Sasaki prompted Barnes to scream, “Oh, my God!”
“The split-finger is different,” Barnes said. “I haven’t really seen a pitch like that before.”
How is his splitter different?
“It tumbles a lot,” he said. “Probably low [spin], I would guess. Goes different directions. Obviously, that’s a big pitch for him.”
The other main pitch for Sasaki is his fastball, which was clocked as high as 102.5 mph when he was in Japan. His slider is considered a work in progress, as he experimented with slow and fast variations of the pitch in his last couple of seasons with the Chiba Lotte Marines.
Asked if Sasaki’s slider was major-league ready, Roberts replied, “I think we’re going to kind of suss that out. Certainly, the fastball and the split are his two dominant pitches and ultimately the hitters will tell us his comfort level with something that he can spin going away from a right-handed hitter.”
What if Sasaki’s slider doesn’t play? Can Sasaki thrive, or even survive, as a two-pitch starter, especially when some observers have questioned whether his fastball is too flat?
“I”m sure he’ll make adjustments,” Barnes said.
Efforts by Sasaki to expand his arsenal should be expedited by his athleticism, Gomes said last month.
“I think anytime you have somebody as athletic and explosive as he is, generally, the ability to make adjustments and pick up things quickly comes,” Gomes said.
For now, Sasaki said his focus was on his two primary pitches.
“My fastball and splitter weren’t good last year,” he said in Japanese. “I want to take care of that first this year.”
Sasaki’s ERA was 2.35 last season with the Marines, up from 1.78 the season before that.
Sasaki wasn’t nearly as accomplished in Japan as Yamamoto, who was a three-time most valuable player. He doesn’t exude as much confidence as Shohei Ohtani, who speaks with the composure of a veteran statesman.
“Inside, I’m really nervous,” Sasaki said of being in camp with the Dodgers.
Sasaki acknowledged he was uncertain of where he was as a pitcher, of what he had to do to become the pitcher he wanted to be.
“Until I throw in the major leagues, I won’t know what I’m lacking or what I have to do to perform well,” he said.
The answers will be revealed in the coming weeks and months.