The Maldives, an island nation strategically positioned in the Indian Ocean, has recently experienced significant shifts in its foreign policy under President Mohamed Muizzu. This change has been particularly notable in the Maldives’ relationship with India, a long-standing ally. Despite coming to power with a strong anti-India sentiment, Muizzu’s administration has now taken a more pragmatic approach towards New Delhi, reflecting the complexities of balancing national interest with regional diplomacy.

The Rise of Nationalism and the “India Out” Campaign

The political landscape in the Maldives underwent a seismic shift following the presidential election in September 2023, where Mohamed Muizzu ascended to power. His campaign was marked by the nationalist “India Out” slogan, which resonated with a significant portion of the electorate. The slogan was not just a political tool; it was an expression of widespread nationalist sentiment, reflecting concerns about foreign influence, particularly from India, which had maintained a military presence in the Maldives.

Upon assuming office, Muizzu wasted no time in acting on his campaign promises. One of his administration’s first moves was to initiate the withdrawal of Indian military personnel stationed in the Maldives. These forces were primarily involved in operating helicopters and a Dornier aircraft for search and rescue operations. This decision was seen as a clear signal of the new government’s intent to assert Maldivian sovereignty and reduce dependence on India. Muizzu’s government quickly moved to strengthen ties with other regional powers like Turkey and China, raising concerns in New Delhi about the Maldives’ shifting allegiances.

Consolidation of Power and Foreign Policy Recalibration

Muizzu’s political dominance was further solidified in the parliamentary elections held in April 2024, where his party, the People’s National Congress (PNC), secured a supermajority. With over two-thirds of the 93-seat parliament under its control, the PNC was in a strong position to implement its agenda without significant opposition. However, this period also marked the beginning of a noticeable shift in the government’s foreign policy stance.

Despite the initial focus on distancing the Maldives from India, by mid-2024, the Muizzu administration began recalibrating its approach. This change was highlighted during the visit of Indian External Affairs Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar to the Maldives from August 9 to 11, 2024. In a stark departure from the earlier anti-India rhetoric, President Muizzu spoke warmly of the close and historic ties between the Maldives and India. He acknowledged India as one of the Maldives’ closest partners, emphasizing the importance of maintaining and strengthening this relationship in the years to come.

This shift did not go unnoticed by the opposition Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP), which had previously been critical of Muizzu’s stance towards India. The MDP welcomed the “sudden recalibration of the Maldives-India policy,” although it also condemned the earlier actions of the Muizzu administration, which it accused of damaging the Maldives’ foreign and economic outlook. The opposition’s call for a public apology for the “India Out” campaign, however, was rebuffed by Muizzu, who insisted that there had been no fundamental shift in his government’s policy. Instead, he framed the recent developments as a continuation of his commitment to maintaining strong relationships with any country that respects Maldivian sovereignty.

Economic Realities and Strategic Partnerships

The change in the Maldives’ stance towards India can be partly attributed to the economic challenges faced by the country. The Maldives’ economy is heavily reliant on tourism, and any disruption in this sector has immediate and significant repercussions. The decline in tourist arrivals from India—a key source market—following the diplomatic tensions earlier in the year underscored the economic costs of a strained relationship with New Delhi.

By August 2024, tourist arrivals from India had fallen dramatically, from 128,756 the previous year to just 74,985. This sharp decline translated into an estimated revenue loss of $150 million, a significant blow to the Maldives’ economy. In response, the Maldives’ tourism ministry launched the “Welcome India” roadshows in major Indian cities, aimed at wooing Indian tourists back to the Maldivian shores. This effort was seen as part of a broader strategy to repair and strengthen ties with India.

The economic challenges faced by the Maldives were not limited to tourism. The country also had to manage a substantial foreign debt burden, for which it sought financial assistance. Despite initial overtures to other countries, including China, it was India that responded positively to the Maldives’ requests for concessions on debt repayment. This pragmatic need for economic stability likely influenced the Muizzu administration’s decision to adopt a more conciliatory approach towards India.

Strategic Implications and Regional Dynamics

The Maldives’ foreign policy shift under Muizzu has significant implications for the broader regional dynamics in South Asia and the Indian Ocean. India, with its “Neighborhood First” policy, has historically viewed the Maldives as a key partner in ensuring regional security and stability. The Indian Ocean is a critical region for India’s strategic interests, and maintaining strong relations with the Maldives is seen as essential for safeguarding these interests.

During Jaishankar’s visit, several key projects were inaugurated, reflecting the depth of India-Maldives cooperation. These included water and sewerage networks on 28 islands, financed through an $800-million Indian Line of Credit, and several community development projects supported by Indian grant aid. Additionally, the two countries signed Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs) to train 1,000 Maldivian civil servants in India and introduce the Unified Payments Interface (UPI) to the Maldives, further deepening bilateral ties.

India’s investments in the Maldives, both financial and strategic, underscore the importance of the Maldives in India’s regional strategy. By ensuring that the Maldives remains within its sphere of influence, India aims to counterbalance the growing presence of other powers, particularly China, in the Indian Ocean region. The Muizzu administration’s recent actions suggest a recognition of this geopolitical reality, as it seeks to balance its relations with both India and China.

The Future of Maldives-India Relations

The future of Maldives-India relations will likely be shaped by a combination of economic pragmatism and strategic considerations. While the Muizzu administration initially sought to assert its independence by distancing itself from India, the economic realities and the strategic importance of maintaining strong ties with New Delhi have led to a more balanced approach.

The Maldives’ foreign policy under Muizzu may continue to oscillate between asserting sovereignty and engaging with regional powers, but the underlying need for economic stability and regional security will likely keep India as a central partner. The recent recalibration in Maldives’ India policy reflects not just a temporary shift but a broader understanding of the interconnectedness of the Maldives’ economic and strategic interests with those of India.

The Maldives under President Mohamed Muizzu has experienced a significant shift in its foreign policy, particularly in its relationship with India. While initially characterized by a strong anti-India sentiment, the administration has since adopted a more pragmatic approach, driven by economic and strategic considerations. As the Maldives navigates its complex regional environment, its relationship with India will remain a key determinant of its foreign policy direction. The shift in Maldives’ India policy under Muizzu illustrates the delicate balance that small states must maintain in a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape.