Hello and happy Thursday, though the fires rage on. There are four days until the inauguration, but already the Trump effect is in effect.

Last week, federal immigration authorities conducted “Operation Return to Sender,” according to El Centro Border Patrol chief Gregory K. Bovino. Border Patrol agents, purportedly looking for those who have committed crimes, detained immigrants in front of a Home Depot and a gas station near Bakersfield, even pulling over vehicles on Highway 99 and asking folks to see their papers.

As my colleague Andrea Castillo reported, “Immigrant advocates say it was the largest enforcement operation in the Central Valley in years,” and somewhere between 80 and 180 folks may have been detained. The exact number is hard to come by. And though it happened while Biden is still in office, it may point to a new boldness from regional immigration authorities who feel empowered to conduct enforcement as they see fit.

Of course, the state Legislature (where Assembly speaker Robert Rivas is the grandson of a farmworker) and Gov. Gavin Newsom have all promised to protect California’s undocumented residents as much as possible. But then came the fires, and political threats about putting conditions on aid to victims.

That has left some anxious that the need to quickly secure that federal money could lead to a softened stance on Trump’s immigration plans.

“I am very clear-eyed about it,” said Angelica Salas, executive director of CHIRLA, the Coalition for Humane Immigrant Rights. “I do worry, because I feel there is no placating the appetite to cause harm.”

She fears there are even “some Democrats who are willing to go along with his cruelty.”

Is that Sophie’s Choice of public policy possible? Here’s what we know.

The Bank of America building burns on Jan. 8 in Altadena.

(Gina Ferazzi/Los Angeles Times)

All one issue

Already, some Republicans in the state (and of course on social media) are tying together the issues of the fires and immigration.

“Democrats insist on spending over $5 BILLION a year on illegal immigrant healthcare while they slash wildfire prevention 80% down to $200 million,” state Sen. Bill Essayli (R-Riverside) wrote on former-Twitter. “This should disgust every Californian especially those impacted by the ongoing wildfire disaster in Los Angeles.”

And, not to be outdone, Trump reposted a message Tuesday on his Truth Social also linking the two issues.

“The actual irony … A home owner consents to pay property taxes that will go to the fire department. The funds are diverted to illegal immigrants because LA is a Sanctuary City,” the post reads. “An illegal immigrant comes and sets your house on fire and the fire department doesn’t have the resources to put it out. The homeowner paid for their own destruction.”

That kind of rhetoric has already led to fear in undocumented communities. While Altadena, which has a large Latino population, was burning, social media started buzzing that Immigration and Customs Enforcement was nearby conducting a raid, Salas said. Her organization was forced to take its attention away from fire victims to check the rumor out. It wasn’t true — she thinks someone may have mistaken a FEMA truck for ICE — but uncertainty permeates undocumented communities right now.

In her neighborhood near Altadena, many of her family and friends have lost homes and jobs due to the fire — the undocumented among them already by law do not qualify for federal aid. Now, she said, they are scared to even ask for donations of clothing or food from private organizations, worried it might expose their status.

“These are the conversations we are having right now in the middle of this,” she said. “Our folks are in deep, deep despair because their homes are gone and their jobs are gone an then to hear in the news that the president of the United States and this administration, what they want to do is cause further harm for the people who are living it, it is just so painful.”

So, for Republicans, there’s little daylight between immigration and wildfire, logic aside, and no shame in exploiting the blazes to further their immigration agenda. And whether they take it further or not, that position is having real-world effect.

Silence is golden

What does that mean for California policy? Even politicians are likely working to figure that out right now on both sides of the aisle.

The questions of the day are just how far will Republicans go on the threat to put conditions on aid to fire victims? And if there are strings attached, how hard can California afford to fight when the money is needed so desperately, and so quickly?

Even if it is a fight the state might eventually win in court, or the court of public opinion, could fire victims be asked to wait for help while it plays out?

We may be seeing those calculations in action already. When it comes to the raid near Bakersfield, state leaders have been awfully quiet publicly, though they are involved, I’m told, behind the scenes.

Spokespeople for Rivas and Newsom said they weren’t available for comment.

But Newsom knows a lot about handling Trump from the first four years, so his silence on the issue may contain a bit of experience. Because if Newsom were to offer even the slightest hint of sympathy to immigrants, the right-wing troll machine would almost certainly jump on it as proof that he’s busy aiding criminals while L.A. burns.

Another sign that Newsom has a strategy peeked through in an MSNBC interview he did about the fires, where he was quick to offer Trump any credit for aid — similar to how he was careful to stroke Trump’s ego in his first term, a tactic which despite its obviousness seems to have beneficial effect.

“It’s not about me, it’s about people that we both represent,” Newsom said. “And I desperately plead with [Republicans]. Come out here. Help us, and we will help you. You’ll be elevated. Mr. President, at the end of the day, you’ll be the one we all will call to and say, Thank you. Thank you, sir. Thank you for living up to the values of this country. Thank you for having the backs of these families and these kids.”

Now it becomes a waiting game, to see how far Trump will take his threats on deportations and on conditioning aid.

Talia Inlender, deputy director at the Center for Immigration Law and Policy at the UCLA School of Law, told me she’s hopeful.

“California has a strong track record of resisting federal pressure to cooperate with immigration enforcement,” she said in an email. “We expect that the state will continue to do so in the aftermath of the devastating fires because it’s the right thing to do, and because any recovery and rebuilding efforts will depend on the many immigrants who live and work in Los Angeles.”

And California does have the Values Act, which was passed in 2017 and ensures that no state or local resources can be used to help with federal immigration actions. That rule seems to have held during the Bakersfield raids, and there’s no reason to expect it won’t in the future.

But it would be less-than-shocking if Trump attempted to use the fires as a bargaining chip, forcing California to balance recovery with protecting its vulnerable undocumented residents.

Simply because he can.

What else you should be reading:

The must-read: Migrant workers lead aid efforts in Los Angeles-area fires
The what happened: Crews make progress against blazes amid ‘particularly dangerous’ red flag warning
The L.A. Times special: Want to fireproof your home? It takes a village
Stay Golden,
Anita Chabria

P.S. : In the continuing war of disinformation spread by the world’s richest man, Elon Musk reposted a false claim that Newsom had confiscated Starlink internet modems. Again, absolutely no truth to this and of course Musk, the owner of Starlink, should be aware if there was. But it didn’t stop him from calling Newsom a “scumbag.” Further proof that the disaster is little more than political fodder for some.

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