The Democratic and Republican candidates in the November 5 battle for the White House have turned their attention to two key swing states in the southwest of the United States, as the gruelling campaign race goes into the final days locked in a dead heat.
Kamala Harris and Donald Trump both held events on Thursday in Arizona and Nevada, whose high Latino populations could shape the election outcome.
But first, Trump made a detour to Albuquerque, the largest city in New Mexico, a state he lost by 11 points in 2020 and is not expected to be competitive this year.
“I’m here for one simple reason: I like you very much, and it’s good for my credentials with the Hispanic or Latino community,” Trump told rallygoers.
Latinos, estimated to comprise a record-high 14.7 percent of all eligible US voters this year, have traditionally favoured Democrats but recently swayed more towards Republicans.
The latest New York Times/Siena poll showed Harris with only 52 percent of support among Hispanic voters, well below the 66 percent who voted for President Joe Biden in 2020. Trump has closed the gap in 2024 with 42 percent of Hispanics, according to the poll.
However, some of that momentum may have shifted after a headline comedian at Trump’s New York rally Sunday delivered a series of crude jokes about migrants and Puerto Rico, prompting several Latino leaders and celebrities to back Harris.
“Nobody loves our Latino community and our Puerto Rican community more than I do”, Trump said after distancing himself from the comedian.
Polls deadlocked
Later Thursday, Trump is scheduled to rally in Hendersonville, Nevada, before joining ex-Fox News host Tucker Carlson for a live show in Glendale, Arizona.
Harris, for her part, will kick the day off with a rally in Phoenix, Arizona, before travelling to neighbouring Nevada. One event, in Las Vegas, will feature pop icon Jennifer Lopez, who has been outspoken for the vice president, and the Mexican rock band, Mana.
The dash westwards comes as Trump and Harris remain all but deadlocked in the polls, with the seven key swing states likely to decide the race too close to call.
Trump currently holds a slight advantage in the states of Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona, while Harris has a small edge in Wisconsin and Michigan, according to the aggregate of polls. The candidates are separated by several tenths of a percentage point in Pennsylvania and Nevada, the polls show.
In a concern for both parties, Hispanics have historically failed to turn out in large numbers in past elections. That trend appears to be repeating itself in early voting this year.
More than 62 million people have already voted early, according to data from the University of Florida Election Lab, with Hispanics so far lagging well behind other racial and ethnic groups, accounting for only 2 percent of ballots cast, more than 10 points below the group’s share of eligible voters, according to the Pew Research Center.
On the other hand, Black voters are turning out early in larger numbers, making up 22 percent of early votes compared with 14 percent of their share of registered voters.
Women beat early path to polls
Women are also leading men to the polls in early voting by almost an 11-point margin (54 percent vs 43 percent) in several states that track gender data.
That could be an encouraging sign for Harris, who polls ahead of Trump with women, and has sought to centre reproductive rights in her campaign message.
Early Thursday, Harris rebuked Trump for his remarks the day before that he wants to “protect the women of our country… whether the women like it or not”.
Harris said the statement was “offensive to everybody” and “very offensive to women in terms of not understanding their agency”.
Trump, she told reporters, “does not prioritise the freedom of women and the intelligence of women to make decisions about their own lives and bodies”.
Immigration
Trump, meanwhile, is betting frustrations over the Biden-Harris administration’s immigration policy will swing border state Arizona back in his favour after current President Joe Biden beat him there in 2020.
Mike Madrid, a Republican political consultant who has studied the Latino vote for decades, told the NewsNation channel that the race could hinge on which party performs better with their traditional voting blocs.
“Can the Democrats hold on to their US-born Hispanic male base to a greater extent than Republicans can hold on to their white, college-educated female, suburban voter base? That’s the whole race,” said Madrid.