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(Bloomberg) — From record solar installations to rising electric vehicle sales, the world is in many ways ramping up the fight against global warming. 

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Yet there are coal-black swans waiting to disrupt the green transition this year. From the US to Japan, power demand is expected to significantly increase as data centers demand more electricity for artificial intelligence. This is forcing some utilities to rethink the phase-out dates of their fossil-fuel power stations. (It’s also causing nuclear energy to have a revival too.) 

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All of this is happening as President-elect Donald Trump prepares to take office. Trump has already promised to end what he calls Washington’s “green new scam.” On day one he’s pledged to scrap offshore wind projects, which would be another blow to an industry plagued by bottlenecks. He’s also vowed to abandon the Paris Agreement, which calls for nations to limit global warming to ideally 1.5C before the end of the century. 

Even before Trump enters the White House, the planet is showing worrying vital signs with scientists virtually certain 2024 was the warmest year on record and the first in which global temperature rise exceeded 1.5C. 

What more can we expect in 2025? Our reporters and editors, along with BloombergNEF analysts, have selected 15 trends that will shape the future of the planet this year.

Solar Installation Rate Slows in 2025

The solar market grew by 35% in 2024, but BloombergNEF expects global installations to only increase by 11% this year. As solar makes up a bigger proportion of countries’ electricity mix, networks will struggle to integrate surplus daytime power into their grids. Still, solar will remain the largest source of new generation added to grids around the world in 2025.

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– Jenny Chase and Lara Hayim, solar analysts at BloombergNEF

Coal Gets Another Life Extension

Last month the International Energy Agency scrapped its forecast for peak coal consumption, saying use of the world’s dirtiest fuel will continue to break records until at least 2027. While coal demand has plummeted in many Western countries, an increasing appetite for the fuel source in India and China is more than enough to offset that. Meanwhile US utilities are being faced with a surprise rise in power demand for factories and homes, electric vehicles and heating, and especially data centers and artificial intelligence. For some, the green transition may be put on hold as they turn to the reliability of gas and coal power plants. 

– Will Mathis and Will Wade, covering power and renewables at Bloomberg News

ESG Investing Isn’t Going Away

The ESG label has become so freighted with politics that it may soon disappear. But Bloomberg Intelligence analysts say it doesn’t matter. What matters is the principles behind environmental, social and governance investing will continue to impact companies and markets in a warming world. In the US, right-wing politicians continue to score points with Big Oil by attacking ESG. And there’s evidence European firms are cooling to it because of regulations aimed at quashing greenwashing. Still, more than $3 trillion has been invested globally in the energy transition since 2021 and there’s trillions more to come. There will be money to be made in the transition — no matter what you call it.

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– Tim Quinson, executive editor covering ESG investing at Bloomberg News

Offsets Standards Will Probably Get Looser 

The most prominent arbiter of corporate net-zero targets, the Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi), will make a decision this year on the role carbon credits can play in meeting climate goals. Today SBTi’s rules only allow companies to use offsets for no more than 10% of the emissions from their full range of activities by 2050. Last year the organization had to walk back an announcement that credits could be used to neutralize all of a company’s supply chain emissions after critics argued this would lead to widespread greenwashing. Following a lengthy review process at SBTi, BloombergNEF expects the group will offer more flexibility than it does now, with caveats around quality of offsets. Yet any decision SBTi makes will send shockwaves throughout the carbon credit world and set the pace for future growth.

– Kyle Harrison, global head of environmental markets at BloombergNEF

Oil Markets Reckon With Chinese EV Success

Electric vehicle fever has cooled in some parts of the world. Not so much in China, which BloombergNEF forecasts will represent 65% of all EVs sold globally this year. The shift to electric led the nation’s top oil company to move up its forecast for peak demand by five years to 2025, and analysts expect a steep decline after. That’s bad news for OPEC, as China has accounted for more than half of global consumption growth this century.

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– Dan Murtaugh, reporter covering energy in China at Bloomberg News

Long-Unloved Nuclear Comes Back

Nuclear power is having a revival. In Europe, concern about global warming and the security of energy supplies amid Russia’s war in Ukraine has sparked renewed interest in the energy released by splitting atoms. In the US, giant tech companies have been turning to nuclear as a climate-friendly power source. Expect to hear more news about restarting some of the big nuclear plants that have closed, and more interest in the next generation of reactors that are still under development but are expected to be smaller and easier to install.

– Jonathan Tirone and Will Wade, covering power and renewables at Bloomberg News 

Startups Look for a New Promised Land

President Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act fueled a climate tech boom in the US. With Trump’s return, many entrepreneurs are reconsidering where to build their businesses. The prospect of weakened government support for carbon-cutting technologies has spurred some companies to hold off on US expansion plans, explore opportunities abroad and even begin the search for a new home. If those those startups actually do pack their bags, expect a climate brain drain that could hamper America’s competitiveness in the global race for next-generation innovations. 

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– Coco Liu and Michelle Ma, covering clean technology at Bloomberg News

The Arctic Moves Up the Priority List 

Global warming is accelerating at the top of the planet. Scientists will continue to track the Arctic’s diminishing role as a shield against climate change as feedback loops caused by disappearing sea ice, thawing permafrost and underground wildfires turn parts of this once pristine region into a carbon source. Meanwhile, the Arctic will get busier. From new sea routes, to oil and gas deposits, to tourism, non-Arctic states including China will be keen to unlock more of the region’s economic potential. At the same time, tensions between Russia and the seven NATO countries that make up the rest of the Arctic are boosting its strategic security value. Oh, and Trump wants to buy Greenland.

– Danielle Bochove, senior reporter covering climate and the Arctic at Bloomberg News

Climate Scientists Rethink Some Assumptions

As carbon dioxide levels rise and rise, the weather has become more extreme and unpredictable. Scientists are now grappling with how to provide governments and industry with useful analysis about risks. Flood simulation is just one area that’s facing scrutiny. Meanwhile, extreme weather has prompted some to look more closely at technologies that were once on the fringes of climate science. Geoengineering is becoming a growing area of interest for some Silicon Valley entrepreneurs.

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– Brian K. Sullivan, Lauren Rosenthal and Eric Roston, covering weather and climate at Bloomberg News

Development Banks Lead on COP29 Pledges

One thing that helped countries reach a compromise to raise annual climate finance to $300 billion by 2035 at COP29 was a COP30 roadmap aimed at reaching $1.3 trillion of funding for developing countries each year. This year there will be lots of talk about how exactly that huge leap can be made. Most immediately, actual funding increases will come from multilateral development banks such as the World Bank and European Investment Bank. They’re the only sources with a mandate and the financing available to increase lending by tens of billions of dollars in a 2025.

– Akshat Rathi, senior reporter covering climate and energy at Bloomberg News

Brazil’s UN Climate Talks Look Messy

COP30 will take place in Belém, an impoverished, remote Amazonian city without the infrastructure for a global meeting that regularly draws rock-concert levels of attendance. It won’t be a surprise if events, such as world leader gatherings, are held in alternative locations or on different dates. Accommodation is being hastily built. Ships have been considered for some lodging, an option that requires dredging. The fieriest exchanges will be between nations over their individual climate ambitions. Countries are due to submit new targets by early February, a deadline most will miss. Many proposed emissions cuts are likely to be made conditionally, with some wanting to see finance flows first.

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– John Ainger, Akshat Rathi and Jennifer A. Dlouhy, covering climate and energy at Bloomberg News

The World Gets a Partial Plastics Treaty

There is increasing momentum from the majority of the world to curb the production and consumption of plastic and ban dangerous chemicals used in the material. UN-brokered talks aimed at producing a legally binding treaty late last year were stymied by a small group of oil producing countries including Saudi Arabia and Russia and are scheduled to resume this year. In the meantime, expect a growing group of more than 100 countries frustrated by the consensus-led UN process to launch their own effort to drastically reduce plastic’s use in their own nations.

– Aaron Clark, reporter covering climate and energy at Bloomberg News

Miners Prepare to Exploit the Deep Ocean

For years mining companies have had their eye on the deep ocean, which contain the largest estimated deposits of minerals on the planet. This year the UN-affiliated organization that oversees deep-sea mining aims to finalize regulations that would allow such activities to proceed in international waters. China is already planning to deploy a test seabed mining machine in July to one of its licensed areas in the Pacific. Elsewhere, Japan says it’ll begin mining in its territorial waters. Scientists have repeatedly warned that mining could have catastrophic environmental consequences, as little is known about the unique deep sea ecosystems. 

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– Todd Woody, reporter covering climate at Bloomberg News

The Anti-Consumption Movement Grows

For years social media has been dominated by extreme consumption, marked by clothing hauls that arrive in refrigerator-sized boxes, massive cosmetic restocking and even grocery store hauls. But in recent months there’s been growing pushback. Influencers, especially on TikTok are saying that for 2025 they are turning to underconsumption. In the past month there’s been a 13,233% increase in use of the term on the platform, while Google trends has similarly noticed a spike in the word since July. Those who are pledging to buy less say they’re motivated by a desire to reduce debt or increase savings, get rid of clutter, and to do better by the environment.

– Kendra Pierre-Louis, reporter covering greener living at Bloomberg News

The Era of PFAS-Free Clothing Emerges

Starting Jan. 1, businesses in California and New York are banned from selling new raincoats, shirts and other everyday apparel with intentionally added per- or poly-fluorinated chemicals, or PFAS for short. California’s ban also covers linens and some other textiles. There’s growing evidence linking these so-called forever chemicals to cancer and other health problems. In response to the two US state bans, some companies including outdoor gear and apparel maker Patagonia, Inc. have updated their products globally, meaning consumers everywhere stand to benefit. 

– Zahra Hirji, reporter covering greener living at Bloomberg News

—With assistance from Jenny Chase, Lara Hayim, Olivia Rudgard, Will Mathis, Will Wade, Tim Quinson, Kyle Harrison, Dan Murtaugh, Jonathan Tirone, Danielle Bochove, Brian K Sullivan, Lauren Rosenthal, Eric Roston, Coco Liu, Michelle Ma, Kendra Pierre-Louis, Zahra Hirji, Akshat Rathi, John Ainger, Jennifer A Dlouhy, Aaron Clark and Todd Woody.

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