Dodgers Dugout: Here’s why the Dodgers will beat the Padres

Sports Desk

3 months ago

Occasional Digest - a story for you

Hi, and welcome to another edition of Dodgers Dugout. My name is Houston Mitchell. This is the moment we’ve all been waiting for.

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The Dodgers are playing the San Diego Padres in the best-of-five National League Division Series, which begins Saturday at Dodger Stadium. It was the least-hoped-for matchup in a survey of newsletter readers, but here it is anyway.

Before we look at the teams, let me get on my soapbox for a moment. I’ve received a lot of emails from nervous Dodger fans, and from pessimistic Dodger fans, who say the Dodgers can’t possibly win. That the Padres are the hot team and the Dodgers are doomed to another NLDS exit because of that and their shaky starting pitching. And you know what, they may be right. I don’t know who’s going to win. Neither do you. That’s why they play the games. The Dodgers are favored to win the World Series, and simulation sites now give them an 18% chance to win it all, which is another way of saying they have an 82% chance of not winning it all.

The odds are stacked against any team to win the World Series. With 12 teams in the postseason, anything can happen, as we saw in the AL wild-card round, when Detroit and Kansas City defeated the favored Houston (no relation) and Baltimore. (And wasn’t it nice to see the Houston Asterisks get swept?)

Here’s what you have to keep in mind. Anything can happen. The Dodgers can beat the Padres, in fact they just beat them twice in three games in the last week of the season. Yes, the Padres won the season series, but the Mets beat the Dodgers 10 of 11 times in 1988, and look what happened in that NLCS.

So, try to relax and enjoy the games. It’s not worth an ulcer. Be disappointed if they lose, but if you are angry, then it’s time to find a new hobby. There are people on the East Coast literally digging their belongings out from mud and water who wish they could get mad over a baseball game. Keep it in perspective.

Now, before I get angry emails, let me say I’m not telling you how to be a fan. It’s just some words of advice from a person who has seen them lose in the postseason far more than they’ve won. Like in 1974, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1985, 1995, 1996, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2021, 2022 and 2023. The world kept moving along after all those losses, and it will again this year, win or lose.

The Padres?

Yes, the Padres, who are rapidly moving up the list of the Dodgers’ biggest rivals, settling in at No. 2 (with a bullet) behind the Giants. By the way, the Padres are doing that cute thing they do every year, preventing people who don’t have a San Diego ZIP Code from buying tickets to postseason games at Petco Park.

Let’s do a position by position comparison.

Catcher

Will Smith, .248/.327/.433, 20 homers, 75 RBIs, 116 OPS+, 3.5 WAR
Kyle Higashioka, .220/.263/.476, 17 homers,, 45 RBIs, 101 OPS+. 1.4 WAR

Smith fell into a lengthy slump about midway through the season but seemed to be coming out of it the last couple of weeks. Higashioka, who went to Edison High in Huntington Beach, had a bad September, hitting .174, but played well enough earlier in the season to take the starting job from Luis Campusano.

Edge: Dodgers

First base
Freddie Freeman, .282/.378/.476, 22 homers, 89 RBIs, 143 OPS+, 4.7 WAR
Donovan Solano, .286/.343/.417, 8 homers, 35 RBIs, 112 OPS+, 0.9 WAR

The season-ending injury to Ha-Seong Kim caused the Padres to move some pieces around, and Solano landed at first. The big question is how Freeman’s ankle is doing. That could be the key to the series. Max Muncy was taking ground balls at first base during Thursday’s workout.

Edge: Dodgers

Second base
Gavin Lux, .251/.320/.383, 10 homers, 50 RBIs, 101 OPS+, 2.1 WAR
Jake Cronenworth, .241/.324/.390, 17 homers,, 83 RBIs, 99 OPS+, 2.0 WAR

Lux got off to a horrific start this year before hitting .304 with power after the All-Star break. Cronenworth did the opposite, tailing off to a .215 average after the break.

Edge: Dodgers

Third base
Max Muncy, .232/.358/.494, 15 homers, 48 RBIs, 141 OPS+, 3.0 WAR
Manny Machado, .275/.325/.472, 29 homers, 105 RBIs, 120 OPS+, 3.2 WAR

This is an example of why you can’t judge by just batting average. Muncy was out hit by 43 points but had a higher OB% and SLG%. However, Machado is better defensively, which gives the Padres the advantage here, but it’s not as gigantic as you might think. If Freeman can’t play, then Muncy probably moves to first and Kiké Hernández plays third, giving the Padres a bigger edge.

Edge: Padres

Shortstop
Miguel Rojas, .283/.337/.410, 6 homers, 36 RBIs, 113 OPS+, 3.4 WAR
Xander Bogaerts, .264/.307/.381, 11 homers, 44 RBIs, 92 OPS+, 1.2 WAR

Rojas has been an unsung hero for the Dodgers this season and has excelled at the plate and with the glove. Bogaerts moved from second to short and is not nearly the defender Rojas is. If Rojas can’t play, Tommy Edman will start for the Dodgers, and he’s better too.

Edge: Dodgers

Left field
Teoscar Hernández, .272/.339/.501, 33 homers, 99 RBIs, 137 OPS+, 4.3 WAR
Jurickson Profar, .280/.380/.459, 24 homers, 85 RBIs, 134 OPS+, 3.7 WAR

Hernández has more power, but Profar makes more contact and gets on base more often. They both can be emotional spark plugs for the team and rise to the big moments.

Edge: Even

Center field
Tommy Edman, .237/.294/.417, 6 homers, 20 RBIs, 101 OPS+, 0.9 WAR
Jackson Merrill, .292/.326/.500, 24 homers, 90 RBIs, 127 OPS+. 4.4 WAR

After not playing all year and being acquired at the trade deadline, Edman filled the old Chris Taylor role very well. But Merrill would be rookie of the year if not for a guy named Paul Skenes and could be the guy who kills the Dodgers.

Edge: Padres

Right field
Mookie Betts, .289/.372/.491, 19 homers, 75 RBIs, 145 OPS+, 4.8 WAR
Fernando Tatis Jr., .276/.340/.492, 21 homers, 49 RBIs, 130 OPS+, 2.6 WAR

Two great players. It seems strange to give anyone an edge here because neither team is disadvantaged in right. Still, Betts is a little bit better, as long as he doesn’t disappear like last postseason.

Advantage: Dodgers

Designated hitter
Shohei Ohtani, .310/.390/.646, 54 homers, 130 RBIs, 190 OPS+, 9.2 WAR
Luis Arraez, .314/.346/.392, 4 homers, 46 RBIs, 106 OPS+, 1.1 WAR

They finished first and second in batting average, but they couldn’t be more different. Arraez is an old-school hitter who will choke up on the bat and find holes in the offense, winning three straight batting titles. Ohtani is, well, do I really need to go into detail? This will be his first postseason. He has risen to the key moments during the regular season. Will he do it again? I say yes. The whole postseason for the Dodgers could ride on it.

Edge: Dodgers

Starting pitching

Dodgers
Jack Flaherty, 6-2, 3.58 ERA
Yoshinobu Yamamoto, 7-2, 3.00 ERA
Walker Buehler, 1-6, 5.38 ERA
Landon Knack, 3-5, 3.65 ERA

Padres
Michael King, 13-9, 2.95 ERA
Dylan Cease, 14-11, 3.47 ERA
Joe Musgrove, 6-5, 3.88 ERA
Yu Darvish, 7-3, 3.31 ERA

A monkey wrench was thrown into the Padres’ plans when Joe Musgrove left his wild-card game start with a tight elbow. Some Dodger fans were celebrating that, but you should never celebrate an injury. You always want to be a team at their best, and Musgrove is a very good pitcher. The rotation has been shaky for the Dodgers all season, and been a strong point for the Padres. Even with Musgrove out …

Edge: Padres

Bullpen

Dodgers
Evan Phillips, 5-1, 3.62 ERA, 18 saves
Alex Vesia, 5-4, 1.76 ERA, 5 saves
Daniel Hudson, 6-2, 3.00 ERA, 10 saves
Blake Treinen, 7-3, 1.93 ERA, 1 save
Michael Kopech, 4-0, 1.13 ERA, 6 saves

Padres
Robert Suarez, 9-3, 2.77 ERA, 36 saves
Adrián Morejón, 3-2, 2.83 ERA, 2 saves
Tanner Scott, 3-1, 2.73 ERA, 4 saves
Jason Adam, 3-0, 1.01 ERA, 0 saves
Bryan Hoeing, 1-1, 1.52 ERA, 0 saves

The relievers listed are the ones who will probably see the bulk of the stressful innings. The Padres acquired Scott, Adam and Hoeing at the deadline. They have been more consistent than the Dodgers’ main relievers. Suarez had a tough September, but pitched two scoreless innings during the wild-card round.

Edge: Padres

Bench
Dodgers
Austin Barnes
Kiké Hernández
Chris Taylor
Andy Pages
Kevin Kiermaier

Padres
Elías Díaz
Nick Ahmed
Tyler Wade
Brandon Lockridge
David Peralta

The Dodgers will have to decide whether to take 13 pitchers to the NLDS and drop Kiermaier, or take 12 pitchers and keep him. Two former Dodgers on the Padres bench in Ahmed and Peralta.

Edge: Dodgers

The Dodgers have the edge in seven categories, the Padres four, with one even. If only it were that simple. This is going to be a hard-fought series, and the Padres have the edge in a very important category: pitching. The Dodgers will need strong efforts from Flaherty and Yamamoto and will probably need their offense to score about five runs a game. Can they do it? Yes. Will it be easy? No. But the hard is what makes it great.

The Dodgers have played this season with more passion and intensity than in other seasons. Despite all the obstacles, they finished with 98 wins and the best record in baseball. They have guys on the team who don’t shrink from the big moments. For this round at least, I think that will be enough to carry them through.

The other thing it keep in mind: Winning teams usually have at least one unexpected player step up to help win a series. Think Brian Doyle (Brian Doyle? How old is the guy writing this newsletter), Scott Brosius, Mickey Hatcher, David Freese. Who will that be on the Dodgers?

Whatever happens, we’ll be back Monday to discuss the first two games.

Prediction: Dodgers in five.

Yamamoto to pitch Game 1

The Dodgers originally announced that Flaherty would start Game 1, but Thursday they switched to Yamamoto. Why? This will give Yamamoto five days off so he would be available to pitch Game 5 on his normal rest. Flaherty, pitching Game 2, would also be available for Game 5.

“It’s much more about if there’s a Game 5,” Andrew Friedman said. “Yoshi hasn’t pitched on regular [four days’ rest]. Jack is more accustomed to it. Depending on our bullpen usage throughout [the series], it allows us that flexibility in Game 5 if there is one.”

Fernando Valenzuela update

Fernando Valenzuela was not in the broadcast booth for the Dodgers’ last home stand, nor will he return for the postseason. He has stepped away to focus on his health, the Dodgers announced this week. He has reportedly been hospitalized.

“He and his family truly appreciate the love and support of fans as he aims to return for the 2025 season, and they have asked for privacy during this time,” the team announced.

Best wishes to Fernando and his family.

Dodgers’ NLDS schedule

Saturday: San Diego (Dylan Cease, 14-11, 3.47 ERA) at Dodgers (Yoshinobu Yamamoto, 7-2, 3.00 ERA) 5:38 p.m, FS1
Sunday: San Diego (Yu Darvish, 7-3, 3.31 ERA) at Dodgers (Jack Flaherty, 13-7, 3.17 ERA), 5:08 p.m., FS1
Tuesday: Dodgers (TBD) at San Ddiego (TBD), TBD, Fox or FS1
*Wed.: Dodgers (TBD) at San Diego (TBD), TBD, Fox or FS1
*Friday: San Diego (TBD) at Dodgers (TBD), TBD, Fox or FS1

*-if necessary

Joe Davis and John Smoltz will be the announcers for this NLDS