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Cameco Corp. kicked off the new year with a surprise for its investors: Its joint-venture mine in Kazakhstan suspended production without warning.

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“We are disappointed and surprised by this unexpected suspension and we will be seeking further clarification on how this transpired,” Cameco said in a press release on Thursday.

The Saskatoon-based company owns 40 per cent of the mine through Inkai LLP; Kazatomprom JSC, the national atomic company of Kazakhstan, owns the other 60 per cent.

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Cameco attributed the closure to “the delayed submission” of certain documents to Kazakhstan’s ministry of energy. It said Inkai did not receive an extension, so Kazatomprom on Dec. 30 directed the joint venture to plan to shut down the mine in January in order to not violate Kazakhstan legislation.

Cameco said it had not received any reports as of Dec. 26 that mentioned the suspension of production as a possible risk.

A Cameco spokesperson said no one was available from the company to make any additional comments.

Mohamed Sidibé, an analyst who covers Cameco at National Bank Financial, said the impact of the closure would depend on when it restarts, which remains uncertain.

If the situation is resolved in 30 days, Cameco could draw on its own uranium inventory to mitigate the impact, and it would only decrease the company’s estimated EBITDA for 2025 by about one per cent at current spot prices.

“A material reduction of our estimated production at JV Inkai in 2025 could negatively impact the cost of sales with a bigger portion of purchases needed to come from elsewhere,” he said in a note on Thursday, “though (Cameco) does have options through inventory, spot purchases, or other commitments to mitigate this impact.”

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Inkai was expected to contribute four per cent of the global uranium production this year, or about 169 million pounds, according to Sidibé. He wrote that the joint venture accounts for seven per cent of Cameco’s total equity value based on his modelling.

Cameco’s shares had dropped 11.75 per cent last month, but rose two per cent as of midday Thursday.

In November, Russia imposed restrictions on enriched uranium exports to the United States as part of an escalating trade battle.

Jacob White, a product manager at Sprott Asset Management, in a note last month said uranium spot prices fell in November due to an overhang of supply. But White said uranium miners primarily sell on longer-term contracts, which hit 16-year highs in 2024.

He added that the Russia-U.S. trade battle is putting pressure on utilities to look for alternative sources of uranium, including from Kazatomprom, which has been deepening its ties with China.

• Email: gfriedman@postmedia.com

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