The election of Prabowo Subianto as Indonesia’s next president marks a significant turning point in the country’s foreign policy. With a nationalist and militaristic background, Prabowo is expected to present a personalized diplomacy in contrast to President Joko Widodo’s approach. During his tenure as Minister of Defense in President Jokowi’s cabinet, Prabowo demonstrated his direct involvement in various international issues, such as his strong criticism of the West over palm oil export restrictions and the peace proposal he put forward for the Russia-Ukraine war. Prabowo’s victory in the 2024 election has attracted international attention, sparking much speculation about how his leadership will impact Indonesia’s diplomatic posture amidst rising global tensions.

Current Foreign Policy Landscape

President Jokowi’s leadership has shaped Indonesia’s foreign policy with a character defined by pragmatism, prioritizing domestic issues such as economic development and infrastructure over international relations. Relying more on his cabinet members for foreign affairs, Jokowi preferred a less prominent approach when dealing with complex international issues. Although he actively participated in international forums like ASEAN, Jokowi primarily focused on economic diplomacy, which was built through trade relations and economic cooperation.

Despite this inward focus, Jokowi’s leadership faced rising geopolitical tensions. However, his administration tended to avoid bold decisions. One example is Jokowi’s hesitation and reluctance regarding the South China Sea conflict, where China’s territorial claims overlap with those of ASEAN countries, including Indonesia in the Natuna Sea. As a member of ASEAN, Indonesia sought to secure its economic interests with China while balancing its regional commitments. This cautious stance was also evident in Jokowi’s efforts to maintain neutrality amid the rivalry between the United States and Russia. Although considered successful in fostering economic growth and aligned with Indonesia’s free and active principles, many critics argue that under Jokowi’s leadership, Indonesia has been “punching below its weight” in regional and international affairs.

Potential Policy Shifts

Prabowo’s leadership, set to begin in October, is predicted to bring a more assertive and strategic approach in addressing global dynamics. Prabowo seems ambitious about strengthening Indonesia’s position through direct engagement at the leadership level, rather than relying on institutional approaches. His diplomatic style is believed to have the potential to enhance Indonesia’s role on the international stage, particularly with the direct involvement of the leader in key issues. However, this approach also raises concerns and criticisms. Diplomacy dominated by individual leadership tends to create uncertainty, which could undermine the effectiveness of policies. In facing global challenges, Prabowo’s personalized approach may negatively impact the progress of Indonesia’s diplomatic relations if it neglects the institutional structures that are essential for maintaining the consistency of Indonesia’s foreign policy.

A concrete example of these concerns emerged when Prabowo proposed a peace plan for the Russia-Ukraine war by suggesting the establishment of a demilitarized zone (DMZ) 15 km from the disputed areas. Prabowo’s proposal, presented at the 2023 Shangri-La Dialogue, sparked outrage from various parties, as it was an addition that had not been consulted with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs or policy experts beforehand. Prabowo’s peace proposal was inconsistent with Indonesia’s principle of non-alignment. By proposing the creation of a DMZ, Prabowo indirectly legitimized Russia’s occupation of Ukrainian territory. Indonesia’s attempt to maintain balanced relations with both the U.S. and Russia has now raised questions about its credibility as a neutral actor, given that the peace proposal appeared to favor Russia’s interests.

Prabowo’s involvement is not limited to diplomacy. On April 26, The Economist published an article written by Prabowo titled “Indonesia’s president-elect accuses the West of double standards.” In the article, Prabowo sharply criticized the West for what he sees as a double standard in handling the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Palestine conflicts. He pointed out the disparity in treatment, highlighting how the suffering of Palestinian victims is often overlooked, while the victims of the war in Ukraine seem to receive more attention from Western countries. As the president-elect, Prabowo’s critique signals a significant shift in Indonesia’s foreign policy direction. However, the question remains: Does Prabowo’s strong stance suggest a bias in his future policies?

To address this question, Dr. Dafri Agus Salim, an expert in International Relations, explained that from Prabowo’s list of visits, he appears to show more interest in building relationships with Eastern countries. Prabowo’s visits to Turkey, China, and Russia indicate a potential focus on creating opportunities for Indonesia in trade and economic cooperation. On one hand, Dafri views this as an effort by Prabowo to position Indonesia as an actor capable of mobilizing Eastern powers. This shift in political orientation, which seems to lean toward the East, will likely have a significant impact on Indonesia’s relations with Western countries that hold opposing interests. By strengthening its ties with Eastern powers, Indonesia aims to enhance its position in the face of pressure from the West, which often undermines Indonesia’s standing and interests.

Uncertainties and Speculations

The uncertainty surrounding Prabowo’s foreign policy direction has raised concerns both domestically and internationally. Prabowo’s assertive preferences and his tendency to make unilateral decisions without consulting his advisors, as seen in his Russia-Ukraine peace proposal, have sparked worries about how he will handle complex international issues that require careful diplomacy and multilateral cooperation. Often overlooking his role as Indonesia’s representative on the global stage, Prabowo tends to issue statements based on inconsistent personal paradigms, which could affect his leadership, particularly in navigating global challenges.

Prabowo’s growing alignment with Eastern powers is likely to prompt careful reactions from major players like the United States. As one of the world’s largest democracies, Indonesia has traditionally played a key role as a stabilizer, consistently promoting consensus-building and peaceful conflict resolution. However, Prabowo is expected to take a more aggressive and assertive stance, which could complicate Indonesia’s relationships with other nations.

Facing increasing global pressure, Prabowo’s foreign policy will be shaped by a delicate balance between national interests, regional stability, and global expectations. His leadership style, marked by personal involvement and bold initiatives, has the potential to elevate Indonesia’s role on the global stage, but it also risks creating instability in its foreign relations.

Policy Recommendations

Given the uncertainty surrounding Indonesia’s foreign policy direction and the emerging geopolitical challenges, it is crucial for Indonesia to maintain a strong institutional framework in foreign policy decision-making. Strengthening the role of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and other diplomatic institutions will be essential in preserving Indonesia’s credibility and consistency in international relations. By balancing Prabowo’s assertive leadership style with institutional diplomacy, Indonesia can ensure that personal leadership does not overshadow long-term national interests. Prabowo’s direct involvement in international issues can undoubtedly enhance Indonesia’s influence at both the global and regional levels, but it should be aligned with institutional processes to safeguard the country’s strategic objectives.