As Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) prepares for its upcoming elections, the region is experiencing both heightened political tensions and a resurgence of militancy that has left Indian military and intelligence agencies grappling with new challenges. Despite the abrogation of Article 370 of the Indian Constitution in 2019, which ended J&K’s special status, the Indian government’s efforts to integrate the region into the broader national framework have not quelled unrest. On the contrary, the combination of political subjugation, economic initiatives, and militarized governance has contributed to a complex and deteriorating security environment.
In the wake of Article 370’s abrogation, the Indian government anticipated that increased economic investments and administrative control would lead to stability and peace in J&K. Instead, the situation on the ground tells a different story. There has been a noticeable uptick in militancy, with insurgent groups reorganizing and intensifying their operations. According to reports, intelligence agencies were unprepared for the magnitude of this renewed militancy, which has manifested in targeted killings, skirmishes with security forces, and attacks on political leaders and migrant workers.
This new wave of militancy differs from previous insurgencies in its organization, tactics, and reach. Smaller, more decentralized militant groups have formed, with a greater emphasis on local recruitment, which contrasts with the Pakistan-backed militancy of the 1990s and early 2000s. The involvement of younger Kashmiris, who are often disillusioned by the absence of political autonomy and legal rights, has given rise to a grassroots insurgency that can be harder to suppress. The Indian military’s previous strategies of cordon-and-search operations, night raids, and intelligence-driven encounters have proven insufficient to contain this new, adaptive insurgency.
For the Indian intelligence apparatus, the resurgence of militancy has been particularly alarming. Despite extensive surveillance networks and a large deployment of security forces, the capacity of militant groups to regroup suggests a significant misreading of the security situation in the region. Many militants are now using technology and social media platforms to evade detection, recruit youth, and plan operations, creating a layer of sophistication that complicates counter-insurgency measures.
One of the critical factors contributing to the renewed militancy is the abrogation of political and legal rights in Kashmir. Since 2019, local political leadership has been systematically sidelined, with major parties such as the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference (NC) and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) rendered largely irrelevant. Political engagement has been reduced to a process controlled by the central government, and public dissent is regularly quelled with draconian measures, including mass detentions under the Public Safety Act (PSA).
The absence of meaningful political representation fuels resentment among Kashmiris. The government’s narrative of development and progress through investments in infrastructure, healthcare, and education is seen as a superficial band-aid that ignores the deeper aspirations for self-determination and autonomy. Kashmiris feel that their political voice has been stifled, and the elections, while ostensibly a democratic exercise, are viewed by many as illegitimate and orchestrated by the central government to project an image of normalcy to the world. Moreover, the legal system in Kashmir has been increasingly used as a tool of repression. The imposition of restrictions on internet access, curbs on free speech, and the detention of political leaders without trial have created an environment where basic human rights are regularly violated. This has only exacerbated the alienation felt by the local population, who see the Indian state as an occupying force rather than a legitimate authority.
Since the abrogation of Article 370, New Delhi has funneled significant resources into development projects in J&K. Billions of rupees have been allocated to improve infrastructure, tourism, education, and healthcare, with the aim of integrating Kashmir economically and creating a narrative of progress. However, the reality on the ground reveals that these investments have done little to win the hearts and minds of the local population. Kashmiris remain skeptical of these economic initiatives, which they perceive as attempts to dilute their cultural identity and demography.
The introduction of new land laws that allow outsiders to purchase land in the region has further fueled fears of demographic changes, reinforcing the sentiment that Kashmir is being colonized under the guise of development. Economic development, while necessary, cannot be a substitute for addressing the underlying political grievances that have defined Kashmir’s history for decades. While development projects may create infrastructure, they do not resolve the deep-seated political and emotional disconnect between the local population and the Indian state. It is where the Indian political elite has totally gone bonkers with no tangible understanding of the local realities.
The Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) approach to Kashmir has been characterized by a mix of high-handedness and political centralization. The abrogation of Article 370 was celebrated by the BJP as a decisive move to bring Kashmir into the national fold. The BJP’s refusal to engage with local political parties and its focus on militarizing the region have created a sense of siege, rather than integration. This misreading of the security dynamics in Kashmir has been costly. Indian policymakers assumed that the removal of Article 370 would weaken the separatist sentiment, but the reality has been the opposite. The central government’s heavy-handedness has only reinforced the view that Kashmiris are being subjugated rather than empowered.
The upcoming elections, therefore, are likely to be marred by low voter turnout, widespread disillusionment, and a resurgence of violence. For the BJP, the failure to secure a stable and peaceful Kashmir after the abrogation of Article 370 will haunt its legacy for years to come. The party’s inability to win over the Kashmiri people, despite its narrative of development and progress, reveals a fundamental flaw in its Kashmir strategy: a failure to recognize that economic investments cannot substitute for political and legal rights.
The elections in Jammu and Kashmir represent a crucial moment in the region’s political trajectory. The resurgence of militancy, combined with the subjugation of political and legal rights, has created a volatile environment that is unlikely to be resolved through development projects alone. For Indian polity, the misreading of the security and political situation in Kashmir will have long-lasting consequences. The abrogation of Article 370 may have been a symbolic victory for the BJP, but it has come at the cost of deepening the divide between Kashmir and the rest of India. As militancy rises and political discontent festers, the upcoming elections in J&K will serve as a litmus test for the future of Indian governance in the region—and perhaps, for the future of the Indian state itself.