ATLANTA — In the final stretch of her battle against former President Trump, Vice President Kamala Harris is counting on female voters as her most reliable path to the presidency. It is a group that has voted, so far, in greater numbers than men.
Nationally, women make up 53% of early voters — a turnout rate 9 percentage points higher than men. And the gender voting gap is even more pronounced in some battleground states, such as Pennsylvania, where women lead men by 13 percentage points.
“I think women will decide this election,” said Katherine Tate, a professor of political science at Brown University, arguing that women have long voted in greater numbers than men and were strongly against Trump. “Trump’s aggressive style has put off women.”
But robust early turnout among women does not guarantee a Democratic victory.
Women have registered and voted at higher rates than men in every presidential election since 1980, with the gender turnout gap growing slightly larger each time, according to Rutgers University’s Center for American Women and Politics.
Whereas Black women are the Democratic Party’s most loyal voting bloc, with more than 90% typically voting for Democratic candidates, white women are more evenly split between the two parties.
More than half of white female registered voters identify as Republicans or lean Republican, according to the Pew Research Center. And over the years, significant numbers have not been turned off by Trump’s rhetoric and behavior.
When Trump first ran for president in 2016, 47% of white women voted for him and just 45% backed Hillary Clinton. Four years later, white women’s support for Trump surged, with 53% favoring him over Joe Biden.
Still, 2024 is the first presidential election since the Supreme Court overturned its landmark 1973 Roe vs. Wade decision, which recognized a woman’s constitutional right to abortion.
Many Democrats hope that their defense of reproductive rights — along with Trump’s recent promise to protect women “whether the women like it or not” — will help Harris win over some independent and Republican women who previously voted for Trump.
Already, women’s high turnout in early voting has panicked some conservatives.
“If men stay at home, Kamala is president. It’s that simple,” Charlie Kirk, the right-wing activist and founder of Turning Point USA warned last week on the social platform X.
Some political analysts caution that it is premature to look at women’s strong polling turnout and assume a Democratic victory.
“I’m really very wary of reading too much into early voting,” said Sarah Niebler, an associate professor of political science at Dickinson College in Carlisle, Pa.
Niebler expects women overall to vote in higher percentages for Harris and men to vote in higher percentages for Trump, but she said the gender gap in turnout would probably narrow. That leaves an opening for Trump.
“If Trump can peel off 1% or 2% of women voters, that might be enough,” Niebler said. “It doesn’t mean that he has to get 50%.”
Polling shows a distinct gender gap between the GOP and Democrats in the battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
About 56% of likely women voters in those states support Harris compared with 39% of men, according to recent polling from New York Times/Siena College. About 27% of women identified abortion as the top issue in determining their vote, while 20% listed the economy and 13% immigration.
“It’s the battle of the sexes, and it’s no game,” Quinnipiac University polling analyst Tim Malloy quipped after his polling of likely voters found women supported Harris by about 20 percentage points more than men in Michigan and Wisconsin. “On November 5th, it will all come down to who shows up.”
When Chelsea Hall cast her ballot last week, she thought of her ancestors, who were enslaved and brought to the Deep South from Africa, and what they would think of America electing its first Black woman president.
“I’m excited to vote for a woman, a woman of color — that resonates more with me, my community and my child,” the 36-year-old salon owner said as she exited an Atlanta polling station after voting for Harris.
“I’m voting for my grandparents,” Hall said, “for my ancestors who could not vote, who have been killed, who had to pay all the things to have freedom in a country that we literally built.”
Harris has steered clear of highlighting her gender or racial background — she’s half Black, half South Asian — calculating that too much focus on her identity could backfire in an age when conservatives complain about DEI hires. She rarely mentions that, if she wins, she would make history as the nation’s first female president.
Still, Harris has gone to great lengths to speak to women. She has delivered keynote speeches at a string of Black sorority gatherings, sat down with Oprah Winfrey, even appeared on “Call Her Daddy,” a women’s podcast focused on sex and relationships.
She also made a point of traveling recently to Texas, a red state she called “ground zero” in the fight for reproductive rights, to warn women across the country that many Republicans want to push through a national abortion ban.
Harris also has forged alliances with high-profile Republicans, such as former Rep. Liz Cheney of Wyoming, in a bid to create a “permission structure” that coaxes moderate Republican and independent women to vote for her.
A recent ad, made by the pro-Harris group Vote Common Good, reminds women who may have loved ones backing Trump that they don’t need to tell their husbands or boyfriends.
“Remember, what happens in the booth, stays in the booth,” actor Julia Roberts says in the video that appears to show a woman voting for Harris.
The idea of women keeping their votes hidden from their husbands has outraged some conservatives. Commentator Jesse Watters said the idea “violates the sanctity of our marriage.” Kirk said it embodied “the downfall of the American family.” Trump said he was disappointed in Roberts.
“She’s going to look back at that and cringe that, did I really say that?” the former president told “Fox & Friends.” “Even if you have a horrible … relationship, you’re going to tell your husband.”
In the final days of his campaign, Trump has repeatedly talked of protecting women, rhetoric that he acknowledges his campaign advisors say is unhelpful. Harris has been quick to call him out, dubbing his remarks “very offensive.”
“He simply does not respect the freedom of women or the intelligence of women to know what’s in their own best interest and make decisions accordingly,” Harris said in Arizona.
Republican women have also claimed offense — at remarks by Democrats.
When Marc Cuban, a wealthy businessman who supports Harris, last week said Trump is never seen around “strong, intelligent women” because they intimidate him, some Republican women struck back.
“He called every woman that would dare to think for themselves … weak and dumb,” South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem said at a “Team Trump Women’s Tour” in Atlanta.
“The part I find to be so unbelievable and so laughable is that this is from a party in a group that can’t even tell you what a woman is,” Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders said. “They’re calling us garbage.”
Even as Harris tries to reach out to wavering or undecided Republican women, she is focused on her base.
On Sunday she called into a Zoom session with a group called Win With Black Women and thanked everyone for “the prayers, the friendship, the sisterhood.”
“This coalition has been in my corner for the last four years, and just four months ago, immediately jumped into action,” Harris said as listeners posted a stream of hearts, hand claps, and confetti emojis. “I’m so thankful because you were the catalyst.”
In an interview, Jotaka Eaddy, the founder of the group, said that Black women have always played a strong role voting for Democrats. But in this election cycle, particularly, she felt their work had inspired others and brought unity.
“A vast majority of women overall understand that we have so much at stake right now,” Eaddy said.