Dodgers Dugout: Is this the end for Clayton Kershaw?

Sports Desk

3 months ago

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Hi, and welcome to another edition of Dodgers Dugout. My name is Houston Mitchell. Coming soon to a theatre near you: M. Night Shyamalan‘s “Glass II: The Clayton Kershaw story,”

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There was good news (Dodgers increase their NL West lead. Defeat Arizona three out of four games. Get a good start from Walker Buehler.) and bad news since last we spoke a week ago.

In the opening game against Arizona, Clayton Kershaw walked off the mound in the second inning shadowed by a trainer. At the moment, you’re thinking “shoulder?” but it turned out he has a bone spur on his left big toe, making it impossible for him to push off the mound. It was right after he threw a 67-mph curveball that was clobbered for a home run.

Kershaw was put on the injured list the next day.

Dave Roberts said the team would have a better idea of Kershaw’s potential return date when the swelling in his toe goes down. At last report, he was going to be put in a walking boot, but they are hopeful he could return before the end of the season.

You have to wonder, with all due respect, if he should.

Kershaw missed most of the season after offseason shoulder surgery. He came back and didn’t have his old velocity, getting batters out on guile and moxie rather than speed and strength. For those who have been around as long as us old people, he reminded you of Frank Tanana, once a hard thrower, who had to relearn how to pitch when he hurt his arm and lost his fastball. It took a while for Tanana to learn how to gain command of his newer, slower pitches. It looked like it would take Kershaw a while. For every six-inning, no-runs start there was a five innings, nine hits, five runs start. That led to a 4.50 ERA when he walked off the mound last week.

No one is questioning whether or not Kershaw has the heart or desire to come back and take the ball every fifth day. He always has. Never asked out of a postseason start because of a tired arm. Walked out there last postseason with his shoulder shredded and got lit up. It looked like it could have been the end of his career then. But it wasn’t. He’s the greatest or second-greatest pitcher in Dodger history, a first ballot Hall of Famer who will have his number retired one day.

But his number may be up this season. It may be time to say “Hey, let’s try this again next season.” His body certainly seems to be telling him that. The speed of his pitches were hinting at that.

Will he even come back in time to get enough work in to be ready for the postseason? No one knows. The minor league seasons end soon, so there will be no place to send him for a rehab assignment. They will have to remove sentiment from the equation and do what’s best to win the World Series this year. It won’t be easy, and some of it will depend on when and if Tyler Glasnow and Yoshinobu Yamamoto return.

Kershaw has a player option on his contract for next season. He signed for a base salary of $5 million this season, with the following escalators: $1 million for six starts, $1.5 million for each of starts 7-9, $2 million for 10 starts. Kershaw has made seven starts, meaning he gets $7.5 million this season and his player option for next season is $10 million.

The odds are he comes back next season. A full offseason of rest and rehab could do wonders. The question is, should he come back this season? It’s a difficult decision the Dodgers and Kershaw will have to make.

The postseason rotation

The question that comes in more often than any other: What will the Dodgers’ playoff rotation look like? The answer: Future cloudy, ask again later.

There are two solidly in the rotation right now:

Jack Flaherty
Gavin Stone

Let’s see, “Spahn and Sain and pray for rain.” How about “Flaherty and Stone and pray for cyclone.” No, that doesn’t have the same ring to it, and it’s too destructive.

So, who could Nos. 3 and 4 be?

Buehler pitched himself back into the picture with his outing Tuesday night against the Angels. Glasnow, who at one point was going to be ready as soon as he was eligible to come off the IL (last week) is still not ready. Bobby Miller has an ERA of 7.41 since returning to the Dodgers in mid-August and had trouble with the lowly Angels. Justin Wrobleski gave up 10 runs in his last outing (though to be fair, they did leave him out there to take a pounding in order to protect the bullpen). Landon Knack has a 2.72 ERA in eight starts with the Dodgers, but for some reason they seem to prefer him in the minors. And then there’s Kershaw.

One part of the picture will come into better focus Tuesday, when Yamamoto comes off the IL to start against the Cubs. Of course, even if he’s back at full strength, he’s not used to pitching every fifth day, so how many games can he start in the postseason?

Two of these guys are going to have to emerge and become postseason options. I’d have had Knack up and in the rotation already, but that’s just me (now watch me jinx him and he gets bombed in his next start). Here’s guessing he gets a lot more starts for the 2024 Dodgers when I replay the season in Strat-o-matic or APBA.

With the position player part of the roster set, and the main part of the bullpen relatively set, the rotation is worth keeping an eye on the rest of the way.

The current roster

As of Thursday evening, listed as they are on the official MLB roster page:

Pitchers
*Anthony Banda
Ryan Brasier
Walker Buehler
Jack Flaherty
Michael Grove
Brent Honeywell
Daniel Hudson
Michael Kopech
Bobby Miller
Michael Petersen
Evan Phillips
Gavin Stone
Blake Treinen
*Alex Vesia

*-left-handed

Two-way players
*Shohei Ohtani

Catchers
Austin Barnes
Will Smith

Infielders
Mookie Betts
**Tommy Edman
*Freddie Freeman
Kiké Hernández
*Gavin Lux
*Max Muncy
Miguel Rojas

Outfielders
Teoscar Hernández
*Kevin Kiermaier
Andy Pages
Chris Taylor

*-bats left-handed
**-Switch hitter

Random thoughts

—I do believe the Angels irritated Mookie Betts when they walked Shohei Ohtani to get to him Tuesday night. Betts was more fired up after he hit that three-run homer than he has been in quite a while.

—Chris Taylor is hitting .281 since July 20.

—Gavin Lux is hitting .346 since July 20.

—How some of the Dodgers traded at the deadline or released since then are doing:

Jason Heyward, Houston (no relation), 2 for 11 with a double and two RBIs.

Cavan Biggio is in the minors with San Francisco.

Miguel Vargas is hitting .122/.240/.195 with the Chicago White Sox. He’s 10 for 82.

Nick Ahmed is in the minors with San Diego.

Amed Rosario is hitting .250/.294/.375 with Cincinnati. He is 8 for 32.

James Paxton was 1-1 with a 4.09 ERA in three starts with Boston before going on the IL in mid-August with a calf injury.

Ryan Yarbrough is 1-0 with a 2.20 ERA in 16.1 innings (all in relief) with Toronto.

Yohan Ramirez is in the minors with Boston.

The list of players with at least 40 homers and 40 steals in the same season:

José Canseco, 1988 Oakland, 42 homers, 40 steals, won MVP award
Barry Bonds, 1996 San Francisco, 42 homers, 40 steals, fifth in MVP voting
Álex Rodríguez, 1998 Seattle, 42 homers, 46 steals, ninth in MVP voting
Alfonso Soriano, 2006 Washington, 46 homers, 41 steals, sixth in MVP voting
Ronald Acuña Jr., 2023 Atlanta, 41 homers, 73 steals, won MVP award
Shohei Ohtani, 2024 Dodgers, 44 homers, 46 steals

Of course, as Willie Mays said in 1988 when Canseco became the first to do it, “Heck, if I’d known it was going to be a big deal, I’d have done it every year.”

We’ll take a closer look at the 2024 NL MVP race next time. To whet your appetite (or wet your whistle), here are the current odds, courtesy of betonline.ag:

Ohtani, 1-12
Francisco Lindor, 5-1
Marcell Ozuna, 75-1

The postseason race

A look at how the teams stack up. The division winner plus the next three teams with the better record advance to the postseason:

Division leaders

1. Philadelphia, 84-56
2. Dodgers, 84-56
3. Milwaukee, 81-59

Phillies hold tiebreaker over Dodgers because they won the season series, 5-1.

Wild-card standings

San Diego, 80-62
Arizona, 79-62
NY Mets, 76-64
Atlanta, 76-64, —
Chicago, 72-68, 4 GB
St. Louis, 71-69, 5 GB

The Mets have the tiebreaker over Atlanta because of a better intradivision record.

If the season ended today, the Dodgers and Phillies would get first-round byes. Milwaukee would host the Mets in one best-of-three wild-card round, with the winner advancing to play the Dodgers in the best-of-five division series. San Diego would host Arizona, with the winner advancing to play the Phillies.

Who is your favorite current Dodger?

The mention two weeks ago of Justin Turner probably being the most popular recent Dodgers sent many of you to your emails to tell me otherwise. So, let’s try to figure out who is the most popular current Dodger. I have set up a list of everyone on the current roster, plus selected others on the IL or in the minors. You have to pick the seven you consider your most favorite. You may wonder why I include everyone. Well, I believe that every Dodger is someone’s favorite, so they should be able to vote for that player. When I was a kid, my favorite Dodger for a while was Lance Rautzhan. So, a lot of names on this list. You just have to pick you seven favorite. And again, it’s just current Dodgers for now.

Click here to vote. Thanks!

The last two weeks

How the Dodgers hitters and pitchers have fared the last two weeks (through Wednesday):

Hunter Feduccia, 1 for 2, 1 walk, 1 K
Austin Barnes, 5 for 11, 1 double, 3 RBIs, 1 K
Miguel Rojas, .314/.342/.457, 35 at-bats, 2 doubles, 1 homer, 6 RBIs, 2 walks, 3 K’s
Mookie Betts, .302/.373/.558, 43 at-bats, 2 doubles, 3 homers, 15 RBIs, 6 walks, 6 K’s
Tommy Edman, .289/.313/.333, 45 at-bats, 1 triple, 5 RBIs, 2 walks, 9 K’s
Kiké Hernández, .286/.286/.571, 28 at-bats, 2 double, 2 homers, 4 RBIs, 4 K’s
Shohei Ohtani, .280/.339/.640, 50 at-bats, 1 double, 1 triple, 5 homers, 11 RBIs, 3 walks, 14 K’s
Gavin Lux, .276/.382/.414, 29 at-bats, 4 doubles, 5 walks, 7 K’s
Teoscar Hernández, .273/.347/.523, 44 at-bats, 3 doubles, 1 triple, 2 homers, 6 RBIs, 5 walks, 15 K’s
Freddie Freeman, .257/.290/.600, 35 at-bats, 4 homers, 10 RBIs, 2 walks, 8 K’s
Chris Taylor, .250/.348/.300, 20 at-bats, 1 double, 1 RBI, 3 walks, 5 K’s
Will Smith, .226/.294/.323, 31 at-bats, 1 homer, 5 RBIs, 2 walks, 8 K’s
Andy Pages, 1 for 5, 1 RBI, 1 K
Max Muncy, .179/.343/.250, 28 at-bats, 2 doubles, 1 RBI, 6 walks, 11 K’s
Kevin Kiermaier, 0 for 9, 1 RBI, 5 K’s
Team, .270/.331/.458, 18 doubles, 3 triples, 18 homers, 37 walks, 98 K’s, 5.92 runs per games

Pitching

Blake Treinen, 1-0, 0.00 ERA, 5.1 IP, 3 hits, 1 walk, 6 K’s
Alex Vesia, 0.00 ERA, 3 IP, 2 walks, 4 K’s
Daniel Hudson, 0.00 ERA, 2.2 IP, 1 hit, 2 walks, 3 K’s
Ben Casparius, 1-0, 0.00 ERA, 1 IP,
Evan Phillips, 1.50 ERA, 2 saves, 6 IP, 2 hits, 8 K’s
Michael Kopech, 2-0, 1.50 ERA, 1 save, 6 IP, 3 hits, 3 walks, 7 K’s
Michael Grove, 2.45 ERA, 3.2 IP, 5 hits, 2 K’s
Ryan Brasier, 1-0, 3.00 ERA, 6 IP, 5 hits, 2 K’s
Jack Flaherty, 1-1, 3.09 ERA, 11.2 IP, 11 hits, 5 walks, 12 K’s
Walker Buehler, 3.72 ERA, 9.2 IP, 10 hits, 3 walks, 10 K’s
Gavin Stone, 4.50 ERA, 12 IP, 8 hits, 3 walks, 11 K’s
Anthony Banda, 1-0, 7.20 ERA, 1 save, 5 IP, 9 hits, 4 K’s
Bobby Miller, 1-1, 7.31 ERA, 16 IP, 14 hits, 6 walks, 20 K’s
Brent Honeywell, 9.00 ERA, 3 IP, 2 hits, 3 walks, 3 K’s
Joe Kelly, 0-1, 10.13 ERA, 2.2 IP, 5 hits, 2 walks, 1 K
Clayton Kershaw, 12.00 ERA, 6 IP, 12 hits, 3 walks, 5 K’s
Justin Wrobleski, 0-1, 16.88 ERA, 5.1 IP, 10 hits, 2 walks, 2 K’s
Kiké Hernández, 18.00 ERA, 1 IP, 4 hits
Michael Petersen, 18.00 ERA, 2 IP, 5 hits, 1 walk, 3 K’s
Team, 8-4, 5.50 ERA, 4 saves, 108 IP, 109 hits, 36 walks, 103 K’s