Donald Trump’s return to the White House marks a pivotal moment for Latin America, a region historically shaped by its relationship with the United States. With Trump’s “America First” agenda back in full force, nations across the region are bracing for renewed challenges in trade, security, and migration. The broader implications will ripple throughout Latin America, testing its resilience and autonomy.
Mexico: Migration, Security, and Trade Challenges
Mexico finds itself at the epicentre of Trump’s policies, particularly on migration and trade. Migration has been a persistent point of contention, with Trump’s previous administration implementing harsh measures such as Title 42 and “Remain in Mexico” policies. These policies placed significant strain on Mexico’s border regions, forcing it to act as a buffer zone for US immigration enforcement.
The return of migrant caravans, comprising individuals fleeing violence, poverty, and climatel change, will test Mexico’s capacity to manage humanitarian crises while balancing its diplomatic relationship with the US. Trump’s rhetoric around border security and potential expansions of deportation efforts will further complicate this dynamic, putting pressure on Mexico’s resources and governance.
Economically, the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) remains a cornerstone of Mexico’s trade strategy. However, Trump’s history of prioritising “America First” policies raises concerns about renegotiations or protectionist measures that could disrupt key sectors such as automotive manufacturing. Mexico’s reliance on the US for 80% of its exports underscores the need for diversification, particularly by strengthening ties with Europe, Asia, and regional partners.
Security is another critical area. Mexico’s struggle against organised crime has drawn the attention of US policymakers, with Trump previously suggesting direct military intervention to combat cartels. While unlikely to materialise, such rhetoric highlights the challenges Mexico faces in maintaining sovereignty while addressing transnational security concerns.
Claudia Sheinbaum, Mexico’s first female president, is poised to continue many of the policies of her predecessor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), particularly in terms of social programs, economic strategies, and the country’s stance on sovereignty. Sheinbaum, a former mayor of Mexico City, is expected to build on AMLO’s “Fourth Transformation” agenda, which seeks to address social inequality through increased public spending on welfare and infrastructure. While she is likely to focus on maintaining Mexico’s welfare programmes, her ability to balance these priorities with Mexico’s economic growth in the face of external pressures, such as Trump’s protectionist policies, will be key.
On the foreign policy front, Sheinbaum’s administration will likely maintain a degree of continuity with AMLO’s policies, particularly the shift towards focusing “South” in terms of Mexico’s trade and diplomatic relations. Under AMLO, Mexico made clear its intent to build stronger ties with Latin America, Central America, and the Caribbean, placing less emphasis on the US than previous administrations. AMLO’s contentious remarks regarding the European Union and Spain—criticising Spain’s colonial legacy and the EU’s historical influence—have set the stage for a more strained, foreign policy approach. Under Sheinbaum, this could continue, with the potential for continued diplomatic tensions for Mexico, and also a more isolated foreign policy.
Dealing with Trump’s administration will present a nuanced challenge for Sheinbaum. While she may seek to maintain a cooperative relationship with the US on trade through the USMCA, particularly given Mexico’s economic reliance on the agreement, she will also need to navigate Trump’s tendency towards protectionism and unilateral action. Sheinbaum will likely continue to advocate for greater regional cooperation and reduced reliance on the US, seeking more autonomous paths for Mexico. However, her government may face significant pressure to comply with US demands on immigration and security, especially given the domestic political climate and Trump’s staunch stance on border control. How Sheinbaum handles this delicate balancing act will define her foreign policy legacy and Mexico’s position in the global order.
The Wider Latin American Context
Beyond Mexico, the rest of Latin America is also grappling with the implications of Trump’s policies. Brazil, as the region’s largest economy, sees opportunities in Trump’s focus on bilateral trade agreements but must balance these with the risks of over-reliance on US markets. Expanding partnerships with Europe and Asia, as well as leveraging its strengths in agriculture and renewable energy, will be crucial for Brazil’s long-term resilience.
Colombia’s close alliance with the US centres on security, particularly counter-narcotics cooperation. However, this narrow focus risks overshadowing broader development goals, such as rural investment and social reform. As Colombia navigates its post-conflict recovery, diversifying its partnerships to include Europe and Asia will be essential.
Other countries in the region face unique challenges. Argentina, despite its fragile economic recovery, has potential for greater international engagement, particularly in renewable energy and infrastructure development. Chile’s stable economy is undergoing political transformation as it addresses social inequalities. Meanwhile, Central America faces shared challenges like migration and climate change, which demand coordinated regional solutions
The Push for Regional Autonomy
Trump’s return to power is likely to accelerate efforts across Latin America to reduce dependency on the US. Initiatives like the Pacific Alliance and Mercosur provide platforms for economic integration and collaboration, offering pathways to resilience against external shocks. Joint investment in regional infrastructure, renewable energy, and digital connectivity could enhance economic competitiveness while fostering greater autonomy.
Latin America’s response to Trump’s policies will shape its political and economic trajectory for years to come. By strengthening intra-regional partnerships and diversifying global alliances, the region can turn these challenges into opportunities, positioning itself as a dynamic force in the global economy.
As Donald Trump’s presidency ushers in another chapter of the “America First” doctrine, Latin America stands at a crossroads. Mexico, with its heavy trade reliance on the US and its dual role in managing migration, must find ways to diversify its economy and navigate border tensions. Brazil faces the challenge of balancing short-term economic gains with the need for sustainable, long-term trade partnerships. Meanwhile, Colombia must leverage its strategic relationship with the US to advocate for a broader agenda beyond security. Across the region, there is an urgent need for greater regional collaboration and diversification of global alliances. By embracing innovation, fostering regional cooperation, and building stronger partnerships with Europe and Asia, Latin America has the potential to transform these challenges into opportunities, emerging as a more resilient and interconnected global player.