What is the price of sticking with Miller Moss as USC’s starter?

Hello, everyone! Welcome to another week of The Times of Troy newsletter. I’m Ryan Kartje, your USC beat writer at the L.A. Times, still warming up after a rainy, freezing night game in the open-air Washington press box. I promised myself, years ago, that I would always bring a heavy coat to Husky Stadium, so naturally, I left mine at home this trip and had to buy one at Target. Clearly, like USC, I’ve been on the road long enough.

Eight years ago, with its season sliding in the wrong direction, USC opted to make a midseason change at quarterback. The move came just three weeks into the campaign. But the Trojan offense, as coach Clay Helton saw it, wasn’t working. So he benched Max Browne, the former top recruit who had waited years for the opportunity, in favor of Sam Darnold, the younger, more mobile option.

It was a bold move at the time, one that could have backfired. USC had only lost to two ranked teams at that point in the season. But the switch turned out to be just the spark USC needed, as Darnold led the Trojans to nine straight victories, including an unforgettable win in the Rose Bowl. The move, in many ways, altered the trajectory of the program. Even if that trajectory didn’t last.

Which brings us to Lincoln Riley, and a decision he may have to face sooner than later.

It’s too late now to expect that making a move at quarterback would somehow turn USC’s season around. But with two wins in its next three weeks, bowl eligibility is still within reach. Perhaps more important, there’s also next season to think about.

Through eight games this season, USC’s offense just isn’t working the way it should. It doesn’t take an offensive mastermind to see that. Not all of that falls on the quarterback’s shoulders — Riley would probably agree he bears most of the responsibility — but in all five of USC’s losses this season, Miller Moss has thrown a costly interception that altered the complexion of the game. That can’t be ignored.

When Moss took over for Caleb Williams, the belief was USC’s offense would look different without a Heisman winner at the helm because, well … it had to. Moss was never going to elevate an offense in the way Williams or previous Riley-coach quarterbacks Jalen Hurts and Baker Mayfield did. But the expectation was Moss, under the right conditions, could serve as an ideal caretaker of Riley’s offense, processing quickly, making smart decisions and delivering accurate throws on time.

Sometimes, Moss has looked like that quarterback. His stunning 37-yard touchdown pass to Makai Lemon on Saturday was a perfect example of what he’s capable of. Other times, often in the same game, he hasn’t: Two drives later, he threw his third interception of the game straight to linebacker Carson Bruener, giving the Huskies the chance they needed to take the lead for good.

The juxtaposition of those two throws was a fitting representation of the past seven weeks with Moss at the helm. But the loss was also fitting in the sense that Moss was once again asked to do too much. In the past seven games, including Saturday, Moss has thrown 50 passes three times, something that Williams never did across three seasons.

So as Riley takes a hard look at the future in the coming weeks, the pertinent question is whether he still believes Moss can deliver in the way he needs a quarterback to deliver. Or if he’s willing to make changes to ensure he succeeds.

After Moss’ worst game as a starter Saturday, Riley was asked if there was any temptation to give Jayden Maiava, the dual threat UNLV transfer behind Moss, any reps to see what he has.

“I wouldn’t say that right now, no,” he said.

But if Riley has no intention of trying Maiava at any point this season, even with Moss struggling and USC spiraling, why would Maiava stick around in 2025? Why would he risk losing a competition to Moss, whom Riley has already stood behind, when he could just as easily go somewhere with a clearer path to playing time?

That’s just the reality these days. If Riley doesn’t give Maiava some kind of shot over the next three games, do not be surprised if he’s back in the transfer portal when it opens next month. Couple that with a possible decommitment from five-star quarterback Julian Lewis, and suddenly USC’s quarterback situation in 2025 could look pretty bleak.

Moss can still return to USC next season. But I don’t see many scenarios where both he and Maiava are in the same quarterback room next season. And if Riley wants to make that decision for himself, he’d be best served making it sooner, rather than later. Before the choice is made for him.

— Lincoln Riley’s refusal to run the ball continues to confound. With Woody Marks and Quinten Joyner, USC has objectively one of the more dynamic backfields in the Big Ten. But in a driving rain, with his quarterback struggling against the No. 1 pass defense in the nation, here’s how the run-pass breakdown went through three quarters Saturday.

First quarter: 2 runs to 9 passes

Second quarter: 7 runs to 21 passes

Third quarter: 8 runs to 8 passes

Fourth quarter: 12 runs to 13 passes

Riley clearly made an adjustment to run more in the second half. But why did it have to come to that? Everything about the game’s circumstances suggested that should’ve been the approach from the start. When asked if he regretted not establishing the run earlier, Riley said USC “did try,” but “we didn’t run it great.” They weren’t exactly passing it great, either, at that point, but Riley still passed it 30 times in the first half. At a certain point, that lack of balance becomes indefensible. Sure feels like we’ve passed that point.

— After six weeks of struggles, Zachariah Branch finally broke through. The speedy sophomore hadn’t eclipsed 44 yards receiving since USC’s late September trip to Michigan, but on Saturday, Branch was open early and often, catching six passes for 102 yards as he put together his first 100-yard game this year. That was the sort of contribution USC had expected out of Branch, who was supposed to take a step forward this season as a more complete receiver. Whether that was the case Saturday — or USC simply schemed for him to be more effective — is unclear, but the Trojans’ offense could certainly use more of it.

— Mason Murphy committed four false starts against Washington, which is the most penalties committed by a USC offensive lineman in a single game in the Riley era — and tied for the second-most of any lineman in college football this season. That’s not a stat you want to be associated with. But on the whole, I thought the Trojans’ offensive line had one of its best games of the season against Washington. USC allowed just seven pressures and didn’t give up a single sack, while Moss took more than three seconds on average to throw — by far the most time he’s spent in the pocket this season.

Big Ten best bet, Week 11

Indiana (-11.5) vs. Michigan

I see no reason, after yet another Hoosiers victory in this space, to continue backing Indiana, who went down 10-0 to Michigan State and proceeded to smash the Spartans — 47-10 — from there. Our Times of Troy picks are now 5-1, so we’re feeling a little feisty. Michigan is a better opponent — with a much better defense — and this is a notably bigger spread. But in a week of tough lines in the Big Ten, why not go back to the well once more?

In case you missed it

USC goes cold at the goal line, falling to Washington in another road loss

USC’s and UCLA’s basketball teams have a chance to stun and disappoint this year

USC freshman edge-rushing duo Kameryn Fountain and Sam Greene bolster the Trojans

Former five-star receiver Kyle Ford sets aside frustration to finish strong at USC

New focus in life has USC’s Emmanuel Pregnon blocking out the pain

The Times of Troy: The big-play receiver USC needed was there all along: Makai Lemon

What I’m watching this week

I didn’t grow up watching wrestling. My mom, in fact, wouldn’t allow it in our house. But I’ve really enjoyed Mr. McMahon, the six-part Netflix series on now-former WWE chairman Vince McMahon. The series offers a thrilling glimpse into wrestling’s behind-the-scenes drama, which, for my money, is more fascinating than any in-the-ring theatrics. It also doesn’t pull on any punches on McMahon, which is a rarity these days in the sports doc world.