A tumultuous first term in office for Los Angeles County Dist. Atty. George Gascón seems likely to end in a failed reelection bid, as he trails challenger Nathan Hochman by nearly 20 percentage points in early returns.

Gascón swept into office in 2020 on a promise of reform and restorative justice, but Hochman — a former federal prosecutor and defense attorney — has spent months painting the incumbent as responsible for increases in crime and homelessness around L.A.

Gascón’s supporters and criminologists dispute that link, but Hochman’s message resonated with voters, with polls consistently forecasting his victory ahead of election day.

The first round of returns released Tuesday showed Hochman receiving 847,896 votes and 577,340 going to Gascón — nearly 59.5% to 40.5%

“While the final votes haven’t been tallied, all indications are the voices of the residents of LA County have been heard and they’re saying enough is enough of George [Gascón’s] policies and they look forward to a safer future,” Hochman said after the first results were announced.

Challenger Nathan Hochman speaks alongside actor Esmé Bianco at a news conference last month, criticizing incumbent L.A. County D.A. George Gascón’s handling of cases involving gender-based violence.

(Michael Blackshire / Los Angeles Times)

On Sunday, the last of three polls on the race conducted by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies, co-sponsored by The Times, showed the incumbent behind by 25 percentage points, the same margin he faced in the survey on Aug. 18 and only slightly better than his 30-point deficit in the poll on Oct. 8.

Despite the many negative indicators for his campaign in the weeks leading up to election day, Gascón was in good spirits in an interview with the Times at 7:30 pm Tuesday at the California Democratic Party’s election event in a cavernous hotel ballroom in downtown L.A.

“I feel very optimistic,” he said. “It’s a real race. It’s a tough race. I’m not underestimating that. But I believe that we have a better than even chance of winning.”

Hochman, who unsuccessfully ran for attorney general in 2022, emerged from a crowded primary field to challenge Gascón in March. As a former Republican running in a deep-blue county, Hochman weathered repeated attempts to link him to former President Donald Trump. He also garnered financial support from some conservative megadonors.

L.A. County Dist. Atty. George Gascón mingles at the Abbey in West Hollywood at an election eve event held by LGBTQ+ community leaders.

(Jason Armond / Los Angeles Times)

But Hochman, who endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris over the summer, has largely eschewed partisan politics, running as an independent with a “hard middle” approach to criminal justice. His campaign centered on a simple promise to undo Gascón’s most progressive policies and restore normalcy to a district attorney’s office in disarray.

Gascón ousted veteran Dist. Atty. Jackie Lacey in 2020, riding a wave of national anguish over the police killings of George Floyd, Breonna Taylor and others early in the COVID-19 pandemic.

Since then, he has been the target of two failed recall attempts and found himself a pariah among his own prosecutors: More than 20 of them have sued him, alleging they were demoted or otherwise retaliated against for challenging his policies.

Gascón imposed sweeping changes on his first day in office. Prosecutors were barred from seeking the death penalty or trying juveniles as adults; a host of misdemeanors were no longer to be prosecuted; and in an attempt to combat prison crowding, he pushed diversion programs and less-punitive sentences.

A judge ruled that one of Gascón’s signature policies was illegal just three months into his term. His handling of some cases — most notably the prosecution of Hannah Tubbs, a 26-year-old woman tried as a juvenile for a sex assault she committed when she was 17 — sparked national uproar and forced him to walk back some of his all-or-nothing positions.

Gascón, speaking Monday at an LGBTQ+ event in West Hollywood, has been portrayed as too soft on crime and challenged by his own staff for his progressive policies.

(Jason Armond / Los Angeles Times)

Although Gascón delivered on some of his campaign promises — he aggressively prosecuted police officers in fatal uses of excessive force, and improved the office’s efforts to exonerate people who had been wrongfully convicted — he could never shake the perception that he was “soft on crime.”

Violent crime also rose 8% countywide from 2019 to 2023, according to California Department of Justice data. There were much larger increases in violent crime in California counties that are home to more traditional prosecutors, and violent crime has been trending down in the city of Los Angeles this year, but voters seemed to lay the blame for the county’s increase solely at Gascón’s feet.

Born in L.A., Hochman was a varsity tennis player at Beverly Hills High School before attending Brown University and Stanford Law School. He pursued fraud and public corruption cases as a federal prosecutor for several years before going into private practice, where he defended ex-Sheriff Lee Baca on corruption charges.

Hochman supporters trickled into a courtyard on Crescent Drive in Beverly Hills on election night. A number of former Lacey staffers and a handful of L.A. County prosecutors who support the challenger could be seen milling around, while the candidate remained out of view at a private party.

Maria Ramirez, a veteran prosecutor who ran in the primary and later endorsed Hochman, said knocking Gascón out of office would represent a “return to normalcy” for hundreds of deputy district attorneys who have spent years fighting with Gascón over his vision for the office and refusal to involve them in his policy decisions.

“Through these four years, because we have been so distracted with all of the lawsuits and the fighting, really what we want is to be able to go back to what we do — and that is really do our jobs and protect people, prosecute crimes and keep our community safe,” she said.

Others present included Deputy Dist. Attys. Jon Hatami and John McKinney, who both ran in the primary against Hochman and Gascón. Orange County Dist. Atty. Todd Spitzer was also in attendence, along with Michele Hanisee, co-president of the union that represents L.A. County prosecutors.

Stu Pfeiffer, Hochman’s campaign spokesman, said some of the pastries for the event were provided by Ruben’s Bakery & Mexican Food in Compton, which was destroyed in a smash-and-grab robbery in January by a mob of teens after a street takeover. Earlier this year, Hochman and several other county prosecutors held a campaign event in support of the small business.

Gascón and other progressives have portrayed Hochman as too close to law enforcement, questioning his ability to hold cops accountable when he’s taken in millions in campaign support from police unions.

Former Sheriff Alex Villanueva, left, in 2022 with Gascón’s 2024 challenger, Nathan Hochman, who critics say is too close to law enforcement to hold police accountable for excessive force and other misconduct.

(Gary Coronado / Los Angeles Times)

But Hochman vastly outfundraised and outspent Gascón, who had relied on enormous support from wealthy liberal megadonors and national Democrats to win office in 2020. Hochman’s critics say the challenger painted a dystopian portrait of L.A. that doesn’t match actual crime statistics or the reality on the ground.

Hochman’s explanations for how he would lower crime as district attorney have been vague, but Gascón’s opponents still lined up behind him.

In addition to police unions, hundreds of veteran deputy district attorneys publicly took a stance against the incumbent.

On the final day of the campaign, Hochman stood in front of the Hall of Justice in downtown L.A., backed by dozens of prosecutors chanting his slogan: “Gascón must go.”

Before the polls had closed on Tuesday, Gascón noted that large swaths of respondents in the preelection polls had still not decided who they were voting for, and that first-time voters could also play a key role in the contest.

Gascón added that polls also had his campaign down in the final weeks of the 2020 campaign, yet he ended up winning the election.

“Frankly, we were way down by the third week of October of 2020. The results were what they were,” he said. “I believe that we are likely to get a similar result this time.”

Asked what he plans to do if Hochman wins, he said he would continue to reside in L.A.

“I haven’t considered it yet,” Gascón said. “But I will certainly continue to live and be happy.”