Cameroon’s President Paul Biya’s month-long absence from the public eye is causing intense speculation about his health and raising fears of a post-Biya power struggle among political factions in the central African country.

Biya, who has long faced health suspicions, often disappears for weeks on end, only to resurface again. The long absences negatively impact the day-to-day running of a country facing multiple challenges, including a secessionist war in the west, and a militant conflict in the north, analysts say.

Here’s what to know about Biya’s disappearances and why Cameroonians are anxious about a post-Biya period:

Why are there speculations?

Biya has not appeared in public since September 8, after he attended the China-Africa forum, along with several of the continent’s leaders, in Beijing.

Ouverture officielle, ce 5 septembre 2024, du Forum sur la Coopération Sino-Africaine.
J’ai suivi avec attention, le programme en dix points exposé par S.E. Xi Jinping dans le cadre de la vision d’un partenariat stratégique global avec l’Afrique.#PaulBiya#Cameroun#FOCAC2024 pic.twitter.com/Cq6OSp8Au9

— President Paul BIYA (@PR_Paul_BIYA) September 5, 2024

The president has cancelled attendances at multiple high-level engagements where he was expected. He did not attend the United Nations General Assembly in September. He also did not appear at the International Organisation of La Francophonie, a summit of French-speaking countries, which was held on October 4 in Paris.

Civil society groups and opposition leaders in Cameroon have called for clarity on Biya’s whereabouts. Christian Ntimbane, a lawyer and politician who intends to run in the coming 2025 presidential elections, wrote an open letter to officials saying, “If he is on vacation, say so. If he is sick, say that too.”

Before his disappearance, Biya was scheduled for a summer of diplomacy, starting with the July opening ceremony of the Olympics in Paris. On August 15, he also attended a ceremony marking the 80th anniversary of the Allied parties’ landing in Provence, southern France, during the second World War.

Analysts say his absence is telling. Especially when the country stands at a crossroads: a secessionist war for an independent Ambazonia in the English-speaking west has raged since 2017, leading to the death of at least 6,000 people, and the displacement of 700,000 others according to the International Crisis Group.

In the north, the armed group Boko Haram, originally based in neighbouring Nigeria, has for years expanded its operations, launching large-scale incursions into Cameroon. Meanwhile, many people in the country are jobless, as the country faces high food and energy prices from its reliance on volatile oil revenue, according to the World Bank.

What has the government said?

Officials initially attempted to play down Biya’s absence from public events, saying that he is in good health in Switzerland – where he is believed to have gone to after the forum in Beijing.

Communications Minister Rene Sadi said in a statement early in October that speculations and rumours about the president’s health have “no connection with reality” and are “pure fantasy”. Sadi added, “The head of state is doing well and will return to Cameroon in the next few days.”

However, those assurances have had little effect. On October 9, Interior Minister Paul Atanga Nji banned Cameroonian media from “debate” and reporting on Biya’s health, saying it was a security issue, and that it “disturbed the tranquility” of Cameroonians.

In a letter addressed to regional governors of the country’s 10 provinces, Nji said further discussions of the president’s health would be punished, warning that anyone violating the order would “face the full force of the law”. Nji also ordered the governors to set up “monitoring cells” to monitor online content.

Journalists and media in the country and beyond have condemned the ban as an attempt to silence the press. Although it’s not uncommon for journalists to be targeted or arrested in the country, a specific rule banning discussion of Biya’s health is new territory, analysts say.

“Trying to hide behind national security on such a major issue of national importance is outrageous,” Angela Quintal, Africa program head at the Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ), a media rights advocacy group, said in a statement.

How common is this for Cameroon?

This is not the first time the president has been absent for weeks, nor is it new for Cameroonians to face uncertainty over his health.

At 91, Biya is Africa’s second-longest-serving leader. He came to power in 1982 and is only Cameroon’s second president since independence from France in 1960. His 42-year reign is second only to 82-year-old Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo, who has held power in Equatorial Guinea for 45 years.

Biya’s long absences from public eye and his palace in Cameroon’s capital Yaounde have earned him the nickname “roaming president”. A five-star hotel in Geneva, Switzerland, is known to be Biya’s favourite destination. It’s speculated that he undergoes medical treatment in the European country, but also goes on shopping sprees. His wife, Chantal Biya, is famous for her expensive taste.

By 2018 Biya had, excluding official trips, spent the equivalent of four and a half years away on “brief private visits” to Europe, according to an investigation by the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP). In 2006 and 2009, the president spent as much as a third of the year outside the country, according to investigators. The OCCRP found that a day’s stay at his preferred hotel in Geneva, along with that of his official entourage, costs about $40,000.

The prolonged absence “creates a governance vacuum, characterised by decision-making paralysis and increased bureaucratic inefficiency,” democracy activist Kathleen Ndongmo told Al Jazeera. “No one really knows who is leading the country. This lack of clear leadership consistently erodes public trust, fuels political instability, and undermines accountability,” she added.

In 2016, when lawyers and teachers from the Anglophone regions in the west protested against alleged discrimination by the predominantly French-speaking government, Biya was absent—even as security forces opened fire on the protesters. The crackdown escalated into a war in 2017 between separatist groups and the Cameroonian government, which is still continuing.

Biya’s absences have only become more pronounced, with most citizens having to rely on rare, televised addresses to see him.

A political battle in the making?

With the president’s increased absences, some in the country are anxious about a possible conflict between factions of the country’s political elite who are looking to rule in a post-Biya Cameroon.

Although Cameroon has a multi-party system, and there are periodic general elections, Biya’s ruling Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement (CPDM) has always swept the polls and dominated the government.

But Biya is not known to have groomed anyone in particular as a possible successor. There are strong speculations that his son Franck Biya, might be the favoured candidate, but the son is known to keep a low profile, revealing little about any political ambitions. Last October, the 53-year-old visited the site of a landslide that killed 30 people in Yaounde – although he occupies no official position. He did not speak to the press during the visit, adding another layer of confusion.

Opposition parties have spoken out strongly against a continued Biya dynasty. Meanwhile, local reports suggest that within the ruling CPDM party, leaders have neither endorsed nor spoken out against a potential Biya junior candidacy. Some officials of the party and its many smaller allied parties, have ‘urged’ Biya senior to run again for another term.

“Cameroon is an opaque cesspool where even the key players are unable to articulate the ‘big picture’ manoeuvres that they’re ensnared in,” democracy activist Ndongmo said, adding that there’s already a “civil war” within the regime over succession.

“The scheming is relentless, with camps changing by the day. The post-Biya era will not be pretty if a faction doesn’t doesn’t end up being a clear winner by then,” she said.