Lebanese President Joseph Aoun (R) shakes hands with Lebanese Prime Minister-designate Nawaf Salam at the Presidential Palace in Baabda, Lebanon, on Tuesday. Photo by Lebanese Presidency Press Office/EPA-EFE
BEIRUT, Lebanon, Jan. 16 (UPI) — Recent geopolitical shifts in the troubled Middle East, highlighted by the overthrow of Syrian President Bashar Assad and Iran’s dwindling influence, present a rare opportunity for Lebanon to emerge from 50 years of lawlessness and regain control of its own fate.
In just five days, Lebanon’s political scene turned upside down: Army commander Gen. Joseph Aoun was elected president Jan. 9 after 26 months of presidential vacuum. On Monday, Nawaf Salam, president of the International Court of Justice, was named the new prime minister.
The Aoun-Salam combination took everyone by surprise. It was not what the Shiite allies, Iran-backed Hezbollah and the Amal Movement led by House Speaker Nabih Berri wanted or even expected. Faced by the fait accompli, they reacted with dismay and anger, saying there was an attempt to exclude them.
The Shiite duo voted for Aoun reportedly as part of a deal under which incumbent Prime Minister Najib Mikati, whom they support, was to be named again as prime minister.
Their ability to impose their will on the country’s other political components has clearly diminished after the once-powerful Hezbollah emerged weak from 14 months of a destructive war with Israel.
Aoun and Salam, known for their integrity, clean hands and trusted personalities with successful records, revived new hopes for crises-ridden and corruption-plagued Lebanon.
The parliament’s selection of Salam as prime minister, who was opposed by Hezbollah and incoming U.S. President Donald Trump‘s team, “is another political earthquake” that occurred after the “landmark election” of Aoun as president, Firas Maksad, senior fellow and director of strategic outreach at the Washington-based Middle East Institute, wrote in a post on LinkedIn.
To Najat Saliba, who was among 84 legislators in the 128-member parliament who named Salam to the prime minister post, it was “the will of the people calling for reform” that won this time.
Saliba explained that it was “a cumulative effort by so many people” boosted by “a snowball effect” once Salam was suggested as a candidate at the last minute.
“The stars were aligning,’ she told UPI, citing the collapse of the Assad regime, the weakening of Iran and its proxies, and the fresh interest of the international community in Lebanon as factors that led to the huge change in the country.
But what really made “this breakthrough” was the will of the people, who did not want Mikati back in power and supported change and reform, she maintained.
This is what Hezbollah and Amal failed to capture, thinking they can carry on with “business as usual” despite the shift in the Middle East balance of power.
The Shiite duo, however, is left with only two options: either to accept the new reality and join the new cabinet or to stay out at the risk of further losing its political influence, according to observers.
Lebanon under Aoun and Salam is to adopt financial and political reforms, as well as handle the reconstruction of large parts of Beirut’s southern suburbs and eastern and southern Lebanon, which were badly damaged during the Hezbollah-Israel war. Without having a Hezbollah-Amal blessing and consent, that would be hard to achieve.
The new president and prime minister tried to assure both groups, which widely represent the Shiite community, stressing that there was no intention to exclude them from the new process in the country.
But the most pressing issue and main assuring element is to secure Israel’s full withdrawal from southern Lebanon by Jan, 27 in line with the U.S.-brokered cease-fire agreement that ended the Hezbollah-Israel war last November.
“The best and only way to get the Israelis out is for Lebanon to fully implement its part of this accord,” Sami Nader, Middle Eastern affairs analyst and director of the Levant Institute for Strategic Affairs, told UPI.
Lebanon, Nader said, will have to “prove to the world and provide the evidence that its army is the only force present in the south.”
Under the Nov. 27 cease-fire deal, Hezbollah should withdraw to south of the Litani River, and Israel should pull out its troops completely so that the Lebanese Army takes control of the border area.
Hezbollah, moreover, would not be allowed to rebuild its military infrastructure. While it agreed to relinquish its weapons in southern Lebanon, the Iran-backed militant group strongly rejects an Israeli condition to be fully disarmed.
Only a full Israeli withdrawal from south Lebanon would eventually convince Hezbollah to drop arms as part of a new “defense strategy” that President Aoun pledged to implement.
Such a strategy would enable the Lebanese authorities to end Israel’s occupation of parts of south Lebanon and “deter its aggression.” The Lebanese Army would then become the only armed force in the country.
“It is not going to be easy, but the new president is known for his integrity, competence, courage and boldness,” Hisham Jaber, a Lebanese military expert and former army general who knows Aoun personally, told UPI.
Hezbollah, Jaber said, is “obliged to change and accept a comprehensive national strategy whereby its fighters could regroup as paramilitary forces within the Lebanese Army.”
Rebuilding a just state and a modern economy, adopting a policy of “positive neutrality,” fighting widespread corruption, “mafias,” drug smuggling and money-laundering, reactivating the judiciary and introducing necessary reforms were some of the promises Aoun and Salam made.
“There is a chance [to fulfill these promises] because the major impediment for state building was the great influence Iran and its proxy, Hezbollah, had on the ground and on the Lebanese institutions,” Nader said.
He explained that the momentum created by the geopolitical shits in the region “offers an opportunity” for Lebanon to “return to the state, return to the constitution and return to the Arab family and the international community, as well.”
“This road to real sovereign state and good governance cannot be done overnight, with a magic stick,” he cautioned, expecting “some real difficulties in passing radical reforms, forming governance and getting out of the prevailing quota system.”
Lebanon has been facing a deep, compounded crisis since October 2019 that resulted in soaring poverty and unemployment, with the Lebanese pound losing 90% of its value and bank depositors stripped of their savings.
The country’s financial collapse was due to decades of corruption and mismanagement by the ruling elite.
