South Asia has emerged as a critical hotspot for global geopolitics, with shifting alliances and rivalries shaping the region’s strategic environment. Recently, three key dynamics dominate the landscape: the growing tensions between China and Pakistan over Gawadar port,the deepening relationship between the United States and India, and the US sanctions on Pakistan over nuclear technologies.These evolving alliances and tensions, driven by mutual interests and competing ambitions, are playing a critical role in shaping the political, economic, and security framework of the region.
Escalating Tension between Pakistan and China
The traditionally strong Pakistan-China relationships is facing significant strain over contentious demands and security concerns. One key issue was that India was accelerating work on ballistic missile, hypersonic missile and on space program. Therefore, pakistan in response gave a full spectrum doctrine that Pakistan for it national security, would not only rely only on nuclear deterrence, but also on tactical, nuclear, non-nuclear, cyber and second strike capability. For second strike capability, aiming to match India’s advancements, pakistan is demanding help of china in exchange of establishing a military base in Gwadar, a critical port in Pakistan.
But, this demand was rejected by China. Because, if China violates the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty or NPT by supplying such advanced nuclear weapons capability or technology to a non-signatory of the NPT, China would open itself up to heavy worldwide sanctions and isolation. As a signatory of the treaty, China is a classified Nuclear-Weapons State or NWS. The treaty explicitly prohibits all NWS countries from transferring any atomic or nuclear weapons, technology, or material to any non-NWS nation. This setback highlights the growing unease between the two countries that results in the suspension of future negotiations between Pakistan and china.
The other issue is the Security concerns that have further complicated China-Pakistan Relations. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), once a flagship initiative, faces uncertainty due to Pakistan’s unstable security environment. If the security environment remains shaky, China may complete ongoing projects but refrain from launching new ones. This was manifest during the visit of Chinese Premier Li Qiang’s to Pakistan in mid-October, for the SCO conference, where he did not implicitly support the 2nd phase of the CPEC or announce any new initiatives. This lack of committedness underscores that security concerns could heavily influence China’s willingness to increase its involvement in Pakistan.
Strengthening US-India Relations
Over the past decade, the relations between india and US, are increasing day by day, particularly in defense cooperation. The United States has decided to strengthen India as a counterbalance to china. In 2023, US Senator Marco Rubio, introduced the US-India Defence Cooperation Act, promising to assist India to counter China’s growing influence and address supposed threats from Pakistan, advocating for technology transfers to India and treating it as a close ally akin to Japan, South Korea, Israel, and NATO members.
The more tightening is being with Pakistan, the more opposite is being done with India. India has bought $20 billion worth of US military hardware over the last decade. This cooperation includes relaxed export restrictions and the transfer of advanced technologies, which have enhanced India’s military capabilities. The strategic partnership between the two countries aims to counter China’s increasing influence in the Indo-Pacific region and address perceived threats from Pakistan.
Sanctions on pakistan on export to ballistic missile technology, slowing down the capacity of 2nd strike and development of nuclear program.
US Sanctions on Pakistan:
Since 1965, Pakistan has faced various sanctions, often imposed by the United States, for different reasons. Key instances include:
- 1965 & 1971: Due to wars with India and the Bangladesh crisis military aid stopped .
- 1977: Sanctions over Pakistan’s purchase of a nuclear reprocessing plant.
- 1998: Sanctions following Pakistan’s nuclear tests.
- 1999: Sanctions due to a military coup.
- 2023 & 2024: Continued sanctions from different angles for unspecified reasons.
Some sanctions have been lifted over time, but others persist.
As soon as any country develops or deploy any missile having a range of more than 5000km, Washington’s alarms bell because after that range, intercontinental missiles starts, those missiles that can attack from one continent to another. A senior White House official accused the country of developing sophisticated long-range ballistic missile capabilities that could finally allow it to strike targets outside of South Asia, including in the United States.
Now the sanctions have been imposed on Pakistan’s National Development Complex (NDC) and on three Karachi-based companies, Akhtar and Sons Private Limited, Affiliates International, and Rockside Enterprise, involved in missile development. These recurring US sanctions, particularly targeting Pakistan’s ballistic missile and nuclear programs. These measures aim to curb Pakistan’s growing missile capabilities.
The other reason for these sanctions is also a response to Pakistan-China cooperation in missile and aviation sectors, which Washington views as a potential challenge to India’s and Israel’s strategic advantages.
This sanctions keep going on till pakistan changes its security doctrine or becomes an ally of America to counter China.
How much Loss ould it Cause to Pakistan?
The US’s preferential treatment of India, including the transfer of advanced weapons could weaken Pakistan’s defence capabilities and restrict its ability to respond to Indian aggression in the region.
However, When any country acquires this technology, then it becomes difficult to stop it from progressing. As despite having sanctions, pakistan has been come so far in its missile program in 30 years that it is in the top 10 countries of the world. It won’t cause any major loss, because it has been done before so many times. These sanction would not make any difference.
Meanwhile, China’s cautious approach to Pakistan signals potential challenges for Islamabad in maintaining its strategic alliances.
Implications for the Region
The world of future is the world of chinese and American cold war.
The future of South Asia’s geopolitics appears to be shaped by an intensifying Cold War between the United States and China. As these superpowers compete for influence, their policies toward regional players like India and Pakistan will continue to have far-reaching implications for peace, stability, and development in South Asia.