As the war in Ukraine entered its third year, experts in Europe feared a dark future for the region with the prospect of a protracted Russia-Ukraine conflict. Experts in Asia have reacted not differently with the new Japanese Prime Minister putting forward NATO-like security structure ideas in Asia. Some Asian experts feel ‘Asian NATO’ will not only weaken or break multilateralism in the Asia-Pacific, but could benefit China more.
Goh Choon Kang, former journalist and MP, Republic of Singapore has strongly criticized and blamed “hegemonic” eastward expansion of NATO for triggering the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine. Goh Choon Kang was reacting to hawkish Shigeru Ishiba, the new Japanese Prime Minister’s first policy speech made three days after taking office on October 4, in which Ishiba reiterated the warning that “today’s Ukraine could be tomorrow’s East Asia.”
Apparently, there are two reasons for Goh taking a swipe at Ishiba. One, through NATO’s proxy war in Ukraine, the US has dragged the whole of Europe into the conflict in order to weaken Russia; two, knowing full well that most countries in the Asia-Pacific region do not wish to choose sides, the US now – through Tokyo, wants to drag the region into a conflict in order to weaken and contain China.
Speaking about the war in Europe, Goh it seems has inadvertently echoed views of some European experts. “[Both China and] Russia is unwilling to submit to the unipolar hegemony dominated by the US and Europe, and are striving to create a multipolar balance known as the ‘Eurasian-Westphalian world order,’ Goh reasoned. “This multipolar system rejects the Western framework based on values like democracy and freedom, and emphasizes respect for the diversity of civilizations and the equality of sovereign independence,” he further argued. Most interestingly, Goh succinctly observed the US has been unable to subdue China and Russia through various economic means, the battle over the future world order will continue to become increasingly militarised.
Earlier in May, as the war in Ukraine entered its third year, in an analytical commentary, Katia Glod, a Policy Fellow at the London-based European Leadership Network (ELN), had provocatively asked the European leaders to “define the war’s purpose.” Katia’s reason was the same as Goh’s. Fearing the Ukraine-Russia war might be heading into a protracted conflict, Katia dreaded both – a darker future for Europe, and Russia emerging stronger from the conflict. “For Russia’s president Vladimir Putin, the war is no longer about Ukraine but about establishing a ‘new world order’ in opposition to that of the West. European leaders should seek an appropriate solution to the challenge posed by Russia’s leadership to the rules-based order,” she wrote.
But Shigeru Ishiba’s idea of a NATO-like security structure in Asia, or an Asian NATO, has been receiving widespread scepticism and criticism both within Japan and in Asia, respectively. Japan’s Kyodo News recently reported “the idea has been met with scepticism both domestically and internationally and he has appeared to put the controversial issue on the back burner with a general election scheduled later in the month.” In the same news report, the Chinese Defence Ministry spokesperson, Wu Qian, was quoted as saying Shigeru Ishiba “has hyped up the non-existent ‘China threat’ in an attempt to divert international community’s attention from its [Japan’s] military expansion.”
Just like its criticism of Ishiba, the Chinese Communist Party’s official organ People’s Daily (PD), or Renmin Ribao, has been relentlessly condemning Tokyo’s “wrong policy of colluding with NATO” ever since Japan resumed attending NATO summits recently. Not long ago, PD published a commentary in Chinese language by a Japanese scholar who is a Professor Emeritus in Yamaguchi University in Japan, demanding Japan “should promote Japan-China friendship. Building an ‘Asia-Pacific version of NATO’ is not what most Japanese people want. Japan should stop the wrong policy of colluding with NATO, and contribute to maintaining peace and stability in the Asian region.”
Elsewhere in Asia, outrightly dismissing Ishiba’s idea of Asian NATO, the Jakarta Post (JP) edit on the eve of recently held ASEAN summit “advised” the new Japanese leader, saying “when introducing himself to ASEAN leaders during their annual summit, which will be held in Vientiane next week, newly elected Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba should refrain from promoting his grand idea to establish an Asian version of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in order to avoid self-humiliation.” With a blunt “No” to Ishiba, it further said [he] does not have much to offer in order to lure ASEAN leaders amid Japan’s declining economic power and the rising economic scale of ASEAN.
India, viewed as a close strategic partner and security “ally” of Japan and China’s bitter rival, too has been quick and prompt in rejecting the new Japanese Prime Minister’s Asian NATO idea. Speaking at an event in Washington on the day Shigero Ishiba took office, the Indian Foreign Minister S Jaishankar disagreed with the Japanese leader saying India neither shares Ishiba’s vision for Asian NATO nor India had been a treaty ally of another country. Jaishankar’s remarks are being viewed as categorical rejection of Ishiba’s call for QUAD partner countries supporting his [Ishiba’s] seeking changes in the Asian security structure that would deter China from using military force in Asia.
To return to the awakening call Goh Choong Kang has been making for the Southeast Asian and most Asia Pacific countries against the “unipolar hegemony dominated by the US and Europe,” the Asian nations would be wiser in not getting dragged into a “real” NATO or a “mini” NATO triggered conflict with China. As Kotla Glod, cited above, has reminded the leaders in Europe, that as the situation on the battlefield in Russia-Ukraine war is changed to the detriment of Ukraine, the “prolonged war” scenario is becoming a prescription for a darker Europe in the coming days.
Furthermore, as Kolta warns the European leaders that the prolonged Russia-Ukraine war is certain to become a “creeping escalation” that would lead to European disunity, i.e., Western Europe versus Eastern Europe, and Northern countries versus Southern ones. “The EU would no longer be a union of values but an intergovernmental confederation. The EU’s further enlargement would be problematic. It could stumble or may halt altogether, as member states would like to reduce the risks of war with Russia over Ukraine,” she warned.
Finally, aware of similar disunity dangers not only within ASEAN but in the larger Asia Pacific region nations, Goh Choong Kang refers to Norwegian political scientist Glenn Diesen’s new book The Ukraine War & the Eurasian World Order, which warns that the post-Cold War unipolar world order established by the US and the West is now dead, but the new order is yet to be born, leading to intense turbulence and conflict. It is this plausible danger, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, that the Asian NATO’s entry may cause which the new Japanese Prime Minister is shockingly ignoring.