Tesla Delivers Blowout Quarter, Lays Out Bold Ambitions for 2025

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(Bloomberg) — Elon Musk handily added $80 billion to Tesla Inc.’s market value on a blowout quarter for the EV maker, which notched its most profitable results in more than a year.

Third-quarter earnings were buoyed by sales of the Cybertruck, which turned a profit for the first time, its energy-storage business and a spike in regulatory tax credits that other automakers pay to meet emissions rules. But the stock was also bid up by hopes for the future: An ebullient Musk spent a long portion of Wednesday’s call on a monologue that promised to make Tesla the most valuable company in the world, starting with 20% to 30% delivery growth next year.

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Musk, who is known for missing overly optimistic timelines, said Tesla aims to officially roll out ridesharing in Texas and California next year. Although driving on public roads would require regulatory approval, Musk’s comments sent shares in competitors Uber Technologies Inc. and Lyft Inc. lower.

Musk also said that production of the dedicated robotaxi, which he calls the Cybercab, will reach volume volume production in 2026 and that the company is aiming for at least 2 million units — and “maybe 4 million ultimately.”

“Investors who wanted something today got better-than-expected profit and guidance for growth in deliveries,” said Gene Munster, managing partner of Deepwater Asset Management. “The long-term investors got the golden carrot.”

Musk also said Tesla was on track to roll out affordable models next year, but he disabused a long-held expectation by some investors that the company would roll out an electric vehicle to compete with mass-market autos such as the Toyota Corolla. Instead, Musk said the EV maker was focusing on its autonomous Cybercab, which he said would start out around $30,000. A regular $25,000 EV would be “pointless,” Musk said, noting that all Tesla cars being produced will have autonomous capabilities.

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The billionaire also used the earnings call for his only publicly traded company to tout what he would do with a potential job in a Trump administration should the former president go back to the White House. While Musk didn’t mention Trump by name, he cited a “department of government efficiency” role that the Republican presidential candidate began floating for the Tesla CEO after Musk directed more than $75 million to his campaign. If appointed, Musk said he would create a pathway for federal approval of autonomous vehicles instead of the patchwork of state regulations that exist now.

Tesla shares soared 12% in postmarket trading in New York, potentially erasing much of the 14% decline the stock has posted so far this year through Wednesday’s close. 

‘Slight Growth’

The automaker projected “slight growth” in vehicle deliveries for the full year. That will require a record-breaking fourth quarter to overcome the slump Tesla saw in the first half of the year.

Tesla said the Cybertruck, which it first delivered late last year, has been boosted by increases in production. The company has not said how many trucks it has sold, but recalls show the company has delivered at least 27,000 in the US.

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Seth Goldstein, an analyst with Morningstar, said Tesla is benefitting from higher volumes and more stable prices. “Prices are stabilizing and unit costs are coming down,” he said in an interview.  

For the third quarter, Tesla reported adjusted earnings of 72 cents per share, beating the average analyst estimate and snapping four consecutive quarters in which the measure missed expectations. The company’s third-quarter automotive gross margin, excluding regulatory credits, was 17.1%, beating analysts’ estimates and up from the previous quarter, when it was 14.6%.

Low Expectations

Tesla’s strong earnings report came less than two weeks after a glitzy event dedicated to the company’s new robotaxi, which disappointed many investors.

Garrett Nelson, an analyst with CFRA Research, said investors had a low bar for this quarter and questioned whether Tesla can sustain the level of profitability.

“Expectations were low heading into the release after four consecutive bottom-line misses and a Robotaxi Day that left investors with more questions than answers” Nelson said in a research note to clients.

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Tesla said the increased profitability was due to higher delivery volumes as well as booming sales of regulatory credits to other carmakers needing help to meet their emissions requirements. Revenue from regulatory credits came to $739 million in the three months ended Sept. 30 — a record for the period but below the $890 million it earned in the second quarter.

The company also credited its energy business as a revenue driver. Tesla has already deployed more storage products so far this year than in all of 2023, including 6.9 gigawatt hours of storage this quarter.

The company is also expanding its charging network after the high-profile layoff of much of its supercharging team earlier this year. The company added 2,800 new stalls in the third quarter, a 22% increase from the previous year. 

Robotaxi

On robotaxi, Tesla’s vehicle without controls such as pedals or a steering wheel, the company said it will use a new unboxed manufacturing technique, which differs from a traditional production line by assembling parts simultaneously in dedicated areas before putting everything together at the end. 

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Musk said he expects autonomous versions of his other vehicles as well: “There’s no need to wait for robotaxi or Cybercab to experience full autonomy. We expect to achieve that with our existing vehicle lineup.” 

He even dropped a hint about air taxis when asked about the slow development of a promised Roadster model. The CEO said Tesla remains focused on mass-market vehicles first as part of its sustainability goals, but indicated his company is “close to finalizing the design” on that vehicle. He added that Peter Thiel — Musk’s billionaire friend and venture capitalist — lamented about a lack of flying cars, to which Musk mused “we’ll see.”

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