The National Hurricane Center is tracking three tropical disturbances in the Atlantic though none of them have a strong chance of formation in the next seven days. Image courtesy of National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration.
Sept. 2 (UPI) — During the peak of the hurricane season, the National Hurricane Center is tracking three disturbances in the Atlantic though none has a strong chance of formation in the next seven days.
Two of them are in the Atlantic Ocean and could become depressions within a week, NHC said. The other one is in the Gulf of Mexico near Texas.
The next storm name for the Atlantic will be Francine, the sixth one on the list.
A tropical wave east of the Lesser Antilles has a 40% chance of formation in the next week and could become a depression by early next week, the NHC said in its 2 p.m. update Monday. The chance of formation over 48 hours is 0%.
The agency said the wave, as it moves across the Caribbean Sea, is forecast “to become more conducive for development when the system reaches the western Caribbean Sea and southwestern Gulf of Mexico late this week and over the weekend.”
The second tropical wave is in the far eastern Atlantic, just west of the Cabo Verde Islands and off the west coast of Africa. The chance of formation is 0% over two days and 40% over the next seven days.
The system could produce heavy rain and gusty winds across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands within 48 hours. “A tropical depression could form in a few days while the disturbance moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean,” NHC said.
A broad low-pressure system is in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico near the upper Texas coast with a 0 chance of development through seven days. It is bringing rain and thunderstorms along and off the coasts of Texas and Louisiana, and is expected to move inland early Tuesday.
Development is not expected but heavy rains could cause some flash flooding across portions of the Texas coast during the next day or two, NHC said.
Not a single named tropical storm has developed in the Atlantic basin between Aug. 21 and Sept. 2, the first time in 27 years.
The hurricane season goes from June 1 to Nov. 30.
Surface water temperatures of 80 degrees and above make it the perfect fuel for developing hurricanes.
“Water temperatures and ocean heat content levels remain at near-record levels across the Atlantic, potentially allowing for the rapid intensification of any named storm that forms,” AccuWeather.com hurricane expert Alex DaSilva said.
This year could see 17 to 24 named storms, including eight to 13 hurricanes and four to seven major hurricanes, according to the NOAA.
An average season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes, according to the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration.
The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season was the fourth-most active with 20 named storms forming since 1950. Seven became hurricanes, with three reaching major hurricane strength.
So far this year there have been five named storms.
Most recently, Ernesto formed on Aug, 12. It caused significant flooding U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, and intensified as a Category 2 hurricane before striking Bermuda. Ernesto weakened as a tropical storm as it passed near Canada.
Earlier in August, Debby was a Category 1 storm that made landfall in the Florida Panhandle and then moved through the U.S. Atlantic Coast, causing torrential rain and widespread, record flooding up the eastern seaboard.
Beryl intensified into a Category 5 hurricane, the earliest intensity on record, as it hit Grenada in late June. Beryl’s winds diminished as it passed south of Jamaica and then the Cayman Islands before the Yucatán Peninsula and the Gulf Coast of the United States.
Two tropical storms were in the Gulf of Mexico in June: Cindy and Alberto.