Dodgers Dugout: Here’s why the Dodgers will beat the Yankees in the World Series

Sports Desk

4 hours ago

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Hi, and welcome to another edition of Dodgers Dugout. My name is Houston Mitchell. Will it be a Fall Classic, or a classic fall?

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The Dodgers and Yankees are meeting for the 12th time in the World Series. The Yankees have won eight of them, but it’s a 2-2 split since the Dodgers moved to L.A.

It should be a great series, and the Dodgers will once again have to walk a tightrope with their bullpen usage throughout the series.

This worked great for the NLDS and NLCS, so let’s compare the teams at each position.

Catcher

Will Smith, .248/.327/.433, 20 homers, 75 RBIs, 116 OPS+, 3.5 WAR
In this postseason: .158/.289/.316, 6 for 38, 2 homer, 6 RBIs, 1 steal, 7 walks, 6 K’s

Austin Wells, .229/.322/.395, 13 homers, 55 RBIs, 103 OPS+, 2.5 WAR
Postseason: .091/.167/.182, 3 for 33, 1 homer, 3 RBIs, 3 walks, 15 K’s

Smith fell into a lengthy slump about midway through the season but seemed to be coming out of it the last couple of weeks. He has had a quiet postseason except for two mammoth home runs. The walks are a positive, as he’s not chasing pitches. Wells has also had a poor postseason, but is the type of overlooked player who can kill you in a short series.

Edge: Dodgers

First base
Freddie Freeman, .282/.378/.476, 22 homers, 89 RBIs, 143 OPS+, 4.7 WAR
Postseason: .219/.242/.219, 7 for 32, 1 RBI, 1 steal, 1 walk, 6 K’s

Anthony Rizzo, .228/.301/.335, 8 homers, 35 RBIs, 81 OPS+, 0.2 WAR
Postseason: .429/.500/.500, 6 for 14, 1 double, 2 walks, 3 K’s

It’s amazing that Freeman can play on what is obviously a painful ankle, but his hitting has gotten progressively worse through the postseason. His power is gone, and the Dodgers are 3-0 without him. Rizzo also has an injury: a broken finger. It has robbed him of his power too, but he had a good ALCS otherwise. Freeman would normally have the edge, but with his injury …

Edge: Even

Second base
Gavin Lux, .251/.320/.383, 10 homers, 50 RBIs, 101 OPS+, 2.1 WAR
Postseason: .208/.259/.333, 5 for 24, 1 homer, 3 RBIs, 2 walks, 3 K’s

Gleyber Torres, .257/.330/.378, 15 homers, 63 RBIs, 101 OPS+, 1.8 WAR
Postseason: .297/.400/.432, 11 for 37, 2 doubles, 1 homer, 5 RBIs, 7 walks, 5 K’s

Lux got off to a horrific start this year before hitting .304 with power after the All-Star break and continued to hit well in the NLDS, with some solid defensive plays. He then had a shaky NLCS and injured a hip. Torres was the center of controversy after he publicly refused to move from second base after the Yankees acquired Jazz Chisholm Jr. at the trade deadline. He has set the table nicely for the power hitters during the postseason, though.

Edge: Yankees

Third base
Max Muncy, .232/.358/.494, 15 homers, 48 RBIs, 141 OPS+, 3.0 WAR
Postseason: .242/.468/.545, 8 for 33, 1 double, 3 homers, 5 RBIs, 2 steals, 12 walks, 10 K’s

Jazz Chisholm Jr., .256/.324/.436, 24 homers, 73 RBIs, 107 OPS+, 2.7 WAR
Postseason: .147/.216/.265, 5 for 34, 1 double, 1 homer, 1 RBI, 2 steals, 2 walks, 11 K’s

Muncy is the poster boy for why you can’t judge by just batting average. He has reached base in almost half of his postseason appearances. Chisholm was a key pickup at the trade deadline who has good power and shouldn’t be overlooked despite his poor postseason.

Edge: Dodgers

Shortstop
Tommy Edman, .237/.294/.417, 6 homers, 20 RBIs, 101 OPS+, 0.9 WAR
Postseason: .341/.333/.477, 15 for 44, 3 doubles, 1 homer, 12 RBIs, 3 steals, 6 K’s

Anthony Volpe, .243/.293/.364, 12 homers, 60 RBIs, 86 OPS+, 3.4 WAR
Postseason: .310/.459/.345, 9 for 29, 1 double, 1 RBI, 2 steals, 8 walks, 6 K’s

The postseason often sees the rise of an unlikely star on a championship team. For the Dodgers, Edman has been that person so far. He was the NLCS MVP and has played well defensively at shortstop in the absence of Miguel Rojas. Should Rojas return, Edman might move back to center, or they could just leave Rojas on the bench. Volpe has been that guy for the Yankees, getting key hits when the team needed it to go with his steady defense.

Edge: Dodgers

Left field
Teoscar Hernández, .272/.339/.501, 33 homers, 99 RBIs, 137 OPS+, 4.3 WAR
Postseason: .200/.340/.350, 8 for 40, 2 homers, 8 RBIs, 1 steal, 9 walks, 13 K’s

Alex Verdugo, .233/.291/.356, 13 homers, 61 RBIs, 83 OPS+, 0.7 WAR
Postseason: .194/.286/.258, 6 for 31, 2 doubles, 3 RBIs, 4 walks, 4 K’s

Hernández has been a revelation this season and rises to the big moments, but he slumped badly in the NLCS before rebounding in Game 6. Verdugo was traded, along with two others, for Mookie Betts and could be extra motivated against his old team.

Edge: Dodgers

Center field
Kiké Hernández, .229/.281/.373, 12 homers, 42 RBIs, 85 OPS+, 1.3 WAR
Postseason: .303/.378/.485, 10 for 33, 2 homers, 5 RBIs, 3 walks, 8 K’s

Aaron Judge, .322/.458/.701, 58 homers, 144 RBIs, 223 OPS+. 10.8 WAR
Postseason: .161/.317/.387, 5 for 31, 1 double, 2 homers, 6 RBIs, 1 steal, 7 walks, 13 K’s

Once again, the Dodgers are forced to find room to start Hernández in the postseason because he hits so well. There might not be a player in history who was so average during the season and so great during the postseason as he has been throughout his career. Judge is perhaps the best player in the game today. Equal, if not slightly better, to Ohtani at the plate, though not as many steals. He has been in a slump this postseason, and the Dodgers can only hope it stays that way. It’s not often the two best players in the game meet in the World Series, so enjoy the show.

Edge: Yankees

Right field
Mookie Betts, .289/.372/.491, 19 homers, 75 RBIs, 145 OPS+, 4.8 WAR
Postseason: .295/.404/.659, 13 for 44, 4 doubles, 4 homers, 12 RBIs, 2 steals, 8 walks, 8 K’s

Juan Soto, .288/.419/.569, 41 homers, 109 RBIs, 178 OPS+, 7.9 WAR
Postseason: .333/.439/.667, 11 for 33, 2 doubles, 3 homers, 8 RBIs, 7 walks, 7 K’s

Betts looks locked in now at the plate and is a Gold Glove level defender. Soto is also locked in and isn’t quite as good on defense. Usually the Dodgers have the big edge at this position, but right now, the edge they have is very slight.

Edge: Dodgers

Designated hitter
Shohei Ohtani, .310/.390/.646, 54 homers, 130 RBIs, 190 OPS+, 9.2 WAR
Postseason: .286/.434/.599, 12 for 42, 3 homers, 10 RBIs, 11 walks, 17 K’s

Giancarlo Stanton, .233/.298/.475, 27 homers, 72 RBIs, 115 OPS+, 0.7 WAR
Postseason: .294/.385/.794, 10 for 34, 2 doubles, 5 homers, 11 RBIs, 7 walks, 5 K’s

Ohtani is great, of course, and shook off that weird slump with the bases empty. He has been waiting for this moment his entire professional life. Stanton is good and is having a great postseason, but the edge here is clear.

Edge: Dodgers

Starting pitching

Dodgers
Jack Flaherty, 6-2, 3.58 ERA (1-2, 7.04 ERA this postseason)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto, 7-2, 3.00 ERA (1-0, 5.11)
Walker Buehler, 1-6, 5.38 ERA (0-1, 6.00)
Landon Knack, 3-5, 3.65 ERA (0-0, 15.00)

Yankees
Gerrit Cole, 8-5, 3.41 ERA (1-0, 3.31)
Carlos Rodón, 16-9, 3.96 ERA (1-1, 4.40)
Clarke Schmidt, 5-5, 2.85 (0-0, 3.86)
Luis Gil, 15-7, 3.50 ERA (0-0, 4.50)

Buehler looked great in his last outing, and Yamamoto has pitched better than his ERA. You aren’t going to get more than five innings out of either of them. Flaherty has been iffy, but has the ability to throw seven innings. It’s unlikely Knack gets a start, as the “fourth starter” will be the bullpen. Cole is a perennial Cy Young candidate and won it in 2023. All the Yankees’ starters average just over five innings a start, so the Dodgers need to knock them out early and get to the weaker members of the bullpen.

Edge: Yankees

Bullpen

Dodgers
Evan Phillips, 5-1, 3.62 ERA, 18 saves (2-0, 0.00 ERA)
Alex Vesia, 5-4, 1.76 ERA, 5 saves (0-0, 0.00)
Anthony Banda, 3-2, 3.08 ERA, 2 saves (0-0, 1.59)
Daniel Hudson, 6-2, 3.00 ERA, 10 saves (0-0, 2.08)
Blake Treinen, 7-3, 1.93 ERA, 1 save (0-0, 3 saves, 1.13)
Michael Kopech, 4-0, 1.13 ERA, 6 saves (1-0, 1.69)
Ben Casparius, 2-0, 2.16 ERA (1-0, 0.00)

Yankees
Luke Weaver, 7-3, 2.89 ERA, 4 saves (1-0, 4 saves, 2.61)
Tommy Kahnle, 0-2, 2.11 ERA, 1 save (1-0, 1 save, 0.00)
Clay Holmes, 3-5, 3.14 ERA, 30 saves (2-1, 3.52)
Tim Hill, 3-0, 2.05 ERA (0-0, 1.59)
Mark Leiter Jr., 2-1, 4.98 ERA (1-0, 3.86)
Jake Cousins, 2-1, 2.37 ERA, 1 save (0-0, 6.75)
Tim Mayza, 0-1, 4.00 ERA (0-0, 0.00)
Marcus Stroman, 10-9, 4.31 ERA, 1 save (has not pitched)

Vesia and Brusdar Graterol are coming off injuries and their roster status is uncertain, but it seemed Vesia was more probable for the roster than Graterol. The Dodger bullpen has been outstanding this postseason and Roberts will have to navigate using multiple relievers in every game. Can the relievers last without their arms falling off, like Brandon Morrow in 2017? Also, the Yankees destroyed Cleveland’s bullpen, which was the best in the majors this season. Yankees relievers were 13th in the 15-team AL in inherited runners who scored percentage. They are prone to giving up walks and they don’t have a lights-out closer.

Edge: Dodgers

Bench

Dodgers
Austin Barnes
Kevin Kiermaier
Chris Taylor
Andy Pages

Yankees
Jose Trevino
Jon Berti
Oswaldo Cabrera
Jasson Dominguez

Edge: Dodgers

That’s eight for the Dodgers, three for the Yankees and one even. If they played the series on paper, Dodgers win! But they don’t play it on paper.

There is a variable at play for the Dodgers. If Miguel Rojas is healthy enough to play, then either he, Edman or Kiké will be on the bench, probably Rojas, with Kiermaier probably off the roster. Which could pose a problem, because center field in Yankee Stadium is immense, and it would be nice to have Kiermaier around for late-inning defense. Barnes has played in only one game this postseason and hasn’t come to bat.

The keys for the Dodgers are the same as against the Padres and Mets. Get as much out of the starting pitchers as possible. Get an early lead. Turn it over to the bullpen. Add some insurance runs. Win the game. If it was only that simple. They are facing a Yankees team that is similar to them on offense. They are very patient and work the count, waiting for their pitch. They won’t chase balls outside the zone. They put a lot of wear on a pitching staff. It will be a series of attrition. Whose pitching can hold out?

Prediction: Dodgers in seven.

Freddie’s back

Freddie Freeman said this week that he is definitely going to be ready for the World Series.

“I can still hit, I can do all that kind of stuff,” Freeman said. “And I’m now at three straight days of not running and just only treating it. So every day is going to be better.”

Freeman seemed to get progressively worse at the plate and on the field in the NLCS.

“A week or so ago, I could get through four or five innings before I was having trouble walking,” Freeman said. “And obviously in Game 5, it started happening pretty much right after my first at-bat. Believe me, when I walk through those front doors of our clubhouse, everything gets checked at the door, and all I want to do is win. And I’m obviously compromised with my ankle, so if I’m not in the lineup that day, that means the best options are with our guys. And I have the most confidence [in them].”

Rotation plans

The Dodgers announced that Jack Flaherty will pitch Game 1 and Yoshinobu Yamamoto will pitch Game 2. This allows Flaherty to start Game 5 on his normal four days’ rest and Yamamoto in Game 6 on his normal five days’ rest. Game 3 will be either Walker Buehler or a bullpen game, with Game 4 being the same. Of course, starting Buehler in Game 3 lines him up to be ready to start Game 7. Whatever the status of the series is by the time Game 3 comes around will go a long way in determining what happens.

Charley Steiner update

Dodgers radio announcer Charley Steiner has been out all season with what he said was a broken back. Turns out, he was actually battling cancer.

As Bill Plaschke writes, “He endured constant debilitating lower back pain. He lost 50 pounds. He was confined to a wheelchair. He initially moved his bed from the second floor of his Westside home down to the family room because he couldn’t climb the stairs. He enlisted the full-time help of nurses. It wasn’t pretty.”

Steiner had multiple myeloma blood cancer. The good news is it is now in remission.

“Remission is a beautiful word,” he said this week. “Monday was one of those days where it was like, OK, we’re good.”

The hope is Steiner will return next year to broadcast games again for the Dodgers.

Fernando patch

The Dodgers will wear a patch honoring Fernando Valenzuela during the World Series and throughout the 2025 season.

Your memories of Fernando

Please share your memories of Fernando, to be published in upcoming newsletters. Put Fernando memories in the subject line of your email and send to me at fernandomemories@yahoo.com.

First pitch

The Dodgers announced Thursday that the ceremonial first pitch for Game 1 will be thrown by Orel Hershiser and Steve Yeager. Game 2 will be Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp.

Who do you think will win?

Who do you think will win the World Series, and in how many games? Vote here and let us know.

World Series schedule

All times Pacific
All games on Fox
All games at 5:08 p.m.

Friday, New York (Gerrit Cole) at Dodgers (Jack Flaherty)
Saturday, New York (x-Carlos Rodón ) at Dodgers (Yoshinobu Yamamoto)
Monday at New York
Tuesday at New York
*Wednesday at New York
*Friday, Nov. 1 at Dodgers
*Saturday, Nov. 2 at Dodgers

*-if necessary
x-left-handed