President-elect Donald Trump has signalled that, under his administration, the United States would cease any involvement in Syria’s long-running civil war, hinting at a possible end to support for Kurdish-led forces in the region.
In a Saturday morning missive on social media, Trump addressed the surprise opposition offensive that has redrawn the battle lines in the Syrian conflict.
“Syria is a mess, but is not our friend,” Trump wrote, before switching to all uppercase letters for emphasis. “THE UNITED STATES SHOULD HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH IT. THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT. LET IT PLAY OUT. DO NOT GET INVOLVED!”
Trump campaigned for re-election in November’s presidential race by pushing an “America First” platform, one that critics feared could destabilise US alliances abroad.
In Syria, the US maintains no formal diplomatic relations with the government of embattled President Bashar al-Assad. But it does back the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a Kurdish-led coalition based largely in the northeast, as an ally in defeating ISIL (ISIS).
The war in Syria has been raging since 2011, when “Arab Spring” protests erupted against al-Assad and the government responded with a heavy-handed crackdown. The situation sparked a multi-sided conflict, with four main groups holding territory in Syria.
But the boundaries of the conflict shifted dramatically on November 27, when opposition fighters led by the group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) made a push from their northwestern stronghold of Idlib.
After reclaiming Aleppo in a lightning offensive, the opposition forces swept southward, capturing a string of government-held cities including Hama and Deraa and encircling other areas like Homs. By Saturday, they were kilometres from the capital, Damascus.
Trump, a Republican, noted the rapidly changing nature of the conflict in his Saturday post, calling the opposition offensive “unprecedented”. He predicted a “big move toward taking out Assad”.
Still, his post was largely focused on US relations with Russia and his ongoing rivalry with former President Barack Obama, a Democrat.
He made no mention of the Kurdish-led coalition, which holds about a quarter of Syria’s territory in many oil-rich regions.
Nor did Trump address the US troops currently in Syria, estimated to comprise fewer than 1,000 service members scattered across bases in places like Omar Oil Field and al-Shaddadi.
Instead, Trump pointed to Russian military weakness in Syria, where it backs al-Assad’s government.
“Russia, because they are so tied up in Ukraine, and with the loss there of over 600,000 soldiers, seems incapable of stopping this literal march through Syria, a country they have protected for years,” he wrote.
“But now they are, like possibly Assad himself, being forced out, and it may actually be the best thing that can happen to them.”
Trump also used his post to take another jab at Obama, the predecessor to his first term.
During his time in office, from 2009 to 2017, Obama had called for al-Assad to step down and called the use of chemical weapons in the Syrian conflict a “red line” that would result in “enormous consequences”.
But Obama ultimately opted not to launch a full-scale military campaign, resorting instead to targeted air strikes.
“Obama refused to honor his commitment of protecting the RED LINE IN THE SAND,” Trump wrote on Saturday. “There was never much of a benefit in Syria for Russia, other than to make Obama look really stupid.”
Still, US air attacks in the region have continued, even during the latest opposition offensive.
Just a few days ago, on December 3, the US conducted air strikes in Syria against weapons systems described as a “threat to US and coalition forces in Syria”.
But the administration of outgoing President Joe Biden, a Democrat, said the attacks against the weapons systems were no indication that the US was interested in joining the wider conflict.
“To be clear, these self-defense actions successfully eliminated imminent threats to U.S. personnel and were not linked to any broader activities in northwest Syria by other groups,” Pentagon Press Secretary Pat Ryder said in a statement.
Trump is slated to take over from Biden on January 20. But he has signalled he plans to disengage the US from overseas entanglements. He repeatedly told voters on the campaign trail, “I will prevent World War III from happening,” presenting himself as a candidate for peace.
Experts say US leaders may have other incentives to stay away from the Syrian conflict.
Speaking to Al Jazeera last week, Joshua Landis, a Middle East studies professor at the University of Oklahoma, said the US is slated to face pressure from Turkiye, which considers the Kurdish fighters a “terrorist” threat.
“Turkiye is going to want the Americans to leave, and it’s going to want to attack the Kurds,” Landis said.
“It’s likely that President Trump, the new incoming president, will choose Turkiye over the Kurds.”