North Korea, officially known as “The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea” has historically been the center point of diplomatic and security concerns in the global stage. Nuclear aspirations, isolationist policies, and global power network have complicated the interrelationship of the country with other states. Now, as we look into the future, necessity compels analysis of probable scenarios of diplomacy for North Korea as a function of external and internal shaping forces to be considered, as well as for regional implications concerning security.
The U.S. has kept North Korea busy as the greatest determinant of its diplomatic future. It has been sown between brief periods of tensions and introductory engagement within these recent years. The summits between North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and the former President of the United States, Donald Trump, in 2018 and 2019 marked a notable turning point in terms of the developed diplomatic landscape, although these talks later frozen without moving ahead, denuclearization was not fulfilled. The lack of any successful movement which could easily shift to an aggressive rhetoric between the United States and North Korea is the reason. In fact, the scope of the future US-North Korea relations is likely to be determined by many factors including the political conditions domestically in the USA and the willingness of North Korea to engage in serious, credible dialogue, as well as the influence of regional allies.
In some ways, the Biden administration’s attitude to North Korea, at least for the time being, is more guarded than that of the preceding administration. In terms of defining a clear-cut strategy relating denuclearization and human rights with regional security, the present government maintains the position that all these initiatives should go together with diplomatic process. However, if the U.S. sticks to unilateral sanctions, North Korea will be increasingly forced to resist.
Also, the internal environment in North Korea is a consideration in shaping its diplomatic future. Power control coupled with the demands of the regime has grossly dictated its policies. Economic stagnation is now compounded by international sanctions with the world pandemic causing considerable pressure to the regime, and Kim is promising a rather self-centered styled “Juche” policy; but if things get worse the regime may be forced to choose the recovery of possible favorable conditions through diplomacy and not have a more isolationist stance.
China is indeed a very significant player in determining the North Korean diplomatic future. As a major ally and trading partner of North Korea, this country plays an outstanding role in the influence it has on the prospect deadlines for diplomatic relations. From historical accounts, Beijing-Pyongyang relations could best be described as mixed blessings and disappointments. While China provides economic assistance and political backing, its interest in stability on the Korean Peninsula sometimes goes against the provocations that North Korea shows. From now, it is mainly for China’s role in the extent that North Korea can reach out to the international society.
China’s strategy towards North Korea is likely to influence how and in which way it benefits from its matching policies concerning its own strategy. If a conflict occurs between China and the American allies, China may prefer to play its North Korea card while doing just the reverse. Contrarily, in the event that North Korea pursues actions that destabilize the region, China would prefer dissociating itself from the country for its own security interests. Herein will lie the future of North Korean diplomacy amid this country power game.
South Korea, being next-door neighbor, becomes an important component in the diplomatic story of North Korea. There has been a seesaw manner of engagement-hostility transition between the two Koreas. It is the administration of South Korea under President Moon Jae-in that has encouraged the reconciliation and dialogue policy towards the north while advocating a great importance of the same to the two Koreas. The success of this mechanism thus depends on the readiness of North Korea to engage in meaningful terms of discussion and actions toward denuclearization.
Several determinants will prospectively affect inter-Korean relations, including the internal domestic politics of South Korea and the state of internal stability in North Korea. While South Korea feels a change of leadership toward hard line views, that moves diplomatic initiatives into reverse gears, and tensions escalate. North Korea showing serious commitment to dialogue and cooperation will open the way for better relations that would bring natural economic benefits for the two countries.
In this context, without considering other international organizations and their multilateral diplomacy, it cannot be said that there exists a future for North Korea. The United Nations Security Council in particular has played a major role in sanctioning and passing all sorts of resolutions on North Korea over its nuclear program. Yet, the question has been under debate as to whether anything measurable will come out of those measures, and bringing thus far all member countries to a similar line has always been an elusive target. The future of North Korean diplomacy lies, perhaps, with an international community able to maneuver a holistic approach balancing pressure with incentives for engagement.
Besides standard diplomatical contacts, participation from state- and social-organizations is increasingly significant in shaping perceptions about North Korea and also about reforms. Recurring instances emphasize specific abuses by the regime, thus enable calls for accountability by relevant human rights organizations. As awareness of the issues grows globally, so too does the pressure on North Korea to reform.
The Kim regime has practically always justified hard-line policies at home by spoken or actual threats from abroad. If the internal strife worsens in North Korea due to economic constraints brought on by sanctions or the effects of the wider world events like the COVID-19 pandemic, the ruling regime might be encouraged more to settle for diplomacy as a way of getting foreign aid and international legitimacy.
Following that would be the attitudes of other regional players towards North Korea. South Korea’s fluctuating policy-watching in every government has moved from engagement to a much harsher dealing with their north. The possible implementation of inter-Korean dialogue still exists if there is a consensus on mutual issues of interest like economic cooperation or security. As usual, China remains the most important ally and trade partner for North Korea. The important thing now needs to be the influence of Beijing, as the region has another interest to be balanced along with US and South Korean relations.
In conclusion, North Korea’s future diplomacy is highly unclear and difficult. Internal dynamics, US domestic politics, and regional connections will all play a role in whether North Korea’s foreign relations improve or deteriorate. With the current global developments, monitoring such issues becomes vital for future crises that are projected to be in the spheres of diplomacy and regional security.