As I write this, the 29th edition of Conference of the Parties, or COP29 is in progress at Baku, Azerbaijan. The focus this time will be to set a fresh global climate finance target to support developing countries in mitigating and adapting to climate change impacts. With delegates from over 200 countries participating, this remains one of the biggest congregations of climate experts.
COP is the supreme decision-making body of the UNFCCC responsible for setting climate targets and assessing current targets relating to climate change. COP21 held in 2015 signed a legally binding treaty to limit global warning to well below 2 degrees centigrade with efforts to limit it to 1.5 degree centigrade. In several meetings after this the aim of COP has remained consistent. However, experts have pointed out that if significant efforts are not taken and current policies continue the global temperature could rise of approximately 2.6–3.1°C by 2100.Wary of this concern, nations have been asked to submit Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) by February 2025.
However, it hasn’t been easy for Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan’s selection as a host was debated due to its fossil fuel production and human rights record. Its initial COP29 organizing committee lacked female representation. There was also delayed agenda setting due toinitial disagreements among delegates in reaching consensus on key issues. This year conference is seeing absences of top leaders from major economies, such as the U.S., Germany, and France. This has drawn further criticism and raised questions about the conference’s effectiveness.
As of 2024, 143 parties have submitted new or updated NDCs. Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are central to the Paris Agreement and their key elements include target, adaptation strategies and implementation measures for nations. Approximately 80% of NDCs include adaptation components that address sectors like agriculture, water resources, and infrastructure. NDCs also require detailed policies and actions to achieve targets, such as transitioning to renewable energy and improving energy efficiency. Notable here is India’s NDC which includes increasing the share of non-fossil fuel-based electricity to 40% by 2030. The Enhanced Transparency Framework under the Paris Agreement mandates biennial reports from 2024 onwards.
For COP29, Azerbaijan has proposed initiatives with a particular focus on renewable energy and climate resilience. Interestingly, their agenda omits direct mention of transitioning away from fossil fuels. It is expected that the talks would include setting a new climate finance target to replace the earlier $100 billion annual commitment. As per the current calculation, developing countries would likely require around $1 trillion annually by 2025 for climate finance needs. Developing nations are also looking to avoid debt financing for climate initiatives.
The European Union is going one step further by negotiating on international carbon markets as per Article 6 of the Paris Climate Agreement. In addition, EU will be also looking for an ambitious NDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions) for delivery as early as 2025. With its climate and energy regulation, its aim to reduce net greenhouse emission by at least 55% by 2030 and reach climate neutrality by 2050 is well on track.
Since COP Agreements are non-binding there are limited enforcement mechanisms in place that would make nations abide by them fully. While there have been many pledges on limiting global warming these pledges are not converting so well into action. Fossil fuel lobbyists and industry representatives are over-represented in these meetings and often influence negotiations.
There is a commitment for developed nations to fund developing nations in their Climate Action efforts. However, developed countries have frequently failed to meet these financial commitments. Often quick solutions get prioritized over long-term sustainability. Hence an overhaul may be needed in the structure and functioning of the COP for better transparency and inclusivity.
The second Donald Trump presidency may see the U.S. withdrawal again from the Paris Agreement. His administration plans to roll back several green initiatives of the present Biden Administration, including Inflation Reduction Act. There are also plans to repeal regulations limiting carbon emissions from power plants and vehicles. Trump plans to increase oil and gas drilling, including in protected areas like the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. While the aim is to boost domestic energy output, this may be a short time economy fix at the cost of long term sustainability. US is a massive economy with huge carbon footprints. Hence these moves may affect international climate finance mechanisms and the overall momentum of global climate action.
The southeast Asian region is highly vulnerable to climate change impacts. In recent years we are seeing extreme weather events and biodiversity loss. Hence measures to mitigate the consequences of climate change are as much needed here as any other part of the world. In order to meet renewable energy goals ASEAN is aiming to increase its share of renewable energy significantly. ASEAN region is home to nations that are mostly developing; hence these countries require substantial financial support to implement climate adaptation and mitigation strategies and aligning with COP29’s focus on climate finance. COP29 serves as an excellent platform for ASEAN nations to advocate for their interests, share best practices, and strengthen regional cooperation on climate action.
At the COP29, ASEAN nations are likely to pitch for climate financing for adaptation including technology transfer from developed economies. The ASEAN economies can only make gradual shift from fossil fuel economies since this would involve protecting workers’ livelihoods during energy transition and reskilling programs for carbon-intensive industry workers. Efforts must be, however, made to ensure that no demographic is left economically vulnerable. For this, targeted support for communities dependent on high-emission industries could be initiated. This will provide social safety nets during economic transformation. The rise of sea levels is already threatening coastal communities in Southeast Asia. There is coral reef degradation, overfishing and overall marine biodiversity loss. Hence there should be immediate and sustained strategic interventions to expand marine protected area, framing of sustainable fishing regulations and development of climate-resilient coastal infrastructure
Malaysia’s National Climate Change Policy 2.0 (NCCP 2.0) outlines strategies for governance, low-carbon development, adaptation, climate financing, and partnerships. The country has set ambitious goals to match international standards. This includes its target to achieve net zero GHG emissions by 2050. The country will be assuming the ASEAN Chairmanship in 2025. Hence its proactive stance at COP29 will provide the right impetus to showcase itself as a leader in regional climate initiatives. There is also an opportunity for the country to call for stronger intergovernmental cooperation on green initiatives. That way Malaysia can drive collective action towards sustainability in the ASEAN region.