In an era defined by both traditional and non-traditional security threats, the Gulf Arab states face an unprecedented matrix of challenges, from Iran’s military and proxy activities to the shifting dynamics of US power, Chinese influence, and the impacts of climate change. These external threats are compounded by internal security vulnerabilities, underscoring the urgency of recalibrating their approach.
Fragmented Security Frameworks: A Continuing Challenge
Despite efforts to strengthen regional security, the Gulf Arab countries have not yet overcome their historical reliance on external guarantors, primarily the United States, a dependency that has persisted since the British withdrawal from East of Suez. This reliance, combined with internal rivalries and divergent responses to regional conflicts, has hindered the establishment of a unified defense strategy.
While some Gulf states, such as Kuwait, Qatar, and Bahrain, maintain formal defense cooperation agreements with Washington, the lack of a cohesive Gulf-wide military framework has left the region vulnerable. The absence of collective security efforts is particularly problematic given the evolving nature of threats that require an integrated regional response.
Shifting Global Dynamics: The Impact of US Policy Changes
The US military presence has long been a cornerstone of Gulf security, yet the shifting global order — marked by US competition with Russia and China, and Washington’s growing focus on the Indo-Pacific — has raised questions about the sustainability of American commitments. Major incidents, such as the 2019 drone attacks on Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq oil plant and Khurais field and the 2022 strikes on Abu Dhabi oil tanker trucks, have underscored this uncertainty. Washington’s tepid response to both incidents pushed Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to reevaluate their traditional security relationships and led them to hedge their bets with alternative partners.
Iran: The Regional Power Disruptor
Iran continues to be the most pressing security concern for the Gulf monarchies, despite the March 2023 Saudi-Iranian rapprochement brokered by Beijing. Tehran’s ballistic missile program, advanced drone capabilities, and extensive network of proxy groups have destabilized the region. Notwithstanding significant investments in military procurement, the Gulf states have not succeeded in effectively containing or deterring Iran’s influence. The imbalance between Iran’s asymmetric warfare tactics and the Gulf Arab states’ conventional military forces has only become more pronounced, triggering urgent discussions on enhancing deterrence capabilities.
The conflict in Yemen, particularly the Houthi attacks on commercial vessels since the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war, has added another layer of complexity to Gulf security. Yet, even before the conflict, maritime instability along the Red Sea had surged, with increased migration from the Horn of Africa exacerbating regional tensions. The Houthis’ collaboration with groups such as Al-Shabaab has further intensified concerns about human trafficking and piracy, adding to the Gulf states’ security burdens.
Localizing Defense Production and Pursuing Strategic Autonomy
Recognizing the limitations of relying on external powers, Gulf nations are diversifying their defense procurement and developing indigenous arms manufacturing capabilities. While the US remains their primary supplier of weapons systems, Gulf countries are increasingly turning to other partners, including China, Korea, India, European nations, and Turkey.
In addition, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have launched ambitious programs to localize defense production, with longstanding foreign suppliers supporting these efforts. In February 2024, for example, Saudi Arabia awarded subcontracts for local production of Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) launchers and missile system components from Lockheed Martin and KM-SAM Block II medium-range air defense systems from South Korea.
Though achieving global competitiveness is challenging, localization offers Gulf states strategic autonomy and greater flexibility in defense and foreign policy. Institutions such as Saudi Arabian Military Industries (SAMI), the General Authority for Military Industries (GAMI), and the UAE’s EDGE Group are at the forefront of these initiatives, focusing on producing light arms, drones, and armored vehicles.
However, success hinges on addressing challenges in research and development (R&D), skilled labor, and technical expertise. Intra-Gulf cooperation also holds promise. For instance, in 2021, the UAE’s NIMR announced plans to build a military vehicle plant in Saudi Arabia, leveraging the UAE’s design expertise and Saudi Arabia’s larger workforce to boost both nations’ defense capabilities. That said, the formation of joint Gulf defense industries remains a distant prospect.
Furthermore, while these efforts are unfolding alongside defense collaborations with non-Western nations, many weapons are still developed with foreign partners, making complete self-reliance unlikely. Moreover, Gulf states show no intention of entirely replacing foreign military imports, especially from the US.
Nevertheless, these initiatives, coupled with investments in border surveillance and drone technology, reflect a growing focus on self-reliance amid uncertain traditional alliances. The Gulf monarchies have also proposed joint military exercises, intelligence-sharing platforms, and integrated defense structures through the bloc’s “Vision for Regional Security.” However, internal political differences and rapidly evolving threats continue to hinder the effectiveness of these efforts.
Continued Dependence on US Security Backing
Despite ongoing efforts to boost self-reliance, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, two of Washington’s closest military allies in the Arab world, continue to seek stronger security backing from the US. This push is driven by the recognition that external support remains crucial for addressing complex regional threats.
At the same time, Washington has shown a renewed interest in responding to these demand signals. As Gulf states diversify their defense partnerships and China makes inroads in the region, the US has moved to formalize and deepen its military ties with key allies. Agreements like the 2024 Comprehensive Security Integration and Prosperity Agreement with Bahrain are part of this strategy. While these initiatives stop short of offering the full mutual defense guarantees of NATO, they aim to strengthen regional stability and counterbalance China’s growing influence.
Though recent developments have delayed closer US-Saudi ties, cooperation with the UAE has accelerated. The UAE’s designation as a Major Defense Partner reflects its strategic importance to US policy in the region and may grant it access to advanced systems such as THAAD and enhancing its missile defense capabilities. This approach aligns with Washington’s broader effort to encourage Gulf states to take greater responsibility for their defense, reducing the American military presence. It follows similar steps taken with key partners such as India, signaling a shift toward reinforcing strategic partnerships outside of formal military alliances.
Towards Regional Resilience: Addressing Non-Traditional Security Risks
The notion of security has evolved beyond state-based military conflicts to encompass non-state actors and unconventional threats that undermine societal stability and state security. While the Gulf monarchies have historically depended on external military alliances, particularly with the US, they are increasingly vulnerable to non-traditional risks that lie outside conventional defense agreements. Notably, climate change, resource scarcity, food security, and drug trafficking are reshaping the region’s security landscape and necessitating a more proactive approach.
Climate Change and Water Scarcity: The Gulf is among the most water-stressed regions globally, facing rising temperatures that threaten to render parts of it uninhabitable. The primary reliance on energy-intensive desalination exacerbates environmental challenges while the dependence on imported food heightens vulnerability to global supply chain disruptions. In response, Gulf nations are employing a range of water management approaches to meet increasing water demand and investing in sustainability initiatives like Riyadh’s Green Saudi initiative, which aims to plant billions of trees and generate 50% of energy from renewables by 2030. However, extreme heat, desertification, and dwindling groundwater reserves pose significant obstacles to these efforts.
Food Security: Food security is a pressing concern, as the region imports 80-90% of its food, making it highly susceptible to supply chain disruptions. While Gulf nations are diversifying food sources through vertical farming and overseas agricultural investments, competition for resources can exacerbate tensions, undermining collaboration.
Transnational Drug Trafficking: The illicit trafficking of Captagon, a potent amphetamine, represents a significant non-traditional security challenge. The rampant abuse of Captagon has fueled addiction, particularly among youth, while financing militant groups in conflict zones like Syria and Lebanon. This drug trade complicates law enforcement efforts and increases violence across the region, with porous borders facilitating smuggling. Enhancing border security and regional cooperation is crucial to address this urgent threat.
The Energy Transition and Economic Diversification: As global energy demand shifts, Gulf states must diversify their economies to mitigate the risks of over-reliance on fossil fuels. Gulf nations are channeling investments into sectors such as tourism, technology, and finance to build a more sustainable economic foundation and reduce reliance on oil. However, the slow pace indicates challenging times ahead in the coming decades.
Cybersecurity and Technological Vulnerabilities: Cyber threats have escalated alongside the Gulf’s rapid digitalization of infrastructure and defense systems. The region’s dependence on advanced technology makes it a prime target for cyberattacks from various actors aiming to disrupt critical industries. In response, Gulf governments prioritize enhancing cybersecurity frameworks and collaborating with international partners, though digital transformation often outpaces security measures.
The rising priority of these non-traditional security issues has become increasingly evident. However, although some of these challenges are inherently transnational, self-help and competition among Gulf states have eclipsed collaborative approaches to addressing them.
In the Line of Fire: The Risk of Regional Escalation
The Israel-Hamas conflict, Israel’s expanding military operations into Lebanon amidst attacks from Hezbollah, and heightened tensions with Iran create serious risks for Gulf security. As these dynamics unfold, Gulf Arab states have been united in seeking a Gaza ceasefire, aiming to prevent the conflict from escalating across the region. The July 31 killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran heightened fears of instability, with GCC nations condemning the act and calling for regional peace.
While Iran’s retaliatory actions did not directly threaten the Gulf, the implications of these actions were deeply felt across the region, particularly given the interconnected nature of Middle Eastern security dynamics. Gulf states are increasingly wary of potential disruptions to their economic and security interests. The use of Jordanian airspace by Tehran caused particular concern, especially since Jordan borders Saudi Arabia. This underscores the interconnected nature of regional security dynamics and the growing threat perceptions tied to both state and non-state actors.
In this context, Gulf states are particularly wary of the spillover effects of a wider regional conflict, which could severely disrupt their economic and security interests. Given the growing investments by Arab Gulf states, especially Saudi Arabia and the UAE, in regional economic corridor megaprojects that rely on maritime shipping, securing these waterways has become crucial. It is therefore not surprising that Saudi Arabia and the UAE view Houthi attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea as a significant threat to their trade and energy exports — a threat more pressing threat than the group’s control over parts of Yemen.
Spurred by the US, the Gulf states are developing their naval capabilities and assuming a larger share of maritime-security responsibilities in their regional waters. However, the maritime-security framework is expected to remain reliant on the US for the foreseeable future, though this reliance may lessen over time. The US push for burden-sharing through the “integrated deterrence strategy” is fostering more regional cooperation, but this approach will take time to fully develop.
In mid-September, against the backdrop of ongoing hostilities in Gaza and continuing Houthi attacks on ships traversing the Red Sea, the simmering conflict between Israel and Lebanon escalated dramatically. The expansion of the conflict into Lebanon began with a major Israeli sabotage operation against Hezbollah’s communication systems. There followed extensive strikes on missile launchers and targeted assaults on the group’s senior leadership, including the killing of longtime leader Hassan Nasrallah in an airstrike, marking a major escalation of Israel’s campaign; and an expanding military campaign in Lebanon.
The Gulf states, recognizing the futility of their diplomatic efforts concerning the Gaza conflict, have resigned themselves to viewing its resolution — along with the situation in Lebanon — as primarily a Western responsibility. While they may take some comfort in Iran’s current restraint, its sustainability remains in question. With their domestic legitimacy and economic priorities at stake, Gulf leaders are eager to avoid risky entanglements, limiting their reactions to assertive rhetoric while depending on the US to promote de-escalation between Israel and Hezbollah.
Navigating a Multipolar Security Landscape
The Gulf Arab states find themselves at a critical juncture, navigating a multipolar security environment where reliance on external powers is becoming an increasingly tenuous strategy. While the US remains a key partner, the growing complexity of the region’s security challenges — spanning Iranian aggression, environmental vulnerabilities, and internal political rivalries — demands a more adaptable, self-sufficient approach. However, such an approach seems far from materializing.
Meanwhile, the ongoing violence in the Middle East, especially the Israel-Hamas war and the expansion of the conflict into Lebanon, threatens to postpone indefinitely key transnational connectivity projects and potentially undermine the measured pragmatism that has shaped Gulf diplomacy the past several years. Gulf Arab regimes have shown little enthusiasm for openly supporting Hamas. Likewise, they have long viewed Hezbollah with distrust and hostility. Yet, mindful of the broad appeal of the Palestinian resistance and the risk of a resurgence of militant religious groups, they have opted for a cautious approach.
Ultimately, achieving their ambitious economic diversification goals hinges on maintaining regional stability, and the Gulf monarchies’ ability to swiftly address both traditional and non-traditional threats will determine their security and prosperity in the years to come.