As the 2024 U.S Presidential Elections draw closer, all eyes are set on the outcome that will not only define the future trajectory of the global leader itself but will also determine the fate of the rest of the world for the next four years. With a paradigm shift in global politics on the horizon, there lies a possibility of major alignments being formed at the diplomatic, economic and security fronts, respectively. With world leaders closely monitoring the evolving geopolitical landscape, a burning question now arises. How will the dynamics of the U.S-Pakistan relations be shaped and unfold? In recent years, it is evident that the bilateral relations are in need of immediate revitalisation as Pakistan holds less priority for the current superpower after its withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021. At this critical juncture, it is now imperative for Pakistan to demonstrate political acumen and calibrate its strategies in line with its long-term strategic interests with the global hegemon.
America’s Policy towards Pakistan under Trump Administration (2016-2020)
The U.S–Pakistan relationship has been characterised as transactional and tactical, lacking depth and cooperation. During the Trump Administration, security concerns had been a bone of contention that defined the tumultuous relationship between the two states. Washington emphasised on making economic ties with Pakistan contingent on the country taking stringent measures against the terrorist and military groups that allegedly operate from the sanctuaries and safe havens that are harbouring them. As a result, the United States suspended $1.3 billion in security assistance to Pakistan, citing the country’s lack of commitment and cooperation in resolving these challenges. It is pertinent to highlight that the United States had adopted pressure tactics to force Islamabad to cooperate with the U.S in curtailing the growth of militants in Afghanistan. In 2019, the IMF took belt-tightening measures under the pretext of resuscitating Pakistan’s ailing economy which included a $6 billion bailout package. Additionally, U.S diplomat, Alice Wells expressed reservations regarding the CPEC Project, worth $62 billion dollars, claiming that it is an acute ‘Debt Trap’ and that Pakistan will find itself in a vicious cycle of debt stress as the project will take a toll on the economy. The United States had also used FATF as a political instrument to coerce Pakistan to toe the U.S line as the country was placed in the ‘grey list’ owing to deficiencies in counter-terrorist financing. Moreover, the Trump Administration had even suspended training and educational programmes for Pakistani military officers, which essentially stood as a shining testament to the bilateral military cooperation between the two states for decades. Nevertheless, the relations between the two countries thawed when Pakistan committed to facilitate the Afghan peace process in a concerted effort to advance peace in the region and endeavoured to maintain cordial relations and cooperate with the United States. The America’s peace envoy for Afghanistan, Zalmay Khalilzad, hailed Pakistan for playing an instrumental role in bringing the Taliban to the negotiating table with the United States which culminated in the signing of the U.S-Taliban Peace Deal, commonly referred to as the Doha Agreement, paving the way for the U.S military withdrawal from Afghanistan.
America’s Regional Alliance with India under Trump Administration
The ironclad friendship between Pakistan and China widens the rift between Pakistan and the United States as the latter views Pak-China ties through a maximalist lens. The Trump Administration strengthened relations with Pakistan’s adversary, India, through Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) and by declaring it as a strategic partner to counterbalance the growing influence of China in the region, straining U.S-Pakistan relations. Both the countries continue to solidify their defence cooperation by signing numerous military accords including the Logistics Exchange Memorandum in 2016, Communications and Security Agreement in 2018, and Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement in 2020. It is worth mentioning that the U.S also allowed India to have licence-free access to dual-use technologies from U.S entities by granting it the Strategic Trade Authority-1 Status. More recently, the Republican Senator, Marco Rubio proposed the US-India Defence Cooperation Act which will not only support technology transfers to India but also prohibit Pakistan from receiving security assistance if evidence suggests its involvement in sponsoring terrorist activities against India. New Delhi’s strategic collaboration with Washington bolsters its military capabilities. As these actions are emboldening India and its strategic buildup, Pakistan’s fears surrounding a full-blown regional confrontation are aggravated and increased manifold. As a consequence, Pakistan has also lost confidence in America’s ability to act as a neutral arbitrator by mediating crises and de-escalating conflicts as it continues to demonstrate bipartisan support towards India. It is imperative to note that heavy criticism has been heaped on Pakistan for its democratic failings, human rights violations, religious intolerance, freedom of press and discrimination against minorities while India has not even remotely been rebuked for the blatant mistreatment and callous disregard of the Muslims in Kashmir, especially after the revocation of the region’s special status under Article 370 of the Indian constitution. This alarming situation implies that the resolution of the Kashmir dispute will remain elusive if Donald Trump wins the elections and runs the Presidential office for the second term.
Will Pakistan be able to endure another Trump Presidency?
With Trump’s advocacy of the ‘America First’ ideology, inclination towards isolationism, and strict unilateralism, I reckon that the relations between Pakistan and the United States are expected to deteriorate as the United States’ security interests are likely to diminish in the region, now that it has withdrawn from Afghanistan. Moreover, as the balance of power is heavily in favour of India, the regional security equilibrium is expected to be jeopardised by the volatile relationship between India and Pakistan. India’s preferential treatment will inevitably lead Pakistan into China’s embrace as the country will strengthen its alliance and align more closely with the rising power. Nonetheless, it is recommended for Pakistan and the United States to adopt a de-hyphenated foreign policy, influencing Pakistan’s economic stability, diplomatic relations and the regional security architecture of South Asia. The contours of the bilateral relations between both the states need to be developed and prospects for mutually beneficial cooperation should revolve around Pakistan’s strategic importance in balancing regional partnerships while concrete steps ought to be taken on part of the United States to alleviate Pakistan’s insecurities that are triggered by the U.S-India defence cooperation as well.