The most important thing that caught my attention and sparked my analysis as an Egyptian expert in Chinese political affairs was my research into the relationship between the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and the recent Gaza war, the extent of the damage to the navigational waterway of the Egyptian Suez Canal and the increasing Houthi strikes in that region, on the increasing Chinese and Russian activities to create an alternative sea lane passing through the Arctic region to connect the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and for Chinese and Russian goods to pass through it, which is specifically the same analysis documented by the Chinese magazine “Info BRICS”, with its explicit reference to the growing interest in Asia in the Northern Navigation Corridor, which connects the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, in light of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
With the confirmation of the Chinese magazine “Info BRICS”, in its published analysis, that interest has increased in light of the confrontation in the Middle East, which may lead to the obstruction of China’s traditional trade routes leading to Europe, while the travel time from Asia to Europe is reduced by half if it is done through the Northern Corridor. The Chinese magazine analyzed all the problems associated with navigation through the Egyptian Suez Canal, which caused losses in global logistics services. For example, the container ship “Ever Given” closed the Suez Canal passage in 2021, which cost the industry about $ 9 billion per day, and 12% of goods and containers were delayed in delivery operations.
Here, the Chinese magazine “Info BRICS” analyzed that the suspension of shipping through the Middle East region for several months due to the recent Gaza war and those unrest in the Middle East region will have major consequences. In light of this, China, along with Russia and other Asian countries, are interested in developing the Northern Navigation Corridor to ensure the flow of goods without obstacles, as is the case in the Middle East region and the Egyptian Suez Canal and all the waterways and straits there, and the damage to maritime transport operations and the flow of Chinese goods and commodities to Europe, the Middle East and the world, due to those recent unrest in the Middle East region.
On the other hand, I have analyzed the relationship between what was mentioned by the Chinese magazine “Info BRICS” and the increasing Chinese and Russian activities in the Arctic region to develop and create an alternative navigational passage to the Egyptian Suez Canal, especially after the Gaza war and the increasing unrest in the Middle East, and this recent collective agreement between the NATO military alliance countries to establish a satellite network, which was made specifically to monitor the increasing activities of China and Russia, according to their analysis, in the Arctic region and their attempt in China and Russia to create an alternative navigational passage to the Egyptian Suez Canal, harms the security and military interests of the NATO military alliance countries, with the increase in Chinese and Russian ports and activities along the lines and areas of concentration of the Arctic Ocean region. This agreement was signed by several countries of the NATO military alliance to establish a space spy network primarily to monitor the Chinese and Russian presence and influence in the Arctic region, including: (Hungary, Germany, Denmark, Iceland, Italy, Canada, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, the United States of America, Finland, France and Sweden), who indicated that their national and military security was harmed by the Chinese and Russian presence in the Arctic Ocean or the North Pole.
As an expert in Chinese political affairs, I often stopped at an analysis of a post by the Director of the Institute of International Relations at the People’s University of China, Professor “Jin Canrong”, who confirmed that: “If the conflict there expands in Gaza and the Middle East region, it will pose a great danger to the Egyptian Suez Canal and its important shipping lane. Therefore, of course, we hope that the Chinese will soon succeed in creating an alternative sea and shipping route to the Egyptian Suez Canal that passes through the North Sea, to preserve China’s interests and its Belt and Road Initiative”.
Taking into account that the Northern Navigation Corridor that China and Russia are seeking extends across the Arctic Circle and connects the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, and the alternative Arctic Corridor is the shortest waterway between the European part of Russia and the Far East, and is located entirely within Russia’s territorial waters and exclusive economic zone, but NATO countries are primarily fighting Russia in it, which in turn invited China to search, explore, establish ports, and conduct scientific research and explorations around it.
Moscow is planning to use the Northern Navigation Corridor, an alternative to the Egyptian Suez Canal, to export oil and gas, and it is expected to become a major trade route between Europe and Asia. Immediately after the Gaza War, specifically in November 2023, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak stated that ships will soon be able to sail year-round along the Northern Navigation Corridor, especially with the increasing unrest in the Middle East and around the Suez Canal. The aforementioned Northern Navigation Corridor extends across the Arctic Circle and connects the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Russia is working diligently to develop it, as it continues to manufacture an additional number of (icebreakers) to accompany commercial ships, and Russia will become the world’s first in its largest fleet of icebreakers and ice removers, which will accompany every commercial ship that passes through the North Pole to remove ice from its front and improve its progress and course. Moscow plans to use the Northern Corridor to export oil and gas around the world, and it is expected to become a major trade route between Europe and Asia according to Chinese and Russian planning.
Perhaps what caught my attention most in this regard is the Russian-Emirati agreement to establish a joint Russian-Emirati company to develop the Northern Navigation Corridor, which connects the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, in cooperation and coordination between the Russian company “Rosatom” and the Emirati company “DP World” .
Based on these Chinese and Russian moves to control global trade and maritime navigation and their attempts to agree together to obstruct and limit American and Western maritime influence and strike the interests of all NATO countries militarily, logistically and security-wise, by establishing the alternative northern corridor for global maritime traffic, several NATO member states agreed in the Belgian capital, Brussels, on Thursday, November 14, 2024, to establish a satellite communications network, known as the “North Link” in the Arctic region, to confront the increasing activities of China and Russia in particular, and to provide full satellite coverage for the Arctic region with the necessary satellite coverage for communications and navigation, and thus to serve NATO’s military operations.
Here, NATO countries, led and planned by Washington, set a path to militarize the Arctic region and obstruct Russian and Chinese economic activities in the northern latitudes. With the confirmation of the commander of the air forces in the alliance, US General “James Hecker”, that “NATO military alliance plans in the short term to establish a joint air operations center in the Arctic region to confront Russia and China”.
On the other hand, the increasing activities of China and Russia in the Arctic region were also discussed during the (Security Forum in the Canadian city of Halifax), on Saturday, November 23, 2024, with the speech of the Canadian Minister of Defense “William Blair” during his attendance at the security forum, stressing that “China uses two methods of operating in our region around the Arctic, the first is economic pressure and investments in vital infrastructure in the region. The second is what they call scientific research”. The Canadian Prime Minister continued, saying: “We see an increasing growth in the Chinese presence in the Arctic region, and this is not only for scientific research. The Chinese are mapping the seabed and collecting intelligence information”.
With an explicit accusation directed at Beijing by the NATO military alliance and during the attendance of the security forum in the Canadian city of Halifax, of China’s collection of intelligence information in the Arctic Ocean region. The accusations of the NATO military alliance countries against the Russian side also came with China, regarding Russian investments in the Arctic region, and the presence of (17 Russian ports on the Arctic Ocean), while there are no ports for many NATO military alliance countries in the Arctic region. With the decision of Russian President “Vladimir Putin” regarding Russia’s intention to continue expanding its naval fleet in the Arctic, as a vital and dangerous and sensitive border area for the NATO military alliance countries, which is very critical and dangerous for the Chinese and Russians. In June 2024, the Russian Minister of Development of the Far East and the Arctic “Alexei Chekunkov” indicated that Russia and China will always guarantee the security of the Arctic and will confront attempts to militarize this region led by Washington and its allies.
Here came the Russian response to the NATO countries’ military escalation in confronting it in the Arctic region, through the Russian President’s assistant, “Nikolai Patrushev”, in his statement on September 2, 2024, regarding the escalation of the United States of America and its allies of the situation along the perimeter of Russia’s borders, and their continuous probing and testing of its defensive capabilities in the Arctic region.
Russian President “Vladimir Putin” also confirmed Russia’s intention to continue expanding its fleet in the Arctic, and to build (new icebreakers) and push more ships capable of sailing across the Arctic Ocean. President “Putin” said during a speech he gave at the launch ceremony of the construction of the nuclear icebreaker “Leningrad”, that the residents of the Arctic regions are waiting for powerful icebreakers and other ships capable of sailing in the Arctic. The Russian President gave the green light to build the nuclear icebreaker “Leningrad”, as part of a plan aimed at developing the Northern Navigation Corridor. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that Russian oil companies are increasingly using the Northern Navigation Corridor to export raw materials to Asia. Vladimir Panov, the representative of the Russian Rosatom Corporation for Arctic Development, confirmed that the corporation expects to achieve a record number of goods traffic via the Arctic route that Russia is developing for international navigation in 2024.
Based on the previous analysis, which I realized how dangerous and sensitive it is as an expert in Chinese political affairs, regarding the Egyptian Suez Canal and the attempt to create an alternative navigation corridor for it that passes through the Arctic Corridor to connect the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, and the extent of the current conflict between Russia and China on the one hand and NATO military alliance countries on the other hand through NATO’s decision to establish a spy network or satellites to monitor the Chinese and Russian presence and influence in the Arctic region due to its impact on the national, military, logistical and maritime security of NATO countries. Hence, the bet now is on the stability of the Middle East region to continue the work of the Egyptian Suez Canal and stop any other alternative works aimed at creating alternative waterways or sea lanes to the Egyptian Suez Canal, as the most important sea lane in the world for the movement of global goods and containers.