The security situation in Pakistan has been a pressing concern for over a decade, significantly impacting the country’s political landscape. It has a link with political and constitutional developments of the last two decades. The 18th Amendment to the Constitution of Pakistan, enacted in 2010, devolved several powers, including law and order, to the provinces. This shift was intended to enhance local governance and accountability. However, the transfer of law and order responsibilities to the provinces has, in many cases, resulted in a vacuum of effective governance. Many provincial administrations lack the necessary resources, intelligence networks, and trained personnel to combat rising security threats.

The security situation has deteriorated in a way that Pakistan witnessed 59 terrorist attacks only in the month of August 2024. In the province of Balochistan, which has been a hotbed of insurgency and violence, the provincial government has struggled to maintain order. The recent rise in attacks from separatist groups and increased violence against security forces has highlighted the inadequacies in the provincial security apparatus. A similar situation has unfolded in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK), where the resurgence of militant activities has made it challenging for provincial authorities to ensure the safety of citizens. Total terrorism-linked incidents jumped sharply from 225 in 2022 to 470 in 2023, the highest since 2013, when there were 504 such incidents.

Although security has largely been a responsibility of the Pakistani military, the spirit of the constitution of Pakistan demands law and order to be under the control of the civilian government. The last decade has seen a troubling trend in Pakistan’s security dynamics. The statistics reveal a complex picture: while some years saw a decrease in attacks, there has been an alarming increase in the lethality and audacity of those that do occur. The Pakistan Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS) reported a sharp rise in targeted killings, with Balochistan accounting for a significant proportion of these incidents. As per the Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies, in 2023, there were at least 170 militant attacks killing 151 civilians and 114 security personnel in Balochistan.

Federal intelligence and security agencies have suffered considerable losses during counter-terrorism operations. Reports indicate that more than 9000 personnel from various law enforcement agencies have been killed in the line of duty since 2001, with a significant portion of these casualties occurring in the provinces of KPK and Balochistan.The escalating violence and inability of provincial governments to maintain law and order have led to growing frustration among federal security agencies. The National Counter Terrorism Authority (NACTA) and other federal bodies have expressed concerns about the lack of coordination and effective intelligence-sharing with provincial authorities.

As attacks have increased, the federal government’s perception of the provinces’ inability to manage security has intensified, creating a rift between provincial and federal authorities. This mounting frustration could push the federal government to consider reclaiming control over law and order. However, such a move could spark a significant constitutional and legal battle between the federation and the provinces. The 18th Amendment, which was hailed as a victory for provincial autonomy, could become a source of contention if the federal government decides to take back its powers.

Law and order, however, is becoming the ‘achilles heel’ of the 18th amendment. The return of law and order responsibilities to the federal government would likely not only escalate tensions between the provinces and the center but also lead to a broader political crisis. Provincial governments, already struggling with their legitimacy due to security failures, may see such actions as encroachments on their rights, prompting widespread protests and political instability. Furthermore, a deterioration in security could lead to a significant decline in public trust in both provincial and federal authorities. Citizens may feel increasingly unsafe, leading to disillusionment with the political process.

As a result, extremist groups may find fertile ground for recruitment, potentially destabilizing the political landscape further.The future of Pakistan’s security and political landscape hinges on how the federal and provincial governments navigate these challenges. If the security situation continues to deteriorate, the potential for federal intervention is greater.  Conversely, if provincial governments can improve their governance and security apparatus, they might regain public trust and stabilize the situation. This would require significant investment in training, resources, and inter-agency collaboration to effectively combat terrorism and maintain law and order.