Rogers says immigration cuts impacting subscriber growth

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A reduction in the number of newcomers being allowed into Canada is already having on impact on subscriber growth at Rogers Communications Inc., the telecom giant said during its third quarter earnings call on Thursday.

“We certainly saw lower volumes and size of market in the third quarter as a result of government limitations on foreign students (and) temporary workers,” chief executive Tony Staffieri told analysts, adding that curbs on immigration were starting to be felt in the fourth quarter as well.

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Rogers reported adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) of $2.55 billion for the third quarter, up six per cent from 2023. It said the increase was a result of synergies associated to its acquisition of Shaw Communications Inc. as well as ongoing cost efficiencies.

Adjusted diluted earnings were $1.42 per share, up 12 per cent.

Wireless subscriber counts, however, a key performance indicator, grew less in the quarter compared to the same period last year.

Subscribers who are new to Canada, a category in which Staffieri said Rogers has traditionally performed extremely well, were down 40 per cent year-over-year, he said.

Despite the slowdown, Staffieri said the size of the wireless market continued to grow, adding that once other telcos have reported results, he expects the industry show growth of somewhere between four and four-and-a-half per cent.

On top of gains from increased market penetration and population growth, the company has been focused on moving its customers from flanker brands Chatr Mobile and Fido into the Rogers premium brand.

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The telco said the decrease in gross additions in the quarter was a result of a “less active market” and its focus on attracting subscribers to the premium 5G Rogers brand.

The company had 459,000 gross additions and 101,000 net additions for its postpaid mobile phone service in the quarter, down from 556,000 gross and 225,000 net additions in the same quarter in 2023. This brings the total postpaid subscriber count to almost 10.7 million in the third quarter, with a monthly churn of 1.12 per cent from 1.08 per cent.

Total prepaid mobile subscribers, however, were down to 1.16 million from 1.28 million in 2023. It had 185,000 gross additions for prepaid in Q3, a decrease from 263,000 gross additions in the same quarter last year. Net additions grew to 93,000 subscribers from last year’s 36,000.

Net additions for retail internet was up by 15,000 to 33,000 subscribers in the quarter. This pus combined net additions for mobile phone and internet at 227,000 customers in the third quarter.

In terms of the size of its market outside of “the new to Canada” category, Staffieri said Rogers has seen a 2.5 to 3 per cent growth over the last year as a result of penetration growth.

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Rogers also announced that it’s working on a $7 billion structured equity financing with an undisclosed leading global financial investor, which it expects will result in a debt leverage ratio of 3.7x at year-end.

It said Rogers will maintain full operational control of its networks. The transaction is expected to close in the fourth quarter.

National Bank analyst Adam Shine said this transaction should be thought of as more of a supply agreement, rather than a sale-leaseback because it doesn’t involve any sale of shares.

Shine estimates distributions to the minority investor will be in the range of $400 million.

Last month, Rogers revealed that it will buy out BCE Inc.’s stake in Maple Leaf Sports & Entertainment (MLSE) for $4.7 billion, becoming its majority owner.

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