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(Bloomberg) — Czech intelligence chief Michal Koudelka has spent decades uncovering Russian spy networks, sabotage attempts and disinformation campaigns against Europe.
Speaking in an interview from a high-security compound on the outskirts of Prague, he is now warning allies that pushing Kyiv to accept significant concessions in order to end the war in Ukraine would only embolden the Kremlin.
“Russia would spend perhaps the next 10 to 15 years recovering from its huge human and economic losses and preparing for the next target, which is central and eastern Europe,” said Koudelka, a major general who heads the country’s Security Information Service.
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“If Ukraine loses, or is forced to accept a bad peace deal, then Russia will perceive that as victory,” he added.
His assessment is backed up by other European intelligence services. Germany’s top spy, Bruno Kahl, warned last month that President Vladimir Putin will be prepared for a military engagement with NATO by the end of the decade.
Koudelka said that international law requires Russia to withdraw all troops, return occupied or annexed territories and pay reparations. Kyiv has recently come under pressure to consider new ways to lure Putin to negotiating table after 1,000 days resisting the invasion.
A former Soviet satellite, the Czech Republic is a staunch supporter of Ukraine, hosting hundreds of thousands of war refugees and organizing shipments of donated ammunition.
Together with Poland as well as the Baltic and Scandinavian countries, it is trying to persuade other allies to keep arming the war-torn nation despite waning public support and battlefield setbacks.
The 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine should remind Western nations that Russia is “an imperial superpower with imperial desires” and has “absolute disdain” for its military losses and civilian deaths, according to Koudelka.
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Since he became the intelligence chief eight years ago, the Czech Republic has taken drastic steps to reduce Russian intelligence capabilities and influence over local politics and business. It has banned Russian suppliers from a nuclear-energy project, reduced dependence on its natural gas and expelled a vast majority of the Kremlin’s spies with diplomatic cover.
Unlike some other European nations, the government in Prague has taken steps to make it harder for Russians to visit the country, own businesses or properties there and obtain Czech citizenship. It is now trying to persuade the European Union to ban Russian diplomats from traveling between member states without visas, as a way to further curb intelligence activity.
Trump Presidency
Still, Koudelka says his country remains a target for Russian hybrid warfare, including traditional spying, cyber-attacks, disinformation campaigns and subversion. The intelligence community across Europe is also preparing for likely threats after the war ends, such as an influx of Ukrainian veterans and the smuggling of arms that could end up in the wrong hands.
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The 59-year-old lifelong counter-terrorism and counterintelligence officer dismissed concerns in Europe that the incoming administration of President-elect Donald Trump might weaken the security and intelligence cooperation between the US and Europe.
“I worked with our American partners under President Trump before and it was really great,” Koudelka said, pointing to his experience with intelligence sharing under previous administration. “The same is true now under President Biden. And I am 100% convinced that it will be equally great during Trump’s second term.”
Koudelka called on Western nations to avoid exposing themselves to fresh security threats and economic dependencies when they resume business and diplomatic relations with Russia in the future. He added Russia was an “aggressor who only understands strength” and the outcome of the war would determine the likelihood of a future global conflict directly involving NATO.
“If facing a strong country or a strong alliance, Russia will make the calculation that it isn’t worth messing with it,” said Koudelka. “If, by contrast, Russia concludes that the war in Ukraine has paid off, and that European countries are weak and NATO lacks unity, then it may try something new.”
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