The relationship between the Ethiopian Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed Ali, and the newly reelected president of the Federal Government of Somalia on May 15th, 2022, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud got to a rocky start from the get-go.
On May 16th, 2022, a day after the recent election in Somalia, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, TPLF leaders, who were at war with PM Abiy’s regime at the time, celebrated the successful reelection of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud.
On that same day, Ethiopia’s PM Abiy Ahmed along with other regional leaders also congratulated the president on his reelection. Even though Prime Minister Ahmed enjoyed close relations with the outgoing president at the time, President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo, many critics believed that the relations between him and the newly elected president would be problematic, at the inauguration ceremony, the Ethiopian premier stated that his government will, “closely cooperate with Somalia on matters [of] development and regional integration.”
In the next few months, President Hassan Shiekh would visit the UAE, Turkey, Kenya, Djibouti, Eritrea, and Egypt opting to avoid Ethiopia in the process. At the time, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed saw this as a sign of hostility towards his government. To make matters worse, President Hassan Sheikh made an official working visit to Egypt in late July of 2022, while postponing an official visit to Adis Ababa. At the Cairo meeting, among the agenda items was the issue of Ethiopia’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) project on the Nile which both Egypt and Sudan saw as a threat to their critical water supplies. This angered Ethiopia.
Before the Egypt visit, there was the cross-border attack by Al-Shabab on July 21st, 2022, Then, after the Egypt trip, there was the appointment of Muktar Roobow in early August. President Hassan’s previous close ties with the TPLF, in his last term as the president of Somalia, were not forgotten by PM Ahmed. This seems to give to add fuel to the fire in an already rocky relationship between the two leaders. Now, PM Ahmed has made his first move.
This came as an old trick in the trade. Ethiopia re-instated its dual-track policy towards Somalia, which treated the periphery and the center equally. To invoke it, Ethiopian intelligence agents secretly flew Southwest State’s president Abdiaziz Laftagareen to Addis Ababa in early August. Laftgareen, who did not appreciate the appointment of Mukhtar Roobow to a cabinet position in the new government, took the opportunity to consult with an old friend. Now, PM Abiy got President Hassan’s attention.
In late September, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud makes an official visit to Addis Ababa. The two leaders have agreed to strengthen the relationship between the two countries, and IGAD has welcomed the agreement between the two leaders.
Two weeks later, Somalia’s Prime Minister, Hamza Abdi Barre attends the 10th Tana High-Level Forum on Security in Africa at Bahir Dar. Things will improve from here on.
In early November, Deputy Director of Ethiopian Security Service, General Sisay Tola meets with Somalia’s spy at the time, Mahad Salad in Mogadishu.
A few days later, President Hassan Sheikh met with Ethiopia’s premier in Sharm El Sheikh on the sidelines of #COP27. Again, they talked about strengthening ties between the two countries.
Perhaps, what came out of that meeting was that the Director of #NISA, Mahad Salad made a quick visit to Addis Ababa a week later, where he visited Ethiopia’s Information Network Security Administration.
The year ended with Somalia’s Police Commissioner General Hijar attending the 24th Eastern Africa Police Chiefs meeting in Addis Ababa.
The relations between the two neighboring countries hit a stride and started on a good note at the start of 2023.
Somalia’s Minister of Transport and Civil Aviation, Fardowsa Egal met with her counterpart, Dagmawit Moges, in Adis Ababa. The two agreed to foster collaboration in tourism, trade, and the transport areas of the two nations.
In late January, the Somali Police Chief sends off 38 police officers to Ethiopia for advanced police training. This was a result of that visit to Adis Ababa the month before. Things are looking better for the countries.
The month ended with the announcement of the Somalia-Frontline States Summit in Mogadishu where Somalia hosted a high-level meeting of Defence Ministers and the Chiefs of Defense Forces of Frontline States of Djibouti, Kenya, and Ethiopia. The meeting paved the way for the heads of state to meet in Mogadishu. The theme of the gathering was to unite against the threat of terrorism in all of East Africa. The outcome of this meeting did not turn out to be as expected because the idea faded away as time passed.
Then, there was the 36th Ordinary Session of The Assembly of the AU in Addis Ababa on February 28th. President Hassan Shiekh Mohamud met with Ethiopia’s Prime Minister on the sidelines of the assembly along with other African leaders as well as the UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. Again the discussion was to work on the relations between the countries.
In mid-March, President Hassan Sheikh received credentials from Ethiopia’s new Ambassador to Somalia, Mukhtar Mohamed Ware.
Then, in early April, President Hassan Sheikh received a delegation from Ethiopia led by the VP of Ethiopia’s ruling Prosperity Party, Aden Ibrahim, and State Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mesganu Arega. The message they carried was to enhance the two countries’ partnership for mutual benefit. The delegation had an open invitation for the President from Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to come to Addis.
Ten days later, President Hassan Sheikh made an official two-day working visit to Ethiopia. At this point, Italy gets involved in improving the relations between the two countries. A trilateral meeting between Somalia, Italy, and Ethiopia took place in Adis Ababa. The discussions were about strengthening partnerships and investment in infrastructure development.
The two countries seem to be working together in matters of security as a new batch of Somali National Armed Forces completed military training in Ethiopia at the end of April.
In May, June, July, and August things got quiet.
However, in September the relations between the countries got a shot in the arm. On September 7th, 2023 Somalia’s Deputy PM, Salah Jama, and his Ethiopian counterpart Demeke Mekonnen Hassen co-chaired the first-ever Somalia-Ethiopia Joint Ministerial Commission meeting in Mogadishu. The joint commission signed an MoU between the countries to scale up their bilateral cooperation through trade.
Later on that month, PM Hamza Abdi Barre met with Ethiopia’s Deputy PM on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York and they discussed advancing ties between the nations and deepening cooperation.
In early October, Somalia’s new Ambassador to Ethiopia, Abdullahi Warfa submitted his credentials to Ethiopia’s President Sahle Work Zewde at the Presidential Palace in Addis Ababa.
On December 7th, a week after the UN Security Council lifted the arms embargo on Somalia, the country’s Defence Minister, Abdulkadir M. Nur, and his Ethiopian counterpart, Abraham Belay signed an MoU on the Renewal of Defence Cooperation Agreement of February 2014. The agreement established Joint Defence Committees to promote, coordinate, and facilitate the implementation of the prior MoU of 2014 between the two nations.
At this level of cooperation between the nations, what could go wrong? Let us go to New York and do a victory lap! Our neighbor will be proud of us! Or so they said!
During the Somalia Security Conference in New York, on December 12, 2023, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud bragged about Somalia’s recent successes, including but not limited to the lifting of the arms embargo, the debt relief under the HIPC, the joining of the EAC, the progress made against the fight against Al-Shabab, and preparation of the country’s constitutional review.
It is noteworthy, that the debt forgiveness alone was enough to brag about if you are Somalia. It made Somalia an almost debt-free country with less than a billion US dollars in debt. In contrast, in that same month, Ethiopia defaulted on its international bond and the country became the third African country to default on its debt after missing an interest payment of only $33 million.
At the end of the year 2022, Ethiopia’s public debt reached $59 billion.
At this point, things are going well for Somalia at least on paper. The international community is embracing the country’s commitment to fiscal responsibility and the efforts of the Somali Federal Government made to stay the course toward debt relief under the leadership of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud.
At this point, nothing can stop President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and his government who has been in charge of the country for over a year and a half and has achieved so much. This feels like a chess game! It is debatable that the engagement of Somaliland was a fatal mistake for President Hassan while he was ahead in the game of political chess.
The Special Presidential Envoy for Somaliland said at a ceremony in Mogadishu in late October that the priority of the country was to defeat Al-Shabab and the second priority was to unite the nation. He said that the issue of Somaliland was an obstacle to state-building and constitutional reforms.
A date was set, December 28, 2023 for a high-level meeting between Somalia and Somaliland. After two days of talks, the parties agreed to outline the roadmap for key issues in the talks and nominate a technical committee within 30 days. Even though this was the 14th of such meetings between the FGS and Somaliland, in the backdrop of recent successes of Somalia’s government, it seemed possible that it could finally work. What could go wrong?
Out of the blue, on January 1st, 2024, Ethiopia and Somaliland stroke a deal of epic proportions. The infamous Memorandum of Understanding between Ethiopia’s Prime Minister and Somaliland President Muse Bihi was signed. The deal granted Ethiopia access to the sea, a 50-year lease of 20km for a navy base at the Gulf of Aden, and in return, Ethiopia would recognize Somaliland as a sovereign nation.
This came in less than a month when Somalia signed an MoU on defense pack with Ethiopia and when Ethiopia signed an illegal MoU with one of the regions of Somalia.
By doing so, PM Abiy tarnished the relationships he worked so hard for with Somalia before the MoU, and in the process, he created a crisis in the region. He simply reinvoked Ethiopia’s dual-track policy on steroids.
Nevertheless, one has to look at the recent history of the two leaders before the events that led to the massive severance of relations between them and what might have led to the conflict.
Although, envy and jealousy can not be ruled out as a root cause of this conflict, let us look at the evidence itself.
Ethiopia is in decline in terms of economy, internal security, and standing with the West, Somalia, on the other hand, is coming out of a long war that led to it being a failed nation. It seems to be winning a war with a global terror group and it is getting close to repairing the fragmentation of its society. While Ethiopia is seen by many analysts to be on the brink of collapse with Fano rebels on the outskirts of its capital, Somalia is seen as a country emerging from the ruins of its recent past turmoil.
On one side, Somalia has vast marine resources with a 20 million population, while on the other hand, Ethiopia is a landlocked country with a population of over 130 million.
Lastly, the MoU signed between Ethiopia and Somaliland was the last kick of a dying horse. It is safe to say that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed could not watch his country slide into a decline, while his neighbors are on a long recovery road.
The MoU does not make sense because Ethiopia is a cash-strapped country on the brink of a financial collapse due to the ongoing war with itself and its poor economy. There is no way it could pay for a naval base in the Gulf of Aden.
This was simply a personal vendetta against Somalia and its current leadership to unleash mayhem in the fragile political system in Somalia.
The Ethiopian leader fired the first shot in the battle of regional rivalry while President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud chose to go on the defensive. As it stands, the response from Somalia was mediocre at best. For example, Ethiopian Airlines still flies daily to Mogadishu, ENDF is still part of the security apparatus in Somalia, and the movement of people between the two neighborly countries is undisturbed.
In the meantime, things are looking bleak for President Hassan Sheikh when it comes to uniting the country. The issues surrounding the constitutional review and the election process are becoming problematic. Those who stand in the way are labeled as working for the Ethiopian regime. Is this the trap PM Ahmed wanted for his rival?
Despite all of this, the question remains, will President Hassan Sheikh fire back? Will he unite the country while keeping Abiy’s ambitions at bay? Only time will tell!