Russia has pounded Ukraine with long-range weapons and sustained ground assaults in the country’s east during the past week, showing little sign of fatigue in the supply of men or arms, as Ukraine tried to ensure that the US presidential transition would not dent military aid.
While they did not capture new settlements, Russian forces maintained their strongest pressure on the towns of Pokrovsk and Kurakhove in Donetsk, devoting almost half of their activity to those fronts.
On Sunday they also appeared to be closing in on Velyka Novosilka on the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border, in an operation coordinated with their assaults on Pokrovsk and Kurakhove.
“We understand that Velyka Novosilka is a continuation of the events taking place in the Kurakhove-Pokrovsk region. This is a logistics hub that also helps our Kurakhove garrison,” said Serhii Bratchuk, spokesman of the volunteer Ukrainian army group “South” on the ArmyTV stream.
He said if Velyka Novosilka fell, pressure was likely to pass onto Orikhiv, 6km (3.7 miles) from the frontline, and Huliaipole, just 2km (1.2 miles) from the frontline, both towns lying south of Zaporizhzhia.
Russian stamina has not abated since the beginning of the year, when Moscow’s forces began a gradual crescendo of attacks that stole the initiative and put Ukrainian forces on the defensive.
They have paid dearly for it.
On November 28, Ukraine estimated Russian casualties at 2,030 for the day, one of the highest daily tallies of the war, and more than 738,000 for the duration of the war.
Al Jazeera was unable to confirm the toll.
Until this year, Russia has employed what Ukrainians called “meat assaults”, in which a large number of soldiers charged a target until they overwhelmed it, suffering high casualties.
Since the summer, Russian forces have switched to using small vanguards that establish a bridgehead and are later reinforced – but attrition has remained high, as Ukrainian forces target them with pinpoint precision and drop small munitions on them using drones.
Describing a Russian attempt to reach the Oskil River, Oles Malyarevich, deputy commander of the 92nd separate assault brigade, said: “Out of a hundred people, about 10 reach the line, and the rest die. They do not save manpower. Life is worth nothing to them. They throw them forward in order to grab something.”
Mykola Koval, spokesman of the 14th brigade, described similar enemy tactics in Pokrovsk: “If we repel the assault, we destroy 90% of the group. Another group enters after it.”
According to Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence, Russia lost 45,720 soldiers in November, setting a monthly casualty record for the war. The figure is equivalent to three motorised rifle divisions, said Ukraine.
Ukraine also destroyed or disabled 307 Russian tanks during the month, equivalent to 10 battalions’ worth, after destroying or disabling similar numbers in September and October.
Ukraine estimated it had hit 884 artillery pieces – in all, incurring equipment losses worth $3bn – in November alone.
Yet Russia’s defence industrial base has proven resilient enough to replace these losses and provide firepower.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in an interview with Sky News on Sunday: “In just one week, Russia used more than 500 guided aerial bombs, almost 660 attack drones and about 120 missiles of various types against us. No country in the world has faced such attacks every day for such a long time.”
Russia has flown more than 57,000 drones and 13,000 missiles into Ukraine during the war, according to Ukraine’s Radio Engineering Troops, which spot them.
Russia has defied international sanctions that have crimped its earnings from oil exports and restricted the flow of raw materials to increase production of drones and missiles.
The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) published research this week finding that Russia’s biggest defence contractors increased their turnover by 40 percent last year, compared with 2.5 percent increases among their US counterparts and 0.2 percent among their European counterparts.
That, experts told Al Jazeera, was because of the reflexes Russia has shown during this war.
“The 40 percent growth in Russian defence revenues reflects preparations made as early as 2022, when state orders and industrial shifts were accelerated,” said Hanna Olofsson, spokesperson for Security and Defence Companies (SOFF), the Swedish defence industry lobby.
“The rapid scaling of production – including arms for prolonged attritional conflict – was facilitated by state planning, multi-shift factory work, and reduced export dependencies,” Olofsson said.
In contrast, Western companies’ revenues “largely reflect delivery timelines on older contracts”, she said. “The disparity emphasises the immediate operational focus of Russian arms production compared to the logistical and structural constraints in Western countries, showing varying capabilities in crisis adaptation.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin on Sunday signed a three-year budget into law.
It increases 2025 defence spending to $128.6bn, or 6.3 percent of gross domestic product, according to Meduza, an independent Russian news outlet. Military and national security spending will together amount to $162bn – up from $157bn this year – taking up 41 percent of government expenditure.
Russia has also sought additional weapons from North Korea and Iran.
Russian Minister of Defence Andrei Belousov met with his North Korean counterpart No Kwang Chol on Friday, and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un on Saturday to bolster that military relationship.
Ukrainian military intelligence (GUR) spokesman Andriy Chernyak said Russia had used 60 out of 100 KN-23/24 ballistic missiles it had received from North Korea. North Korea had also sent approximately five million artillery rounds, 170 self-propelled artillery pieces and 240 multiple-launch rocket systems, Chernyak told Interfax-Ukraine news agency.
“We discussed what more allies can do to provide critical ammunition and air defences, as Russia steps up its attacks and expands the war with the aid of North Korean troops and weapons,” NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte told journalists on the second day of a NATO foreign ministers’ meeting on Wednesday.
“Allies are working to deliver on the financial pledge of 40 billion euros ($42bn) in security assistance for Ukraine in 2024,” Rutte said.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced a 650-million-euro ($684m) package of military aid as he paid a visit to Zelenskyy in Kyiv on Monday.
Germany has been a leading supplier of air defence systems to Ukraine, providing five IRIS-T systems, three Patriot systems, and more than 50 Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft guns. It is to deliver another IRIS-T system and additional Patriot and Gepard units this month.
Ukraine has sought to shore up military aid pledges from its Western partners to ensure its armies were supplied through the US presidential transition in January.
“It is vital for Ukraine that the level of German support does not decrease in the future. This would be the most important and timely signal to all our other partners,” Zelenskyy said in his evening address.
“During my meeting with the Chancellor, we agreed that Germany will continue to support Ukraine as needed, regardless of what happens in global politics or how sentiments may shift.”
The US Pentagon on Tuesday announced a $725m drawdown on air defence missiles, rocket artillery, man-portable air defence systems and other systems.
“Between now and mid-January, we will deliver hundreds of thousands of additional artillery rounds, thousands of additional rockets, and other critical capabilities,” National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told reporters.
In his interview with Sky News, Zelenskyy said US permission to use long-range weapons in Russia had come late, and the number of available missiles was not enough: “The Russians knew that we could not destroy them. We lost people, territories, initiative at a certain point. Before this decision was made. Is it good? Yes. Is it late? Yes. Are such complexes enough for us? Not enough. And we have the right to attack only military objects.”
The European Union sought to provide political support as it transitioned to a new Commission.
The new president of the European Council, Antonio Kosta, together with the EU’s high representative for foreign affairs and security policy, Kaya Kallas, and the commissioner for enlargement, Marta Kos, arrived in Kyiv for a surprise visit on Sunday.
“In my first visit since taking up office, my message is clear: the European Union wants Ukraine to win this war. We will do whatever it takes for that,” Kallas wrote on X.
