1 of 4 | Just weeks after Florida’s 2024-25 orange crop production estimate was slashed by 20%, growers are facing a polar vortex cold snap coming next week that could pose new dangers for the industry. Photo courtesy of Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services

The cold weather is set to come in two waves, including a first bout beginning this week. By Thursday, freeze and frost-related advisories had been put into effect for Florida’s northern peninsula, with temps expected to drop into the low 30s and raising the potential for damage to “local vegetation.”

But forecasters said the bigger threat is the second wave that will arrive next week, which could produce the coldest winter temperatures in Florida in 14 years.

Despite the multiple challenges triggered by Milton, Hurricane Ian two years ago and now a polar vortex, industry officials remain optimistic the cold weather is just latest problem they must face — and overcome.

“We’re hopeful that, with the right conditions, we can mitigate any significant impacts and continue recovery efforts following recent storms,” Florida Citrus Mutual CEO Matt Joyner told UPI.

Latest forecast: Orange crop plunges to 12M boxes

The vortex is arriving only weeks after the prospects for Florida’s 2024-2025 citrus crop were revised significantly downward.

The USDA Agricultural Statistics Board’s latest forecast for this season’s crop, issued on Dec. 10 presented even worse news than the previous forecast issued in October, which in itself was worrisome even before the impact of this fall’s Hurricane Milton was assessed.

Now, with more information about Milton’s effects filtering in, the overall orange production prediction was lowered by 20% and grapefruit production by 14%, showing the crop at its lowest levels since the 1920s at 12 million boxes, down 20% from the October forecast of 15 million.

If that turns out to be correct, it would be fully 33% less than last season’s final production. The latest forecast is a disheartening turnaround from earlier in 2024, when the USDA was expecting production to jump 11% over the 2023-24 season.

Instead, the latest forecast calls for 5 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season and Navel varieties) and 7 million boxes of Valencia oranges.

Grapefruit production, meanwhile, is envisioned at 1.2 million boxes, down 200,000 boxes from the October forecast, representing a 33% reduction from last season’s final production.

Red grapefruit is shown at 1.05 million boxes — down 150,000 boxes from the October forecast. White grapefruit is forecast down 50,000 boxes to 150,000 boxes.

The new forecast shows yet another step along the Florida citrus industry’s long-term production decline, blamed on hurricanes, freezes, citrus greening disease, changing consumption patterns and real estate pressures on agricultural land exerted by the state’s quickly growing population.

In fact, since 2005 orange production in Florida has dropped more than 90%, from 150 million boxes to the mere 12 million boxes now expected for the current season.

The number of Florida citrus growers plummeted between 2002 and 2017, dropping to 2,775 from 7,389, a 62% decline, while the number of juice processing facilities fell to 14 in 2017 from 41 in 2003, a 66% decline, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation.

As of December, there were 248,000 acres of orange groves in Florida, down from 665,000 in 2000, while grapefruit acreage stood at only 14,000 acres, down from 118,000 in 2000.

Arctic outbreaks plagued the industry in the ’80s

Adding to the economic pressures and damage wrought by hurricanes such as Ian and Milton, the spells of cold weather brought to Florida by polar vortices have caused big problems at times. Previous episodes of cold waves decimated citrus crops in the state.

For instance, after a hard freeze in 1983, one of most destructive recent episodes came on Jan. 18 to 22, 1985, in what is still known as the “Freeze of the Century.”

That year saw one of the most intense U.S. arctic outbreaks of the 20th century, with extremely cold temperatures affecting every state east of the Rockies, including Florida, where the mercury fell as low as 6 degrees F in Pensacola. That year, Florida’s secretary of agriculture said the polar vortex hit the citrus industry with $2.5 billion in losses.

The disaster caused many growers to go out of business, according to headlines at the time. Contemporary reports stated the freeze “turned oranges rock-hard in groves as far south as Palm Beach.”

Only four years later, another polar vortex known as the “Christmas Freeze” did more than $1 billion in damage to the state’s citrus industry, wiping out 6% of its orchards and sparking a permanent exodus of the citrus industry in the northeastern part of the state around Tampa Bay.

The three close-together polar vortices in the 1980s served to forever change the character of Florida’s citrus industry from one dominated by a tens of thousands of small, mom-and-pop producers to a much smaller number of corporate players with resources to better adapt to extreme weather conditions.

Much of the land formerly used by small orange growers was gobbled up by housing developers to accommodate the state’s booming residential growth starting in the 1990s.

Polar vortex again taking aim at Florida

While it’s not likely to reach the proportions of the 1985 Freeze of the Century, forecasters say this polar vortex will bring far-below-normal temperatures to the Sunshine State, perhaps the coldest in January since 2011.

As of Thursday, there remained considerable uncertainty about the magnitude of the cold and which areas would be hardest hit, but the most likely period of extreme cold throughout the eastern United States is generally expected from Monday through Jan. 14.

In a warning issued this week, the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center said the “coldest air of the season to date” and below-freezing temps are expected across many parts of the Southeast during the period, including the Gulf Coast and much of the Florida Peninsula.

“Impacts to to highly sensitive citrus crops are possible,” the NWS cautioned.

AccuWeather meteorologist Alex DaSilva told the USA Today Network there is the potential for damage in Florida’s northern citrus groves, perhaps even for those in some southern areas of the state, as temperatures near the “danger mark” for citrus at 28 degrees.

“I’m a little concerned more about the northern citrus groves from Orlando north, where temperatures could be in the upper or even mid 20s,” DaSilva said, noting that south of Lake Okeechobee, temperatures may not sink below freezing.

Citrus industry leaders stay optimistic

The freeze is coming at a particularly vulnerable time for Florida’s citrus industry as it struggles to recover from Hurricane Milton, as well as Hurricanes Ian (2022), Idalia (2023), Debby (2024) and Helene (2024) before it.

Milton on Oct. 9 plowed directly through Florida’s Citrus Belt, including Polk, Highlands, Hardee, Polk, Desoto, and St. Lucie counties, damaging trees, blowing fruit off branches, producing downpours and spawning deadly tornadoes, including a twister in St. Lucie County that killed six people and significantly damaged an iconic family-owned citrus business.

An estimate issued by the Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services last month put the statewide citrus crop losses from Milton at between $23 million and $55 million due to “significant” fruit drop caused by high winds and physical damage to trees.

Fruit drop was especially prevalent on varieties that were ready for harvest, such as early oranges, tangerines, Hamlin oranges and tangelos. Some growers also reported broken branches and structural damage to trees. Some young citrus trees were split, compromising their health and future productivity, the analysts said.

Joyner, of industry group Florida Citrus Mutual, said that despite the challenges posed by hurricanes, citrus greening and now the upcoming polar vortex, Florida’s citrus growers remain “resilient.”

“Florida citrus growers are not strangers to adverse weather conditions, like freezing, which they’ve been battling for more than a hundred years,” he told UPI in an emailed statement.

“While a freeze would undoubtedly compound the challenges growers are experiencing as a result of Hurricane Milton, we’re cautiously optimistic that the temperatures may moderate and reduce potential damage.”

The state’s growers have dealt with many issues over the years, he said, calling them “resilient and well-prepared to protect their crops as best they can. We’re hopeful that, with the right conditions, we can mitigate any significant impacts and continue recovery efforts following recent storms.”