The recent regional elections in Germany’s Thuringia and Saxony have delivered a shock to the political landscape, both domestically and across Europe. The Alternative for Germany (AfD), a far-right party, secured significant victories in both states, a result that many view as a bellwether for the national elections scheduled for next year. These results mark a dramatic shift in the political dynamics within Germany and raise questions about the future stability of the government led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, as well as the broader implications for the European Union.

In both Thuringia and Saxony, the AfD achieved unprecedented success, winning a substantial portion of the vote. In Thuringia, the party won approximately 30% of the vote, placing it ahead of both the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the left-wing parties. In Saxony, the AfD also performed exceptionally well, cementing its position as a leading political force in the region. This electoral outcome is significant because it marks the first time a far-right party has gained such a foothold in Germany’s regional parliaments since the end of World War II.

The success of the AfD can be attributed to several factors, including growing dissatisfaction with the current federal government’s handling of issues such as immigration, economic policy, and security. The recent knife attack in Solingen, for which the Islamic State claimed responsibility, has heightened concerns over immigration and border security, issues that the AfD has been vocal about. Additionally, the AfD has capitalized on a populist platform that blends anti-immigrant sentiment with a critique of the European Union, resonating with voters who feel left behind by mainstream parties.

Apart from the AfD’s strong performance, another surprising development was the emergence of the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) party, a left-wing conservative group. Founded by former Die Linke politician Sahra Wagenknecht, the BSW managed to capture significant support, particularly in Thuringia, where it finished third. The BSW’s platform combines left-leaning economic policies with conservative views on cultural and immigration issues, attracting voters from both the traditional left and right.

Meanwhile, traditional parties such as the Social Democratic Party (SPD), the Greens, and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) suffered losses, reflecting a broader trend of disenchantment with the status quo. The SPD, currently part of the federal coalition government, saw its support erode significantly, raising questions about its ability to maintain a stable coalition in Berlin.

The regional election results are a significant blow to Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition government, which comprises the SPD, the Greens, and the FDP. The coalition has struggled with internal disagreements and declining public support, and these election outcomes will likely exacerbate these challenges. Calls for new federal elections are growing louder, and the prospect of a more fragmented Bundestag is becoming increasingly plausible.

For the SPD and its coalition partners, the results are a stark warning ahead of the 2025 national elections. Should the AfD and BSW continue to gain traction, Germany could face a profound shift in its political landscape, potentially resulting in a coalition that includes more right-leaning or eurosceptic elements. The CDU, which also underperformed in these regional elections, may need to recalibrate its strategy and consider alliances with new or previously shunned parties.

The implications of the German regional elections extend beyond national borders. Germany, as the largest economy and one of the leading political players in the EU, significantly influences the bloc’s direction. A stronger presence of the AfD in Germany’s politics, a party known for its eurosceptic and pro-Russia stance, could complicate Germany’s role in the EU. The AfD’s critical views on the EU, including its call to abolish the euro and reassess Germany’s membership, present a direct challenge to the current trajectory of European integration.

Moreover, the BSW’s emergence with its pro-Russia stance could signal a shift in Germany’s foreign policy if these parties continue to grow in influence. This could lead to a realignment of Germany’s relations with Russia and a more cautious approach to supporting Ukraine amidst the ongoing conflict. Such changes could disrupt the EU’s unified stance against Russian aggression and impact sanctions, defense policies, and broader geopolitical strategies.

The results of the recent regional elections in Thuringia and Saxony are a wake-up call for Germany’s political establishment. The rise of the AfD and the emergence of the BSW underscore a growing disenchantment with traditional parties and a desire for alternative political voices. As Germany approaches its next national elections, the political landscape appears more unpredictable than ever. The outcomes of these regional elections are not just a German concern; they have the potential to reshape EU politics and policies significantly. The coming months will be critical in determining whether these results are a temporary anomaly or the beginning of a more permanent shift in German and European politics.