Verstappen and Red Bull have also struggled in Las Vegas. The Dutchman was 0.485secs off pole position and said it was “a bit of a surprise” to be ahead of the McLarens of Norris and Oscar Piastri, who starts eighth.
“I don’t think we can fight with Ferrari or Mercedes,” Verstappen said. “They have been too quick and Lewis is starting P10, so he will move forward.”
Hamilton has been quick all weekend and was fastest in the second session of qualifying and second behind Russell in the first. But mistakes on his two laps in the final session left him 10th on the grid.
“It didn’t work when it mattered,” Hamilton said. “I tried, it didn’t come off. I should have been on pole, I have pace, which is the positive to come from it.”
The race victory is expected to be fought between Russell and the two Ferraris of Sainz and Leclerc, who starts fourth but has shown the strongest pace on race runs this weekend.
Russell said Mercedes had not expected their pace this weekend after a difficult run of races.
“It’s been a real surprise for all of us,” Russell said. “And it’s something we need to really review because this is an outlier circuit.
“We haven’t done anything out of the ordinary specifically for Vegas, but for whatever reason, the conditions, the layout, is playing in our favour. And I’m kind of scratching my head as to why.”
Russell said the race was difficult to predict because few teams had done much mileage on the medium and hard tyres that will be used, rather than the soft in qualifying.
“You’re going to be learning on the fly,” he said. “It’s going to be probably surviving that first stint and going from there.
“But, you know, here in Vegas, anything can happen. It’s a long race. There was a timely safety car for a number of people last year, and we also saw that last race in Brazil.
“So, you know, right now I’m very happy, very satisfied, but I’m not taking anything for granted going into the race.”
Sainz said: “We are genuinely fighting for the win with Mercedes tomorrow. Whenever they get it together, they are very, very fast and the fastest, like they’ve shown today. So I think we’re definitely going to fight George.”
And Leclerc is also confident.
“The pace is there,” he said. “I am very fast after three laps but in qualifying you cannot afford to do that.
“Carlos has been much better than me in putting the tyres in the window for the first lap. I tried my best to improve but my last run was a nightmare, my fronts were ice cold and I had crazy understeer all round the lap.
“We are strong in race pace and we will do our best to come back. I am not only targeting the podium. I would like a win and if we do everything perfect the pace is there.”