The recent downfall of the Assad regime in Syria sent shockwaves throughout the Middle East. When Syrian rebels, led by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), began their offensive on 27 November 2024, few thought that the regime would break easily, as proven by their survival during the hot phase of the Syrian Civil War from 2011 till 2019. But as it turned out, the regime fell on 8 December, just 11 days after the start of the rebel offensive. With the HTS-led coalition now controlling most of the Syrian territory and only a few rivals remaining in the north, it seems that the former has secured a solid foothold to become the new rulers of Syria. This is bolstered by diplomatic overtures by various world powers, including the United States.
Two of the former regime’s main backers–Russia and the Iran-led Axis of Resistance–are set to be the biggest losers. The fate of Russian military bases in Syria now hangs in the balance. Continued operations of these bases may be decided soon, depending on whether or not the Kremlin can secure a deal with Syria’s new leaders. For Iran, the fall of Assad’s regime means that it has lost guaranteed ground access to Lebanon, leaving its ally Hezbollah more prone to Israeli attacks. A recent statement by the fledgling Syrian Foreign Minister, Asaad Hassan al-Shibani, warned Iran not to “spread chaos” in Syria, possibly signaling that the new Syrian government wants to shake off Syria’s status quo as a battlefield in the Iran-Israel geopolitical rivalry. This does not bode well for Iran and its Axis of Resistance coalition.
Syria’s role in the Axis
Providing ground access to Hezbollah was not the only important role of Syria in the informal coalition. Syria under then-President Hafez al-Assad, Bashar al-Assad’s father, was the first Arab country to recognize the fledgling Islamic government in Tehran after the 1979 revolution. During the Iraq-Iran War in the 1980s, Syria supported Iran on account of their mutual hostility to Iraq. Thus, Iran, Hezbollah, and Assad’s Syria can be considered as the original members of the Axis of Resistance. Hezbollah itself became allies with Iran around the same time owing to the latter’s support for the struggle against Israeli forces during the Lebanese Civil War.
Ali Akbar Velayati, a key adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, once remarked that Assad’s Syria was “the golden ring of resistance chain in the region.” When the Syrian Civil War–sparked by uprisings against Assad’s rule–erupted in 2011 and government forces were losing more territory by each day, Tehran followed by Moscow decided to step in to aid the failing regime. Beginning in 2013, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) began sending military advisors and mobilizing Shi’ite militias from Lebanon, Iraq, and Afghanistan. Hezbollah’s special role in said efforts must not be overlooked: the militia sent thousands of its fighters and often led various pro-Assad troops in battles. Russia entered the war later in late 2015, providing air support and military advisors for the regime.
By 2019, the Syrian Civil War was largely coming to a stalemate. The Assad regime got the opportunity to stabilize. At the same time, Iran and Hezbollah were finally able to continue their military activities against Israel and the United States–though Israeli airstrikes on Iranian convoys were becoming more regular over time, at least until 7 October 2023 when war broke out between Israel and Hamas.
The ripple effects of October 7th
When Hezbollah intervened in the Israel-Hamas War on 8 October 2023, few thought that such a decision would have long-term impacts on the Axis’ fighting capability. So far, Israel has managed to penetrate Hezbollah’s stronghold in South Lebanon, destroy Hezbollah’s infrastructure, and assassinate top Hezbollah commanders and officials, including the former secretary general of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah. Hezbollah’s deterrence against Israel which has existed for decades was destroyed in less than a year. If Hezbollah, arguably the most capable Axis member after Iran, has failed to protect itself from Israel, there is not much hope for other, less capable members. The continuing devastation of Gaza is a testament to this. Coupled with Iran’s inability to maintain an offensive posture against Israel and Russia’s quagmire in Ukraine, it seemed that each Axis members, including Syria, were mostly left to their own devices. This was indeed the case when HTS launched their offensive against Assad’s forces on 27 November.
In the aftermath of the collapse of the Assad regime, experts began voicing their opinions on why rebel forces were quick to achieve victory in such a short amount of time. Some argued that the Syrian army was unable to fight wars effectively due to it being “coup-proofed” by the former regime. Still others believed that it was because Hezbollah, Iran, and Russia failed to give adequate support.
The regime’s rapid collapse was caused by a combination of factors. The Assad family’s persistent fears of military coups led to extensive “coup-proofing” practices, which ultimately rendered the army ineffective against capable opponents. The military leadership was predominantly filled with men from the Assad family and their fellow Alawites. The military was deliberately structured to prevent coordinated operations, resulting in an army of demoralized soldiers. With effective self-defense no longer possible, Assad could only rely on his Axis and Russian allies. However, these allies were either embroiled in other conflicts or too weak to provide meaningful support: Russia has been bogged down in Ukraine for almost three years with no clear end in sight, Hezbollah is struggling to fend off Israeli strikes, and Iran’s military and economy are overstretched by its efforts to deter Israel and defy Western sanctions.
What does all of this mean for the Axis’ future?
Losing its only sovereign state member, besides Iran, carries several repercussions for the future of the Axis. The first and most immediate one is the further weakening of Hezbollah. Before the regime’s collapse, Syria was the only land route available for Iran to send financial and military aid to Hezbollah. It is unlikely that Syria’s new rulers will give Iran the same privilege. But even if they somehow did, the decimation of Syria’s existing air defense systems by Israel means that Iranian convoys will be easier to target. If no viable alternative is available soon, Hezbollah could be facing an existential crisis. The war with Israel has left thousands of its fighters dead and much of its missile arsenal destroyed.
With Hezbollah’s strength failing, Iran and the rest of the Axis only have the Houthis and Iraqi Shi’ite militias left to stand as a bulwark against Israel and the United States. Although both respectively are capable of striking Israel and American troops, their capability to do so is limited. The Houthis possess various missile types capable of striking Israeli territory as well as ships sailing near Yemen. These missiles have mostly been successful in targeting commercial shipping in the Red Sea so far. Houthi missile attacks against Israel are limited in number and have failed to hit any military target of significance. Iraqi Shi’ite militias–which consist of groups of different sizes–have the least strength and power projection compared to other members of the Axis. Additionally, those militias officially operate under the command of the Iraqi government, meaning that it will be difficult for them to do any operations outside Iraq without their government’s permission. Even so, it is likely that tit-for-tat actions involving the mentioned actors will increase in the future, especially between Israel and the Houthis.
Finally, the loss of a Syrian government ally and thus an increasingly weakened and isolated Hezbollah means that Iran is losing its status as one of the region’s preeminent powers. Not only is its power projection and geopolitical influence reduced, but it risks losing leverage in any future direct negotiations or conflicts with its rivals, be it Israel, the United States, Türkiye, and so on. It remains to be seen how Tehran will make up for these losses. With Donald Trump coming into the White House soon, there have been talks about a new nuclear deal which, if it proceeds, might lift the sanctions that have been strangling Iran’s economy and give the nation much-needed relief from its embattled political and military situation.