WASHINGTON —  Even before the first phase is completed, the fragile cease-fire agreement that has paused 15 months of war in Gaza between Israel and Hamas faces increasingly long odds of lasting or even reaching phase two.

The deal — drafted by the Biden administration last year, negotiated for months with Qatar and Egypt, and finally last week pushed over the finish line with help from Trump representatives — stopped Israeli bombardment of the coastal enclave, freed the first three of several dozen Israeli hostages held by Hamas and released 90 of thousands of Palestinians being held by Israel.

Up to 30 more Israeli hostages and several hundred Palestinians are due to be freed in this first phase of the cease-fire, before a second phase is scheduled to start in six weeks. At that point, negotiations for a permanent end to the conflict are supposed to commence.

But there are growing signs the second phase, which would also require the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza, will never happen. Here are some of the reasons.

Trump will be more hands-off than Biden

Trump helped push the cease-fire agreement ahead of his inauguration. He said he wanted the conflict off of his plate.

But on his first day in office, Trump signaled a hands-off approach to the conflict. “It’s not our war, it’s their war,” he told reporters.

Significantly, he said he was “not confident” the cease-fire would last.

Without strong U.S. pressure to keep cease-fire talks going, chances of ever reaching phase two look dim.

Trump is also unabashedly pro-Israel, making it more difficult for the U.S. to mediate. Rather than try to restrain Israel from using violence, in the past Trump has appeared to encourage it. Last year he urged Netanyahu to “do what it takes” to end the conflict.

His administration appointees are also ardent supporters of Israel who have openly questioned Palestinians’ right to sovereignty.

His pick to be ambassador to Israel is former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, an evangelical Christian who has said there is “no such thing” as a Palestinian and opposes creation of a sovereign Palestinian state.

And on Tuesday, Trump’s choice for the U.S. ambassadorship at the United Nations, Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.), testified at her Senate confirmation that she agreed with Israeli officials who contend Israel has a “biblical right” to the land including all of the occupied West Bank, Jerusalem and the Gaza Strip, much of which is claimed by the Palestinians.

Where Trump’s interest in the Middle East remains strong, however, is in Saudi Arabia. He badly wants to broker an accord that would open diplomatic ties — and lucrative business deals — between Saudi Arabia and Israel. But Saudi Arabia is now demanding any deal be conditioned on a “credible path” for Palestinians to establish an independent state, something Trump has long shunned.

Israel under pressure at home to keep attacking Gaza

Netanyahu is under pressure from right-wing members of his coalition government to resume bombardment of the Gaza Strip until Hamas is destroyed. Several have said they received assurances from Netanyahu that after the first phase of the truce ends, Israeli troops and fighter jets will once again launch in and over Gaza.

Once hostages are released in the first phase, Netanyahu may have strong political incentives to resume fighting. The next releases are to come Saturday, when Hamas has indicated that four more female captives will be handed over.

Netanyahu, who now holds the narrowest of majorities in the Knesset, or parliament, needs to stave off defections because the collapse of his government makes him vulnerable to a criminal court case against him on corruption charges, which he has been able to place largely on hold because of the ongoing war.

Meanwhile, Netanyahu this week intensified Israeli attacks on the occupied West Bank. These operations, which have already claimed numerous Palestinian lives, came after Trump revoked Biden administration sanctions on radical Jewish settlers who have rampaged through the West Bank destroying property and killing a number of Palestinian residents.

Not only has Netanyahu refused to countenance an eventual independent Palestinian state, he repeatedly ignored pleas from U.S. and Arab mediators over the last year to plan for a postwar Gaza Strip system of governance.

In the last few days, Netanyahu has also been at pains to publicly minimize any role in Gaza’s governance for the Palestinian Authority, which has limited ruling powers in the occupied West Bank.

Pressure on Netanyahu also comes from more moderate Israelis who generally support a cease-fire.

Some say they find agreed-to Palestinian prisoner releases an extremely heavy price to pay. The 90 Palestinian detainees and prisoners who were freed Sunday were women and minors, but upcoming releases of some 1,900 more are expected to include adult men who carried out deadly attacks on Israeli civilians.

Hamas still alive but weakened

When the Israeli hostages were released Sunday, they were surrounded by masked, armed Hamas militants, in green headbands and chanting slogans, who marched through streets no longer under Israeli bombardment. That infuriated many Israelis and undermined Netanyahu’s stated objectives of destroying the militant faction.

Hamas has cast the cease-fire as a victory and also shows no sign of seeking a lasting detente with Israel.

“Gaza, with its great people and its resilience, will rise again to rebuild what the occupation has destroyed and continue on the path of steadfastness until the occupation is defeated,” Hamas said in a statement after the cease-fire.

The militant faction, which has controlled Gaza for nearly two decades, may have finally agreed to sign the cease-fire deal aware that its last chance for any respite would have to come under the Biden administration. As it releases hostages, it loses its sole bargaining chips.

If the first phase is completed as planned, it is believed that Hamas will still hold approximately 60 remaining Israeli hostages, both dead and alive.

Hamas can certainly continue to fight, but from a weakened position. It has lost some international friends and financial backers, and some of its weapons pipelines have been cut. Iran, for example, is reeling from Israeli and U.S. attacks while its economy tanks. Under Western pressure, Qatar, long the headquarters of Hamas political leadership, has cut some of its ties.

The Gaza conflict did raise the Palestinian issue — the long struggle for independence after decades of Israeli occupation and repression — on the world stage. Most sympathy, however, was directed at Palestinian civilians and not Hamas.

Hamas, nevertheless, found an excellent recruiting tool in the vast destruction Israel inflicted on the Gaza Strip. Outgoing U.S. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken said Hamas has been able to recruit almost as many fighters as it lost.

Staff writer Nabih Bulos in Beirut contributed to this report.