The South China Sea (SCS) is located in the Western Pacific region, with most of its area surrounded by Southeast Asian countries. With an area of about 3.5 million square kilometers, the SCS is considered a “half-enclosed” sea as it is surrounded by land on almost all sides. From the west to the south, the LCS is bordered by Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, and western Malaysia, while in the east it is bordered by the Philippines. To the south, it borders Indonesia and eastern Malaysia. Outside of Southeast Asian countries, there are only two countries directly bordering the LCS: the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Taiwan in the north. There are four main islands in the LCS: Paracel, Spratly, Pratas, and Macclesfield. Of the four, the Paracels and Spratlys are the two most frequently disputed islands, with the largest conflict centered on the Spratlys. This is due to claims made by six countries: the PRC, Taiwan, Vietnam, Brunei Darussalam, the Philippines, and Malaysia. (Amer, 2002).
Disputes in the South China Sea began when China claimed around 95% of the sea area and small islands in the region as part of its territory. Tensions escalated when China strengthened its military power through the construction of 1,300 hectares of infrastructure, which aims to strengthen defenses in the region (Cobus, 2019). China’s claim is based on a historical argument in which it rejects the rules of international law set out in the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). Since its adoption in 1982, around 100 countries have ratified UNCLOS, which regulates countries’ maritime boundaries based on their coastlines, including Indonesia’s border with the South China Sea (BBC Indonesia, 2023). Several armed incidents have occurred in the South China Sea, such as the conflict between China and Vietnam at Johnson South Reef in 1988, the Chinese occupation of Mischief Reef in 1995, and the shootout between Chinese and Philippine warships near Campones Island in 1996. These incidents indicate that disputes in the South China Sea can easily turn into open conflict at any time.
The South China Sea is a very strategic water area with natural resources. With an area of around 3.5 million square kilometers, the SCS is one-third of the world’s sea traffic. Living natural resources such as coral reefs and diverse fish species, as well as non-living natural resources such as oil and natural gas, make the South China Sea a highly valuable area. Estimates of oil and natural gas reserves in the region reach 2.5 billion barrels and 190 trillion cubic feet, making it one of the regions with significant hydrocarbon potential. These natural resources are not only important for the economic growth of the countries that claim the region but also have a major impact on energy independence and political influence in the region. Efficient management of these natural resources can support strong and sustainable economic growth and contribute significantly to international trade. However, this wealth of resources is also at the center of geopolitical tensions, with many countries vying to claim rights to the region.
Tensions in the South China Sea (SCS) have become one of the most complicated geopolitical issues in the Asian region. Various countries, such as China, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Brunei, claim the resource-rich waters. This has led to tensions involving not only the countries bordering the region but also global powers such as the United States, which actively supports freedom of navigation in the region. Amidst the escalating rivalry, opinions have emerged as to whether it is better to resolve these tensions through diplomacy or to resort to confrontation.
Diplomacy: The Path to Sustainable Peace
Diplomacy is an approach that focuses on negotiation, dialogue, and non-violent conflict resolution. In the context of the LCS, diplomacy is a more rational choice, given the destructive impact of military confrontation. ASEAN, as a regional organization, has long played an important role in mediating disputes through forums such as the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) and other cooperation. ASEAN promotes the concept of the “ASEAN Way,” which emphasizes consultation, consensus, and a non-interventionist approach. This approach has proven effective in maintaining regional stability, although it does not fully address the root of the conflict in the LCS. However, this diplomacy is not without obstacles. China, as the country with the largest claim, often takes actions that contradict the principles of diplomacy, such as building artificial islands and placing military installations in disputed waters.
Despite diplomatic efforts, such as the Code of Conduct (CoC) being negotiated between ASEAN and China, the outcome is still nil. The challenge is how to strike a balance between maintaining territorial integrity and ensuring regional stability without offending the great power of China. Diplomacy is also supported by international mechanisms, such as the International Court of Arbitration, which ruled in 2016 that China’s claim to most of the South China Sea based on the “Nine-Dash Line” was invalid. However, this decision is not recognized by China, creating a major dilemma for countries seeking to resolve disputes through legal channels.
“Confrontation: The Path to Escalation”
On the other hand, military confrontation is often an option considered in situations where diplomacy fails to achieve satisfactory results. Provocative actions in the LCS, such as military patrols, warship deployments, and the construction of military bases by some parties, have increased the risk of armed conflict. In this context, the United States often gets involved by conducting freedom of navigation operations (FONOPs) to challenge China’s perceived excessive territorial claims. This muddies the waters and increases the likelihood of confrontation. A confrontation in the region would have serious consequences. Not only for the countries directly involved, but also for global stability, given that the LCS is one of the busiest sea trade routes in the world. A military conflict would disrupt the flow of goods, trigger economic instability, and could lead to a wider conflict between global powers such as the US and China. The potential for uncontrolled escalation could lead to a disaster that not only damages the region but also creates a negative impact on world peace.
“Diplomacy as a Primary Option, but Challenges Remain”
Although confrontation seems to be getting closer with increasing military activity in the LCS, diplomacy remains the most realistic path to reach a sustainable settlement. Efforts such as bilateral dialog, multilateral negotiations, and international law approaches should continue to be encouraged. ASEAN, with its ASEAN Way approach, plays an important role in creating a space for dialogue where states can communicate without having to compromise their territorial integrity. However, diplomacy must also be accompanied by strengthening regional security mechanisms. ASEAN needs to stand united in the face of a great power like China while maintaining good relations with the United States to balance power dynamics in the region. However, China must also be more open to dialogue and respect international law to achieve a peaceful resolution.