The diplomatic situation among the countries located in the Indo-Pacific Ocean and the shifting balances between them affect the global trade map with a direct impact on the availability of products and their prices when they reach our hands. It is something much more tangible and complex than the butterfly effect because what is happening right now at this point on Earth concerns all of us much more than we can understand at first glance, as this area is the cradle of the world’s trade routes.
Starting the analysis, we will talk about the QUAD, which includes America, India, Japan, and Australia. It is a coalition of states that are trying to promote free navigation in the Indo-Pacific Ocean and open trade, respecting the rules of international law and maritime law.The joint activity of the four, although it started with military actions, now has a much broader scope, including efforts to address climate change and ensure health frameworks for developing countries by providing vaccinations to them. Additionally, the countries are also striving to ensure cybersecurity amidst the rapid advancement of technology, as well as taking care of the environment, aiming to cover all these areas to ensure a stable global economy for the states.The importance of their cooperation was particularly evident during the Covid-19 period, especially regarding the supply chain of products.
QUAD started in 2004 by providing humanitarian aid to the tsunami-affected areas. The aim of this particular balance of power in the Indo-Pacific Ocean is to provide a response to China’s growing strength in the world, with India, which is steadily developing, being the most significant counterbalance to China. Other countries in the Indo-Pacific often act as fire extinguishers in the tense chess match that has been played for years between India and China. It is not new that the two countries economically compete with each other in technological development and trade; the issue is how each of them defines what development means and how they are willing to achieve it.
India plays a leading role in the quadrilateral of countries due to its geopolitical position in the Indo-Pacific. A key element of India’s leadership is development with a human-centered approach, which China does not do as it emphasizes only numbers. India’s people-centered approach becomes evident as it is a leading country in vaccine distribution and infrastructure development.
India plays a leading role in the quadrilateral of countries due to its geopolitical position in the Indo-Pacific. A key element of India’s leadership is development with a human-centered approach, which China does not do as it emphasizes only numbers. India’s people-centered approach becomes evident as it is a leading country in vaccine distribution and infrastructure development.
The world watches as the two nations compete to become the dominant superpower and representative of the global south. Although China is clearly stronger today, India is rapidly advancing with its economic dynamism, military buildup, and diplomatic offensive. In fact, India has also launched its own lending program called the Neighborhood First Policy to compete with China’s Belt and Road Initiative. (BRI).[1]
India’s rise comes at a favorable time. The Chinese economy is on a downward trajectory with overwhelming debt, declining foreign direct investment, and capital flight in the trillions of dollars. It is affected by high youth unemployment, a real estate market collapse, reduced household wealth, low consumer demand, and the prospect of deflation. Moreover, China is facing a demographic bomb.
China’s economic miracle is now a thing of the past, as it was destroyed by Xi’s policies that abandoned free trade mechanisms in favor of stricter state control through state-owned enterprises. He insisted on political discipline and frightened foreign investors with strict anti-espionage policies.
On the contrary, investors are currently finding fertile ground in India, a country that is a hub for foreign investments but with much more humane conditions for workers, something that is not the case in China. India’s presence in the region is becoming increasingly significant over time.
In the post-Cold War era, the absence of strategic competition in the Indian Ocean allowed New Delhi not only to play a prominent role but also to secure a favorable and safe Indian Ocean for its strategic interests. The emergence of China as an additional and perhaps alternative security provider forced India to reassess its foreign policy options under the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. However, if Beijing managed to make progress in India’s immediate neighborhood, it was because New Delhi created an environment conducive to such an outcome. India continues to increase its global collaborations and has much friendlier relations with America compared to China, a fact that can be explained by the different historical contexts in which the countries thrived. The history of China is a series of dynasties and ruling families that fought for power, while the history of India is the story of a country with a culture of inclusion Therefore the action of the QUAD is also ton control China’s expansionist policy as a counterbalance and safeguard to countries China is claiming at the moment land of Japan, India, Nepal, Bhutan and Philipines. It is worth considering that at this moment, India is a country characterized by the peaceful coexistence of different religious doctrines and ethnic minorities.
But what is the next day that dawns in the Indo-European ocean? Surrounding India with military facilities, China aims to restrict India’s access to the world while gaining a military advantage. This is China’s way of stifling India’s ambitions .Over the past ten years, China has proceeded to surround India’s southern coast with ports that operate as military facilities. Through the BRI program, China has developed and taken control of the Gwadar port in Pakistan, the Hambantota port in Sri Lanka, the Kyaukpyu port in Myanmar, the Chittagong port in Bangladesh, the Lamu port in Kenya, a naval base in Djibouti, and the Dar Es Salam port in Tanzania. These ports form a “string of pearls” aimed at restricting India’s access to the world. India, on the other hand, is creating alliances to encircle China. Just as China created the “string of pearls,” India has created a “diamond chain” to choke China’s access to the Indian Ocean, the East China Sea, and the South China Sea. It is a tit-for-tat. The difference is that – instead of gaining access to military bases through infrastructure agreements and debt traps, India has achieved this by forming alliances with countries that share similar views.
Regarding diplomatic relations, China’s misconduct in trade and its refusal to comply with the rule of law have given it the reputation of a pariah state. Her multiple and simultaneous territorial seizures, aggressive actions, debt traps, and support for the Russian war in Ukraine have caused her increasing isolation from democracies that respect the rule of law.
India, on the other hand, is evolving from a power to a superpower. It has surpassed China as the most populous country in the world with 1.43 billion consumers, most of whom are increasing in wealth. It has emerged as the fifth-largest global economy and continues to grow at a rate of six to seven percent annually. Today, India ranks fourth in the global military strength and nuclear power index, 11th in diplomatic strength, fourth in innovation and technology, seventh in the number of filed technological patents, and is the eighth largest recipient of foreign direct investment. Specifically, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has launched a diplomatic campaign to reach out to countries with similar views. Since 2014, he has made 84 trips abroad covering 71 countries.
Time will tell if India will surpass China as the second most influential country on the planet and the dominant representative of the global south. The economic and diplomatic winds are certainly blowing in favor of India. However, we would be foolish to underestimate China’s military power. Countries tend to act radically after their peak as they try to hold onto power amid decline, and of course, in the case of China, we must be particularly cautious as we are talking about a country with a strong communist background. In the journey of creating a framework for equitable development of countries in the Indo-Pacific Ocean, India, through its actions in QUAD, is the only country that can act as a counterbalance to China. As Narendra Modi says, the significance of a journey is not measured by the distance traveled, but by the destination achieved.