The political landscape of West Africa is undergoing a profound transformation, marked by the recent decision of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger to withdraw from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and form the Alliance of Sahel States (AES). 

This bold move, celebrated by mass rallies across the three countries on Jan. 28, has sent shockwaves through the region, raising important questions about the future of regional cooperation, stability, and security. While these rallies displayed political affirmation, they also cast a shadow over the long-term implications for regional unity. 

This break from ECOWAS comes at a time of escalating instability in West Africa, where insecurity, humanitarian crises, and development challenges have become pervasive. The AES’s decision to part ways with ECOWAS stems primarily from dissatisfaction with regional political practices and a desire to assert their path.

Dr Muhammad Abdullahi, a lecturer and development administration expert at the University of Maiduguri, Borno State, in northeastern Nigeria, expressed concern about the growing complexities of regional stabilisation in West Africa. He warned that the withdrawal could fragment collective efforts to address persistent challenges such as terrorism, economic dependence, and political instability.

“The withdrawal of these nations poses significant challenges, especially in the face of persistent threats such as terrorism, economic dependence, and political instability,” Dr Umar, who specialises in sustainable and resilient development, peace and conflict management in the Lake Chad region, told HumAngle. “This move risks weakening collective efforts to address these issues and could lead to further fragmentation among West African states.” 

Despite the AES’s claim that its new confederation will strengthen regional security independently, critics argue that this division may only benefit armed groups operating in the porous Sahelian landscape. The absence of a united front could erode collective defence mechanisms, leaving individual states more vulnerable to external and internal threats.

The economic ramifications of the break are also profound. ECOWAS has long provided a framework for the free movement of people and goods within the region. With the three Sahelian countries forming their bloc, the stability of trade and economic relations within the region is at risk. Restrictions on movement, trade, and border controls could further exacerbate economic hardship in countries already struggling with the consequences of conflict and humanitarian crises.

In response to the withdrawal, ECOWAS has reaffirmed its commitment to regional solidarity, pledging to minimise disruptions to citizens and businesses during the transition. While the political disengagement marks a significant shift within the bloc, ECOWAS has stressed the continued importance of socio-economic and humanitarian cooperation. A press statement released on Jan. 29 reassured the public that ECOWAS would continue to recognise the national passports and identity cards of citizens from the three nations, and that trade and economic activities between the affected countries and other ECOWAS member states would remain governed by the ECOWAS Trade Liberalisation Scheme (ETLS).

ECOWAS also emphasised that citizens of the three withdrawing countries would retain their visa-free movement rights, residence, and establishment privileges until further notice. Furthermore, the regional body set up a framework for continued dialogue with the governments of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, aiming to mitigate confusion and disruption during this period of transition.

“The right of visa-free movement, residence, and establishment in accordance with the ECOWAS protocols until further notice. Provide full support and cooperation to ECOWAS officials from the three countries in the course of their assignments for the Community,” the statement noted. 

“The Commission has set up a structure to facilitate discussions on these modalities with each of the three countries. This message is necessary to avoid confusion and disruption in the lives and businesses of our people during this transition period,” the statement added.

Manpaa Aliyu Musa, a professor of political economy and public administration at the University of Maiduguri, described the situation as sad while noting that the withdrawal comes at a critical time. “It is a sad development, not only for the countries of the Lake Chad Basin but also for the entire Sahel and Sub-Saharan Africa. The entire region is engulfed in catastrophic human disasters triggered by resource-based violent conflicts, the effects of climate change, population explosion, and forced migration,” he noted.  

Speaking on the implications of the exit and the formation of an alternative bloc, Prof. Musa said, “This move has significant negative consequences in several areas. This will undoubtedly be a stumbling block to the hard-earned stability achieved so far. It will undermine regional efforts to combat transborder crimes such as trafficking in small arms and light weapons, drug smuggling, and even human trafficking.” 

“This is particularly concerning given the porous nature of our borders and the deep social and cultural ties among communities, making it difficult to discern national identities,” he said.

Musa’s concerns go beyond the present time. While highlighting the vision of the region’s founding leaders, he recalled the efforts of the previous generation who contributed to establishing regional bodies like the Lake Chad Basin Commission (LCBC). “Their main objectives went beyond managing the waters of Lake Chad. They envisioned regional integration and stabilisation, demonstrating foresight in leadership. Even in times of relative peace, they were able to foresee the conflicts we face today,” Prof. Musa told HumAngle.  

Similarly, Musa spoke about the potential impact of the three countries’ exit on democratic governance across Africa, saying “this development could embolden other countries to embark on military coups, as it highlights the failure of strong deterrent measures against unconstitutional government changes.”

While the withdrawal of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger represents a significant challenge to the vision of regional integration, ECOWAS remains hopeful that dialogue will pave the way for future cooperation.