BOURNEMOUTH have defied expectations to be one of the Premier League’s great heavy-hitting underdogs so far this season.
Under Andoni Iraola’s tutelage, the Cherries find themselves 7th in the league and on a 12-match unbeaten run in all competitions.
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This run has included big wins over Tottenham, Manchester United, Newcastle and Nottingham Forest.
However, when looking at the underlying numbers, Bournemouth unbelievably appear to have room to get even better.
Their game model and style have highlighted a tale of smart recruitment paired with savvy tactics reminiscent of Leeds at their best under Marcelo Bielsa.
This weekend sees the south coast outfit take on their toughest test of the lot in Liverpool, so how can might they look to foil Arne Slot‘s table toppers.
A suffocating press
Bournemouth football this season has caught many by surprise with how aggressive and front-footed it is.
While many clubs lower down the league might be content to accept their limitations and play within themselves against the top sides, Bournemouth have no such fears.
Instead they are exceptionally disciplined and hardworking out of possession while being brave in their approach and the way they look to prevent the opposition from playing out from the back.
The key for Iraola and Bournemouth is players are willing to step right-up as the opposition look to find ways to progress the ball from their defensive third.
Iraola almost exclusively has lined his side up in a 4-2-3-1 system this season.
The striker and the three advanced midfielders will press and be aggressive while the two deeper midfielders take charge of defending the space and step high to press and follow opposition players deep.
When they are pressing and working against the ball in these kind of areas they put numbers into central areas and cut off any easy passing options into the middle of the pitch.
This can mean that their wide midfielders come inside and narrow off leaving the opposition fullbacks in more space.
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While this does appear to give the opposition a chance to play out and into space it is a deliberate act as Bournemouth are hoping to force the opposition to play quickly to one of their fullbacks.
In the match against Liverpool there will be an inherent risk in possibly freeing up Trent Alexander-Arnold to receive due to his excellent passing ability.
As one of the Bournemouth wide attackers narrow off, at least one midfield player will be instructed to pick Alexander-Arnold up man to man to prevent this risk.
Liverpool are a team that are more used to having space and time in the initial phase of their build-up.
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Teams generally sit off and allow the central defenders in particular to have the ball and as such Liverpool do not typically go long.
Bournemouth will react and work aggressively to press high and force mistakes or longer passes from Liverpool as they look to turn the ball over quickly.
Aggressive counter attacks
While the overarching principle we see from Iraola’s side out of possession is to be aggressive in winning the ball back as high up the pitch as possible, this also informs one of their key attacking principles.
When you watch Bournemouth they will look to regain possession before quickly releasing numbers into attacking positions to create overloads and take advantage of the opposition being caught off balance.
Bournemouth tend to release one of their deeper midfielders and, at times, both of their fullbacks as they really look to aggressively send players forward to quickly attack on the counter.
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Liverpool are used to being the dominant attacking team in their matches so will likely seek to push players higher.
This will represent an opportunity for Bournemouth to quickly attack on the counter or in transition, with a devastating array of options.
This aggressive counter attacking style not only comes down to having players making forward runs to quickly attack an unbalanced defence, but also in them looking for aggressive forward passes to release these runners.
Bournemouth are not a team who typically look to reset and retain possession.
They average the 6th lowest possession in the league – 46.1 per cent – and this is because they want to quickly attack the opposition with aggressive passes whenever they regain possession.
This very deliberate attacking style is designed to take advantage the opposition not being organised defensively.
By attacking quickly in this manner Bournemouth can exploit this lack of defensive organisation.
This extends to Liverpool who are willing to trust the pace of their defenders to get back into defensive positions in order to defend against the counter attack.
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Bournemouth will be brave and aggressive in terms of quickly looking to attack Liverpool on the counter attack.
It will be fascinating to see whether Slot adapts his tactics to ensure at least one of the fullbacks remains deep to protect the space Iraola’s side will look to attack into.
Shots, shots, shots
Bournemouth, little old Bournemouth, are currently generating the third most shots per 90 in the Premier League.
They are taking on average 16 shots per 90 minutes and 5.57 per 90, which marks them fourth.
When you take this in the context of having a bottom half output in terms of ball possession it’s easy to see why Bournemouth are so dangerous.
What is interesting when you look closely at Bournemouth is they can generate attacking situations and shots from a variety of areas of the pitch and from a variety of players.
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They are not a team heavily reliant on a single player for shot output and the majority of their shots come from open play and not from attacking set pieces.
Indeed, their non-penalty Expected Goals value of 38.5 puts them fourth best in the division, while including penalty’s put them up to an xG value of 44 and the third best in the league.
The one drawback to the Cherries is their below average finishing quality, with Bournemouth scoring three goals fewer than their xG marking them as a below average team of finishers.
It is interesting to note just how many shots per game we see Bournemouth generate that are taken first-time.
This is a result of the amount of times they have the ball in the channels in the final third.
With runners coming from deeper areas and flooding space we see a lot of low crosses and cut backs that result in shooting chances from around the area.
The issue Iraola and Bournemouth may find is they are coming up against the team with the best defensive record in the league in terms of shots conceded per 90 minutes.
Liverpool are conceding just 9.36 shots per 90, and just 3.26 on target per 90.
They are effective in forcing the opposition to take shots from areas that are less likely to result in goals, with an xG conceded value against of just 0.87 per 90.
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It will be interesting to see whether the threat Bournemouth pose in attacking transitions and the way that they generate shooting opportunities forces Liverpool to change what they have been doing.
In most instances a side like Liverpool would be more likely to keep to their tactical structure that has been working so well.
This might not be the case against a Bournemouth side that are looking incredibly dangerous at the moment.
Conclusion
This coming Sunday’s match at home to Liverpool will be incredibly important for Bournemouth.
A win or even a draw would, it feels like, set Bournemouth up for a real run at a top four position come the end of the season.
This could also provide some valuable insight into Slot as a coach.
Will he adapt his style of play or stick with the core beliefs that have got him, and Liverpool, to this point.
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