EXPLAINER

As the region anticipates what an Iranian response to Israeli assassinations will be, US moves forces to the region.

The United States has deployed a naval strike group to the Eastern Mediterranean amidst increased tensions following Israel’s killing of Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut and the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.

The killings took place within hours of each other on July 30 and 31, with Haniyeh’s death also blamed on Israel, although it has not officially claimed responsibility.

The deployment follows a call on Sunday between US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and Israeli Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant in anticipation of an Iranian counterstrike.

In a statement released by the Pentagon afterwards, Austin “reiterated the United States’ commitment to take every possible step to defend Israel and noted the strengthening of US military force posture and capabilities throughout the Middle East in light of escalating regional tensions”.

What are the stakes?

Observers are concerned that any retaliation to the two assassinations, from either Iran or its ally Hezbollah, could spark a wider regional war and potentially draw in the US in support of its ally Israel.

The deployment of the strike force comes at a time when critics of the US administration are calling upon it to use its influence to impose a ceasefire, the US news channel CNBC reported. US President Joe Biden has also criticised the conduct of the war on Gaza, characterising Israel’s operations in the enclave as “over the top” in February, and repeatedly saying that “too many” civilians had been killed. However, that has not led to any forceful attempts to get Israel to stop its assault on Gaza, such as a ban on arms sales, or other sanctions.

Many countries, including Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Jordan and a number of Western states, have urged their citizens to evacuate Lebanon, fearing that the country could be heavily attacked by Israel if the latter is hit by direct strikes. Simultaneously, a number of airlines have suspended flights to Israel, Jordan and Lebanon.

What is the US hoping to achieve by deploying the naval task force to the region?

According to Gordon Gray, a professor and former US ambassador, “the announcement of the deployment of the carrier strike group is intended to deter Iran rather than to escalate the situation”.

Biden ordered a similar deployment to the eastern Mediterranean in October of last year, when one of the largest aircraft carriers in the world, the USS Gerald R Ford, steamed to the region, where it was joined by vessels and spy planes from the United Kingdom. At the time, US officials framed the deployment as a bid to deter Hezbollah and Iran from “taking advantage” of Israel’s war on Gaza, then in its early stages. Israel has now killed almost 40,000 Palestinians in the war.

Omar Rahman, a fellow at the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, said that he believes the “US is clearly signaling to Iran that [it] will be part of any fight ahead, likely to deter Iran from a significant retaliation against Israel”.

Which vessels has the US deployed?

The strike group, led by the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and its squadron of F-35C fighter jets, was already heading towards the region, where it was scheduled to replace the USS Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier. Austin has now ordered it to increase its speed. Additionally, the USS Georgia, a nuclear-powered submarine carrying guided missiles that was already present within the Mediterranean, has been deployed to the area.

Is this an escalation?

HA Hellyer of the Royal United Service Institute (RUSI) believes that the show of force is intended to limit the chances of escalation, without the US having to confront the behaviour of its ally Israel and its war on Gaza.

However, restricting the odds of any escalation while also taking a hands-off approach to the actions of the Israeli government is likely to be challenging, not least when dealing with a state that has proven itself “incredibly reckless”, Hellyer noted.

“A lack of accountability ensures impunity, and [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu has broken pretty much every rhetorical red line that Biden has set down, and will keep doing so, until he thinks there will be real consequences,” he said.