On November 6, 2024, Donald Trump secured victory in Wisconsin, surpassing the required 270 electoral votes, confirming him as the 47th president of the United States—a second term of the presidency after losing to Joseph Biden in the 2020 election. After Grover Cleveland, Trump is the second U.S. president to win a second, non-consecutive term after losing re-election. Trump comes with his ambition, dreams of re-glory, and debatable stances. In his election campaign, he frequently mentioned the Middle East. Trump frequently referenced the Abraham Accords, which were agreements that were negotiated during his first tenure and resulted in the normalization of relations between Israel and numerous Arab nations. Trump also condemned the Biden administration’s attempts to reinstate the Iran nuclear agreement, advocating for a more rigorous strategy. He underscored his administration’s achievements in defeating ISIS and neutralizing prominent terrorist leaders while correlating Middle East policy with U.S. energy autonomy, promoting American energy production to diminish dependence on Middle Eastern oil. His focus on the Middle East, among other issues, brings the central question: what awaits the Middle East after Trump’s inauguration on January 20, 2025?
Trump’s first term marked pivotal events that reshaped traditional U.S.-Middle East relations. In 2017, Trump formally recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and transferred the U.S. Embassy there, deviating from established U.S. policy. A year later, the U.S. withdrew from the JCPOA, reimposing sanctions and applying a “maximum pressure” approach toward Iran. In 2019, he recognized Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, marking a change in U.S. policy. Furthermore, he facilitated deals for Israel to establish normalized ties with the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco in 2020. In another vein, Trump endorsed the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen by providing military assistance, notwithstanding humanitarian apprehensions. He also mandated a drawdown of U.S. personnel in northern Syria, affecting Kurdish allies and regional stability.
Furthermore, he imposed sanctions on Iranian Iraqi politicians and faction leaders. On January 3, 2020, he was promoted to assassinate the Iranian Revolutionary Guard’s leader, Qasim Soleimani, and the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces’ deputy, Abu Mahdi Almuhandis, which led to even more chaos and anti-American growth in Iraq. Trump’s policies in the Middle East have been debatable since that time.
However, even with the heavy hand that Trump used, that period witnessed a slow rise in China’s influence in the region. This influence increased even more during Biden’s time, especially with the new agreements between the old enemies, the KSA and Iran, through the mediation of China. Other events have significantly expanded the gap between the USA and the Middle Eastern states. For example, in 2021, the philosophy ‘more of China, less of America on all fronts’ by Emirati political scientist and public intellectual Dr. Abdulkhaleq Abdulla started to be popular and to reshape new UAE’s foreign policies.
Trump’s inauguration will be on January 20, 2025, serving as the president of the USA until 2029. As mentioned, the Middle East is considered a region of interest for Trump. That is why specialists are currently divided on how Trump’s return will be reflected in the region.
Trump promised to end the war in Gaza; will he keep his promise?
During his election campaign, Trump promised to end the war in Gaza several times in different events. That pushed Muslim Americans and Arab-origin Americans to support him in the election. One of the Muslim leaders in Michigan, Bilal Al-Zuhair, demonstrated that the republican candidate is seeking to bring peace to the Middle East and the world. Many Muslims and Arab Americans have blamed the democratic administration during the Biden period for their support of Israel. Trump took advantage of that and provided his promises. On the other hand, It is evident that Trump and Netanyahu have a very tied relationship, and no one can doubt Trump’s support for Israel during his first term. The question is, will he keep them?
The two-state solution is gone!
The feasibility of the two-state solution has become increasingly questionable. In a May 2024 interview, Trump stated, “There was a time when I thought two states could work. Now I think two states is going to be very, very tough.” Hamas and their allies are demonstrating that the only solution to male peace in the region is to erase Israel. That is a propaganda they should do. They are raising their conditions and preparing for the negotiation when they will accept the two-state solution. With Trump taking this solution from the table, the other side will not accept other terms. Trump may end the war, but not in a way that the Palestinians want. That will raise the conflict even more. Moreover, the South of Lebanon will likely be a target that Israel seeks to invade under Trump’s support. On the other hand, regardless of the good friendship between the Jordanian King Abdullah II bin Al-Hussein and the USA, the Jordanian areas closest to Israel will also be on the list of ambitions, even if on a long-term level.
Trump and Iran: new negotiations or new sanctions
Probably both! Trump is known for his highly recognized ability to negotiate, and Iran’s politicians are also considered good negotiators. Trump’s great battle against China could push him to seek more discussions with Iran as part of the policy of not increasing the number of enemies, providing more focus on China. That will not prevent the American sanctions on Iran. It is more likely that Trump will use these sanctions to exert greater pressure on Iran, forcing them to accept less in the negotiations.
Trump may use a trump card!
In the sense of the Gulf States, Trump’s continued calling to reduce the oil production of the Gulf states might be a problem for these states. As a part of “America First” philosophy, Trump has promised to cut energy prices in half, dramatically increasing American energy. In addition to Saudi Arabia and UAE’s relations with Iran, Trump will likely push these states to decline their exportation and production. Trump needs to bring the Gulf states back under control. Solving the Ukrainian issue, if he will do as he promised, Israel’s expansion and the discussions with Iran might be the key to bringing this control back. Bin Salman’s dreams of a strong, economical Saudi Arabia might be gone!
Does a stable Iraq matter for Trump?
Amid a chaotic Middle East, A stable Iraq matters. For the international community, stability in Iraq could be of interest. Iraq can play a buffer state role amid the conflict. On the other hand, Iraq’s economy is a critical factor for Trump to use as a ‘trump card’ against GCC. Iraq has transferred its position in recent years to be an active meditation player in the region, a role that can bring advantages for Trump. However, Trump is not Biden. He may ask for Iraq to take a side, either the USA or Iran. A problem that Iraq will face hardly.
Waltz, Kurdistan, and Iraq
Recently, the president-elect named Michael Waltz as his national security adviser. Waltz is known for his stances against Iran and for supporting the U.S. interventions in the Middle East. However, his significant relationship with the Kurds is more critical for Iraq. Waltz is a member of the Kurdish-American Caucus, a bipartisan group in the U.S. Congress committed to enhancing U.S.-Kurdish ties and addressing matters significant to Kurdish Americans. That will likely provide leverage to Kurdistan at the federal government’s expense in Baghdad.
In conclusion, Donald Trump’s second term promises to reshape U.S. engagement in the Middle East, blending aggressive diplomacy, energy priorities, and regional alliances. While his policies may bolster Israel and Gulf states, they risk escalating tensions with Iran and Palestinians. As January 2025 approaches, Trump’s leadership heralds potential conflict and complex regional dynamics.