China followed the usual protocol in congratulating the winner of the US presidential election and the new president in the White House, “Trump”. Officially, the Chinese government presented a neutral position on the election, describing it as “an internal matter of the United States of America”. With Chinese analyses in this context, regarding the extent to which the results of the US presidential election will affect the prospects for peace in the Asia-Pacific region and the region surrounding China, such as the Taiwan issue and US alliances in the region against China. With other Chinese fears of a decline in the volume of trade exchange with the United States of America during the term of “Trump”, as data from the (General Administration of Chinese Customs) indicate a decline in the volume of trade exchange between China and the United States of America in early 2024.
At the same time, Chinese official media have tried to portray the voting policy in the US presidential election as a reflection of deep social divisions and political dysfunction in the United States of America, amid a widespread feeling in China that regardless of who wins, the tense bilateral relations between Washington and Beijing are unlikely to improve. In this context, China fears the “conspiracy theory” that Trump has ignited against China economically and politically, such as saying that the Corona virus was deliberately spread in the world by the Chinese, while demanding that China pay the cost of the economic losses of the outbreak of the epidemic, which China rejected. With Trump also adopting another conspiracy theory against China, such as the Chinese stealing jobs from the United States of America and intellectual property rights, especially with regard to the manufacture of electronic chips that are used in many industries.
As an expert on Chinese politics and the policies of the ruling Communist Party of China, I can point out the importance of the meeting of the (Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress of China), the top body of China’s parliament, in the first week of November 2024, a few days after the announcement of the results of the US presidential election. The importance of the meeting of the (Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress of China), lies in: making practical decisions by Friday, November 8, 2024, regarding the amount of the country’s economic stimulus package. However, the victory of “Donald Trump” could have a major impact on the directions and course of the Chinese meeting. As they research and analyze the general economic situation, with the arrival of “Trump”, and in the event that his promise to raise tariffs on products imported from China is implemented, this could have economic consequences and negative results for the Chinese. According to Chinese analyses, if Trump’s planned tariffs on China are implemented at least 60% on all products coming from China, it could halve the country’s growth if implemented and actually implemented, which could lead to a 2.5-point reduction in China’s economic growth rate.
For this reason, China is looking at Trump’s victory with anticipation and concern, given Trump’s previous policies towards China and the imposition of tariffs and additional customs duties on Chinese goods. In his previous term, Trump sparked a trade war, blamed China for the Covid-19 virus, and launched a violent campaign, led by the US Federal Bureau of Investigation, against Chinese economic espionage from his point of view, with his followers following the policy of greatly expanding the imposition of tariffs on Chinese products, if he returns to the White House. Trump proposes imposing tariffs on Chinese imports of more than 60% and ending China’s most favored nation status, which will inevitably hurt China, especially since China sells more than $400 billion worth of goods to the United States annually, in addition to components for products that Americans buy from abroad, worth hundreds of billions more. This is what China fears, with “Trump” already threatening to revive the trade war that began during his first term, when he imposed tariffs on $250 billion worth of Chinese imports. Trump defended this measure as a way to reduce the growing trade deficit with China and boost job opportunities and the competitiveness of the United States. With direct and explicit statements by “Trump”, if re-elected again, he will raise tariffs on Chinese goods by between 60% and 100%.
To confront the expected economic policies of President Trump, Chinese President “Xi Jinping”, in his capacity as Secretary-General of the Standing Central Committee of the ruling Communist Party of China, decided to encourage high-tech industries in China to catch up with the United States of America and break its superiority in this sector, with the ruling Communist Party of China planning to surpass the United States of America economically by 2035.
As for Middle East issues, and China’s analysis of Trump’s position on Middle East issues and the current war in the Gaza Strip, considering Trump as the biggest absolute supporter of Israel in the Middle East. The Chinese view Trump as the most supportive American president for Israel, as Trump, who recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, mediated normalization agreements between Israel and four Arab countries: Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Sudan and Morocco. Trump also presented himself as a “protector of Israel,” praising his previous support for the Israelis during his previous presidency, during his attendance at the Israeli American Council summit, at the invitation of the Jewish lobby in Washington in September 2024, during which Trump hinted that Israel faces “total annihilation” if he does not elect a new president of the United States of America against his competitor “Harris”, without providing evidence to support this claim. Trump also sparked controversy again, by stating that: “Any Jewish person who loves being Jewish and loves Israel is a fool to vote for a Democrat”. These are all things that China fears and takes into account, fearing that the United States will exert maximum pressure on some of those countries that have normalized their relations with Israel in the Gulf and the Middle East, to limit their relations with China. At the same time, China fears that the new US President “Trump” will continue to support Israel in the Gaza war, which will hinder China’s efforts to spread peace in the Middle East and create instability for Iran, China’s ally in the region. Consequently, China fears that trade routes and waterways such as the Straits of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab will be exposed to danger as a result of the tension in relations between Israel and Iran, and the arrival of “Trump” once again to the White House as the biggest supporter of Israel, as Chinese think tanks classify President “Trump” as one of the biggest supporters of the massacre in Gaza, especially with “Trump’s explicit statement”, during his election campaign in Washington, that Israel must finish what it started against Hamas. China also believes that Trump is directly responsible for the attack that killed the most powerful Iranian commander in the Middle East, Qassem Soleimani, when he was President of the United States. Therefore, political and diplomatic circles in China expect that Trump will pursue an aggressive policy against Iran in the new period.
Through the previous analysis, we understand the extent of Chinese fears of the presence of “Trump”, who means a lot of escalation of negative policies for Beijing. He is the man known for his escalatory policies against China during his previous presidency, by imposing a package of high customs duties on its goods, and during his previous presidency, causing the fuse of a trade war between the two countries.