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(Bloomberg) — Tunisians vote Sunday in an election that will likely be the death knell of the Arab Spring born in the North African country more than a decade ago, and cement a partnership with Italy’s Giorgia Meloni that’s caused illicit migration to Europe to plummet.

President Kais Saied has spent five years consolidating power and is accused of crushing the opposition, jailing critics and demonizing Black migrants — all while enjoying the support of Meloni and other anti-immigration European leaders. His near-certain victory may signal more economic hardship for ordinary Tunisians already struggling with rampant unemployment, frequent food shortages and high living costs, but advance the European Union’s migration goals in North Africa.

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Meloni and Saied share a fixation with tackling irregular migration — one of the issues that catapulted her to power in 2022 — and the pair signed a controversial deal to police crossing attempts last year. 

The agreement, along with similar pacts with other North African countries, has helped drive arrivals by sea down 60% year-on-year to just over 50,000 so far in 2024, according to Italy’s interior ministry. The Italian leader has dismissed widespread allegations of human-rights abuses in partner nations.

Meloni, who has visited Tunis four times since taking office, is now trying to export the partnership to the broader EU and expand it to include a €5 billion ($5.5 billion) energy and food security investment plan in Africa aimed at stemming illicit migration, according to people with knowledge of diplomatic efforts. While Tunisia and the EU signed a broad treaty last year, it still hasn’t been implemented.

Given attempts to stem migration in West Africa’s Sahel have faltered, many European officials view North Africa as “the last line of defense,” said Riccardo Fabiani, North Africa project director at the International Crisis Group.

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Saied, an independent who beat Tunisia’s political elite to become the surprise winner of 2019 elections, cuts an unlikely figure for a populist. Austere and unsmiling, he’s prone to citing long-dead political theorists in discussions. One of Saied’s few concessions to the social-media age comes via semi-regular videos on Facebook in which he delivers verbal tirades about corruption and foreign conspiracies.

The worry among European officials is that Saeid’s unpredictability and likely negative reaction to any EU criticism of the election’s conduct could derail or delay the agreement, one person familiar with their thinking said.

Little would stop Saied, for example, “from resuming sending migrants through the Med and claiming Europe can’t use the country as its dépendance,” Fabiani added. “He’s an unpredictable leader.”

Authoritarian Streak

Saied has looked beyond Europe for friendships, building ties with China and Iran. And his cozy relationship with Italy has developed even as he struck an increasingly authoritarian tone at home and presided over a stumbling economy. 

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His rejection of what he called “diktats” from the International Monetary Fund raised alarm among bondholders over how Tunisia will honor its debt-servicing needs, which are set to hit a record this year of about 41% of government expenditure.

“The economy is collapsing” and may well worsen to the scale of Lebanon’s economic crisis, said Tarek Megerisi, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. 

Foreign reserves are chronically low and the government’s reliance on the domestic debt market to patch up public finances is stymieing growth and may put pressure on the local currency’s value.

Saied, 66, has defended his economic management and denied accusations he’s crushing a nascent democracy by neutering the judiciary. Tunisia, where a long-time autocrat was ousted in 2011, kickstarted a wave of pro-democracy protests in the Arab world that were rolled back years ago.

“As General De Gaulle once said, I can’t at this age start a career as a dictator,” he told reporters in 2022.

Challenger Jailed

Authorities have already jailed one of this two electoral challengers — chemical engineer Ayachi Zammel — while the other is an ally. 

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“Saied can be sure that most Tunisians will stay at home, because they can’t see a credible alternative to the president, while his hardcore supporters will turn out to renew his mandate,” said Fabiani.

Citing the need to save the country from chaos, Saied used legal precepts to seize greater prerogatives in July 2021 — declaring a state of emergency that endowed the president with all of the state’s power as he tries to create what he calls a “new republic.”

More than three years later, Tunisia is going through an “authoritarian drift” as the state of emergency imposed since 2021 “became a permanent style of rule,” said Sghaier Zakraoui, a law professor at Tunis University.

Sunday’s vote is important for Saied to show both internally and externally “that his project remains popular and the people are still with him,” ICG’s Fabiani said. 

But most Tunisians, particularly the country’s many young people, are disillusioned, said Megerisi.

“Nihilism prevails among Tunisian youths,” he said. “They are short of options: they have tried a revolution and it didn’t work out. Tunisians are mostly looking to leave.”

—With assistance from Julius Domoney.

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