On August 20, 2024, Indonesia and Australia reached a significant milestone in their bilateral defense collaboration. Prabowo Subianto, Indonesia’s Minister of Defense and President-Elect, met with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese at Parliament House in Canberra to finalize negotiations on an upgraded defense agreement. Although the Indonesian government has yet to release specific details about the treaty, the Australian government has indicated that the agreement will facilitate more ambitious joint military exercises, deployments, and maritime security collaborations. The formal signing of this treaty-level agreement is scheduled for August 28, during Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles’ visit to Jakarta. This new agreement aims to strengthen defense cooperation, deepen dialogue, improve interoperability, and advance practical arrangements between the two nations.
This development builds on the longstanding yet evolving relationship between Indonesia and Australia, which has been shaped by their geographical proximity and mutual interests in regional stability. Historically, their defense ties have included cooperation in maritime security, counterterrorism, and regional stability, although not without occasional friction. Past agreements, such as the 2006 Lombok Treaty and the 2012 Defense Cooperation Agreement, laid the groundwork for this deeper military collaboration. The new agreement represents a natural progression of this relationship, addressing contemporary security challenges and reinforcing a rules-based order in the region.
Understanding this shift requires a closer look at the South China Sea, a crucial maritime corridor marked by intense geopolitical competition due to overlapping territorial claims and strategic interests. The sea’s importance is underscored by its vast natural resources and its role as a key trade route. China’s assertive territorial claims and militarization of artificial islands have heightened tensions with Southeast Asian nations and attracted the involvement of external powers like the United States. The disputes in the South China Sea involve multiple claimants, including China, Vietnam, the Philippines, and Malaysia, each asserting rights based on historical claims or the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). Recent developments have seen increased military activities, diplomatic efforts, and occasional confrontations, highlighting the volatile nature of the region.
Against this backdrop, the new defense agreement represents a strategic opportunity for Indonesia to enhance its defense capabilities while adhering to its policy of non-alignment. This approach allows Jakarta to assert its territorial claims and strengthen its defense posture without directly aligning with any major power bloc. The defense pact supports Indonesia’s strategic autonomy and provides a framework for navigating the complex dynamics of the South China Sea, balancing economic engagement with China against security interests.
As Indonesia anticipates a new administration under President-elect Prabowo Subianto, significant shifts in both domestic and foreign policy are on the horizon. Although Prabowo has not yet formally taken office, his previous statements and political inclinations suggest a future marked by a pronounced focus on security. His anticipated presidency, endorsed by outgoing President Joko Widodo, indicates a likely departure from the previous administration’s policies. Prabowo’s direct and populist stance, including expected increases in defense spending and potentially controversial economic measures, signals a more assertive and security-focused foreign policy direction.
Prabowo Subianto’s projected approach to foreign policy suggests a strong emphasis on bolstering Indonesia’s military capabilities and asserting its strategic interests. His background as a former general and his focus on military power imply that defense and sovereignty will be central to his administration’s strategy. This shift could result in increased defense expenditures and a reorientation of Indonesia’s trade and economic policies, potentially impacting its economic relations with China.
The anticipated foreign policy changes under Prabowo could have significant implications. On one hand, his focus on strengthening military capabilities may enhance Indonesia’s ability to navigate regional security challenges and assert its position in the South China Sea. On the other hand, his nationalist tendencies and potential economic policies, such as export bans and domestic incentives, might strain relations with key trading partners and disrupt Indonesia’s economic stability. Moreover, Prabowo’s personalistic approach to diplomacy, characterized by direct presidential engagement, could introduce an element of unpredictability into Indonesia’s foreign policy, complicating interactions with both Western allies and China.
Turning to the broader implications, the new defense cooperation agreement between Indonesia and Australia is poised to influence the South China Sea significantly. For Indonesia, the agreement enhances its strategic position and establishes a framework for closer collaboration with Australia, potentially reinforcing its stance on territorial claims. This alignment with Australia’s strategic interests could affect Indonesia’s diplomatic posture in the South China Sea.
For Australia, the agreement represents a strategic opportunity to deepen its military presence and influence in Southeast Asia. By enhancing cooperation with Indonesia, Australia aims to bolster regional security and adopt a balanced approach in the South China Sea. The agreement allows Australia to operate more flexibly within Indonesian territory, supporting a broader strategy to counter China’s growing assertiveness. This increased engagement might lead to a stronger Australian military presence in the region and a more proactive diplomatic stance.
The implications of this agreement extend beyond bilateral relations, impacting the broader geopolitical landscape. China is likely to view the deepening defense ties between Indonesia and Australia with concern, perceiving it as part of a Western strategy to counter its influence. This perception may lead to heightened tensions and a recalibration of China’s approach to the South China Sea, potentially escalating regional conflicts. ASEAN countries, while supportive of efforts to enhance regional stability, may respond with caution, balancing their relationships with both China and Western powers. The United States is expected to view the agreement positively, as it aligns with its strategic interests in maintaining a free and open Indo-Pacific.
In summary, the Indonesia-Australia defense agreement represents a significant advancement in their bilateral relationship with far-reaching implications for regional security. For both nations, it enhances defense capabilities and solidifies bilateral relations through improved military cooperation. However, the agreement also introduces risks, including potential regional tensions and counteractions from China. The balance between strengthening defense capabilities and managing economic relations, particularly under Prabowo Subianto’s leadership, will be a critical challenge. As the situation in the South China Sea continues to evolve, the dynamics of this agreement will play a pivotal role in shaping the future of regional security and international relations.