UNDP says without urgent action, 95 percent of the population will regress into survival mode.

Myanmar‘s war-ravaged Rakhine state could face imminent famine according to a new United Nations report, which estimates that more than two million people could be at risk of starvation.

“Rakhine’s economy has stopped functioning,” said a United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) report released late on Thursday.

It projected “famine conditions by mid-2025” if current levels of food insecurity are left unaddressed in the western state bordering Bangladesh that is home to the stateless Rohingya community.

Some two million people are at risk of starvation, UNDP added.

Rice production in Rakhine has declined due to shortages of seeds and fertilisers, severe weather and the displacement of people who can no longer farm, the agency said.

“Rakhine stands on the precipice of an unprecedented disaster,” the UNDP said in its report.

“Combined with the near-total halt of trade, over two million people are at risk of starvation,” it added.

“Without urgent action, 95 percent of the population will regress into survival mode.”

Aid agencies including the Red Cross have faced severe difficulties in assessing humanitarian needs and delivering aid due to restrictions from Myanmar’s military government.

Reporting from Bangkok, Al Jazeera’s Tony Cheng said that the region is currently only able to produce 20 percent of the food that it needs.

“At the centre of this crisis are the Rohingya … Those who are lucky enough, have been able to escape the borders, into Bangladesh. But millions remain and their situation is going to get even worse,” he said.

The number of internally displaced people in Rakhine has risen by more than 60 percent from October 2023 to August this year, with more than 500,000 now relying entirely on aid, the UNDP said.

Myanmar has been in turmoil since the military overthrew the elected government of Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi in 2021, prompting mass protests that escalated into an armed rebellion on multiple fronts.

Violence has been on the increase since conflict reignited in Rakhine last November following the collapse of a ceasefire between the Arakan Army (AA) and the military. Rebel forces have since made substantial gains.

With more than three million people displaced and much of the country in chaos, humanitarian aid has become critical in Myanmar.