EXPLAINER

The senior Hamas leader was assassinated early Wednesday. Al Jazeera breaks down what happened — and what could follow.

Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, 62, has been killed in a predawn strike in Iran. His killing threatens the stability of the region and increases the risk of the Gaza war escalating into a regional conflict.

Here is what we know about his killing, the context and the reactions.

What happened to Haniyeh and when?

• At around 2am local time (22:30 GMT) on Wednesday, Haniyeh was killed by an “airborne guided projectile.” His bodyguard was also killed.
• He was assassinated on the first day of Iranian President Masaoud Pezeshkian’s term. Haniyeh had travelled to Tehran for Pezeshkian’s inauguration on Tuesday.
• Haniyeh was last seen at Pezeshkian’s inauguration. According to local reports, during the meeting Iranian president reiterated the commitment of the Iranian people to the cause of Palestinian freedom while Haniyah expressed gratitude for his position.

Where in Iran did it happen?

• Early reports said the strike targeted “the special residences for war veterans in north Tehran” where Haniyeh was staying.
• Analysts suggest that the timing and location were chosen to embarrass Tehran.
• “What happened in Tehran was a bad thing for the Iranian security apparatus … and that’s why Iran will somehow feel it has to respond to this,” Abas Aslani, a fellow at the Center for Middle East Strategic Studies in Tehran, told Al Jazeera.

Who was Haniyeh?

• Haniyeh was widely considered Hamas’s political leader and has been a prominent member of the movement for more than two decades.
• In 2006, at the age of 44, he led Hamas to a legislative election over the Fatah movement which had been in power for more than 10 years.
• However, he was dismissed after the West refused to work with Hamas. He was elected head of Hamas’s political bureau in 2017 and the US Department of State designated him a “terrorist” in 2018.
• In 2019, having stepped down as Hamas head in Gaza, Haniyeh left the enclave and began living abroad, leading the group’s diplomatic efforts as its political chief.
• On April 10, 2024, three of his children – Hazem, Amir and Mohammad, along with a number of his grandchildren — were killed in Gaza, amid the continuing war.
• He has lived in Qatar for the past several years.

Who killed Haniyeh?

• It is unclear, but Hamas accused Israel of carrying out the strike, calling it a “grave escalation.” Iran, too, has blamed Israel for the assassination.
• Israel has not yet issued a response or statement. However, following the October 7 attacks, which resulted in 1,200 deaths and hundreds taken hostage, Israeli leaders pledged to “crush and destroy Hamas”.
• Iran says the US also bears responsibility for the killing because of its support for Israel.
• Hasan Ayoub, assistant professor of political sciences at An-Najah University in Nablus, told Al Jazeera that Israel would not have dared to make two attacks of this level unless “Netanyahu got unconditional support” after he visited Washington early this month. The second attack Ayoub was referring to was the strike on a Beirut suburb on Tuesday night, targeting Hezbollah commander Fuad Shakr.
• Al Jazeera’s Defence Editor Alex Gatopoulos says the intelligence used to locate and assassinate Haniyeh “suggests the possible help of the US”. “Intelligence is key. Any weapon in the world is only as good as the intelligence that guides it. It can be as accurate as it likes,” Gatopoulos said.

How does this impact the Israel war on Gaza?

• During Israel’s war on Gaza, Haniyeh was perceived as a critical interlocutor in ceasefire negotiations brokered by Qatar, the US and Egypt. Those talks now face an uncertain future, despite indications that they were close to yielding a framework agreement.
• According to analysts, the assassination is a “huge blow” and has ended the chances of an imminent agreement.
• “How can mediation succeed when one party assassinates the negotiator on the other side?” Qatar’s Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, a mediator in the talks, posted on X on Wednesday.
• “Peace needs serious partners & a global stance against the disregard for human life,” Al Thani wrote.

Political assassinations & continued targeting of civilians in Gaza while talks continue leads us to ask, how can mediation succeed when one party assassinates the negotiator on the other side? Peace needs serious partners & a global stance against the disregard for human life.

— محمد بن عبدالرحمن (@MBA_AlThani_) July 31, 2024

Who could succeed Haniyeh?

• According to reports, two probable successors could be Khaled Meshaal, a veteran Hamas official, and Khalil al-Hayya, an important Hamas figure who was closely associated with Haniyeh.
• “It will not be easy,” Hani al-Masri, an expert on Palestinian organisations, told The Associated Press.
• “Hamas’ new political leader will have to decide on whether to continue the military option, and become essentially a guerrilla and underground group, or choose a leader that can offer political compromises – an unlikely option at this stage.”
• Yahya Sinwar, who masterminded the October 7 Hamas attacks on Israeli cities, is expected to remain the commander in Gaza.

What’s the wider context?

• The killing came just hours after a strike on a senior Hezbollah commander in Beirut, in retaliation for a rocket attack in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights over the weekend that killed 12 people.
• The targeted attacks on two senior Iran-backed leaders in the space of 24 hours have raised fears of further conflict in the region.
• “We should be aware that the assassination came hours after the assassination [attempt] in southern Beirut, as if Israel was sending a message that it’s capable of reaching various leaders … whether that be from Hezbollah or Hamas in Gaza or outside Gaza, even if that means clear violation of a country’s sovereignty,” said Ayoub of An-Najah University.

What are the reactions?

• Gaza and Palestine: Reporting from Deir el-Balah in central Gaza, Al Jazeera’s Hani Mahmoud said the killing was “significant” for the people of Gaza because he was leading negotiations that they hoped would lead to a ceasefire.
• “Palestinians across Gaza and the West Bank also view Ismail Haniyeh as a moderate leader who is much more pragmatic compared to other leaders who head the military side of the movement,” Mahmoud said.
• Hamas: “This assassination by the Israeli occupation of Brother Haniyeh is a grave escalation that aims to break the will of Hamas and the will of our people and achieve fake goals. We confirm that this escalation will fail to achieve its objectives,” said senior Hamas official Sami Abu Zuhri.
• “Hamas is a concept and an institution and not persons. Hamas will continue on this path regardless of the sacrifices and we are confident of victory.”
• US: Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that the US was not “aware of or involved in” the death of Haniyeh. Separately, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said he does not think war in the Middle East is inevitable, but if Israel were to be attacked, the US would help defend it.
• China: “We are highly concerned about the incident and firmly oppose and condemn the assassination,” Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said. “Gaza should achieve a comprehensive and permanent ceasefire as soon as possible.”
• Turkey: Haniyeh’s killing “once again demonstrates that Israel’s Netanyahu government has no intention of achieving peace”, Turkey’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement. “[The] region will face much larger conflicts if [the] international community does not take action to stop Israel.”

For more reactions, read our piece.

What comes next?

• In the short term: Haniyeh’s body will be buried in Qatar, after a funeral service in Tehran. The service will be held in Iran on Thursday at 8am (04:30 GMT).
• After that, Hamas said Haniyeh’s body will be transferred to the Qatari capital, Doha, on Thursday. Muslim funeral prayers will be held there on Friday, before his body is buried in a cemetery in Lusail, Qatar’s second-largest city.
• The Iranian government has declared three days of public mourning, state-run IRNA news agency reported.
• In the long term: According to analysts, a further escalation in regional tensions cannot be ruled out. Abas Aslani, a fellow at the Center for Middle East Strategic Studies in Tehran, said the event will reverberate across the region and beyond.
• “At the moment, as we speak, an escalation seems inevitable,” Aslani said, adding that the killing comes just as the new Iranian president, Pezeshkian, was speaking of dialogue and engagement with the West.
• “We might be saying goodbye for now to the ceasefire because this can escalate into a regional war. The Israel PM is trying to do everything in order to prolong his political life. He wants to continue the war [in Gaza], and I think this is meant to not only impact the processes in Tehran and the region, but also in Washington, as well,” he said.